[OC] THE BEST BET TO WIN: "Coach of the Year"
In this series, we're going to take a look at some "futures" bets online to gauge the best bets for different awards.
Now, these aren't pure predictions as much as indications of value. Someone may be the most likely pick to win MVP at 5:1, but if another player has nearly as good of a chance and is listed at 50:1, that longshot is the better "bet."
We're going to go through a laundry list of candidates, vetting them all, before indicating our best bet in each category. Today we'll move to "Coach of the Year."
######STUDYING THE TRENDS
If you look back at the previous winners, you can see that they usually fall into three categories.
A) the coach with the best team (by far.) This is actually the least common type of winner, but it's the easiest to predict. If you have the best team, you can make the case that you're the best coach. However, to really win based on this type of campaign, you have to coach the best team BY FAR. A runaway landslide winner, like Secretariat on the track. In fact, the only time Phil Jackson won "Coach of the Year" was when the Bulls went 72-10. Steve Kerr won the year the Warriors broke that record and went 73-9. A more obtainable number may be Mike Brown's 66-16 year with the Cavs back in 2008-09.
B) the coach with the biggest turnaround. The media loves a good narrative, so a coach who can magically flip a switch is always an obvious candidate to win. Last year, winner Tom Thibodeau turned the Knicks from a 21-45 team into a 41-31 playoff team. The fact that Thibodeau was a new hire also cemented that storyline. Rookie coaches have a little advantage in that regard.
C) the coach with the biggest overachievement. Sometimes, those turnarounds have a caveat attached. If LeBron James suddenly joins your roster, we'd expect a massive boost in the standings. Oftentimes, the Coach of the Year winner is a coach that exceeded his preseason expectations. Thibodeau fit that bill as well last year, easily thumping his preseason over/under of 21.5 (by a bargain of 19.5 wins.) Runner-up Monty Williams beat his preseason win total by 12.5 wins. Third place Quin Snyder beat his preseason expectations by 11.5. More than any other metric, the "overachievement" is the easiest path to winning the trophy.
All in all, certain coaches will be hurt by these trends. Monty Williams (+1000) and Quin Snyder (+1000) both had their best shot last season; now that people know how good their teams are, it'll be hard for them to overachieve. And while Doc Rivers (+2500) had his fair share of flak in the playoffs, it'll be hard for him to top his regular season success last year when the Sixers grabbed the # 1 seed. I'd also discount the chances for Golden State coach Steve Kerr (+1000). The fact that he's won before and that his team has won before hurts his "new"-ness and thus his narrative.
######CANDIDATES TO COACH THE CLEAR BEST TEAM
In my opinion, there are 3 teams that stand on top of the NBA right now: the Brooklyn Nets, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the L.A. Lakers.
It'd be hardest for coach Mike Budenholzer (+2000 odds) to take home the trophy again, because he already did it twice before -- once with the Hawks and once with the Bucks. Theoretically, he can be a candidate if the Bucks rack up a gaudy total of 65+ wins, but even then I don't think he'd rally up a huge amount of voter support.
It's also hard for me to foresee a Frank Vogel (+1200) campaign, mostly because I don't anticipate LeBron James pushing that hard in the regular season to drive home 60+ wins. The Lakers aren't the type of team that's going to be afraid of going on the road in the playoffs, so as long as they settle into a top 4 seed, they should prioritize health over seeding.
Of those three superpowers, I'd say Steve Nash (+900) is the most likely winner. The Nets are so talented that they may accidentally rattle off 60+ wins even if they're going on cruise control. If they run up gaudy totals like 66-16, Nash will have to be considered and will indeed earn some praise for managing his superstar's egos. Still, this is a feasible campaign and not a likely one.
If another team grabs a # 1 seed, that coach would have an easier lane. However, as mentioned, Doc Rivers, Quin Snyder, and Monty Williams' chances are hurt by the fact that they were top seeds last year already. They'd have to lead their conference by 4-5 games to generate momentum for a repeat campaign. Coaches who may be able to jump up to the 1 or 2 line without having done it before include Nate McMillan (+1400) and Jason Kidd (+1500); if either did that, they'd have more of a storyline on their side.
######CANDIDATES TO COACH THE BIGGEST W-L TURNAROUND
Turnaround artists always have a great chance of winning the trophy, and some coaches will enter the year with a leg up in that regard.
Chicago coach Billy Donovan (+1100) is one of those coaches, and should be hiring a publicity staff for his Coach of the Year campaign already. His Bulls finished a disappointing 31-41 last year, but will enter the season with a preseason over/under of 41.5 wins. Even if he hits that expectation, he'd be able to cite an improvement of 8+ wins (adjusted for 82-games.) Certainly, a lot of the enthusiasm for that is based on the free agent signings, but neither DeMar DeRozan or Lonzo Ball are the type of All-NBA candidates that would take away the spotlight. If the Bulls rise up into the top 6 with a team effort, Donovan's the most likely recipient of that praise. He finished 3rd in the voting in 2019-20, so he's earned the respect of the media already.
There are a few Eastern Conference teams that disappointed last year -- Miami (42-30), Boston (36-36), Indiana (34-38), and Toronto (27-45). Based on Vegas over/unders, they're all projected to win 5+ more games than last year. However, I don't know if that will be seen as a "turnaround" as much as a "bounceback" for those teams since they've all experienced the playoffs recently.
The oddsmakers are still bullish on their chances though, listing Miami coach Erik Spoelstra (+850) as one of the favorites for the award. The Heat are projected to win 47.5 games and if they surpass 50+, then maybe Spoelstra can generate some buzz. For him, it may be something of a career achievement award. Despite being one of the most respected coaches in the NBA, he's never won Coach of the Year before. He's finished as the runner-up twice (in 2013 and in 2017), but the actual trophy has eluded him. Could he turn that into narrative (like longtime snubs Martin Scorsese or Susan Lucci)? Maybe, but those odds aren't very appealing.
Among those other Eastern semi-powers, Indiana coach Rick Carlisle (+3000) may be a better value bet. He's won Coach of the Year before (way back in 2002), but that was long enough ago that he'd have the chance to re-set the narrative and earn some extra votes. He's also in an advantageous situation with Indiana given their bad 34-38 record. As long as they're healthy and connected to Carlisle's coaching style, they may boost back into the 44-win range again. The fact that Carlisle is a new hire will also help his cause.
Boston coach Ime Udoka (+1500) will also have a reasonable chance for a sizable spike in wins given the team's poor 36-36 record, but the bar will be higher than that suggests given the Celtics' recent success. He may need to grab a top 2 seed to win, regardless of whether he's a new hire or not. And even if Nick Nurse (+5000) leads his team to 15-20 more wins than last year, it'd be hard for him to get back on the podium given the fact that he's such a recent winner.
Other coaches whose teams are capable of taking a step up include Charlotte's James Borrego (+2000), Memphis' Taylor Jenkins (+2200), and New Orleans' Willie Green (+3000). I'm not particularly high on those bets, but maybe some people are.
######CANDIDATES TO COACH THE HIGHEST OVERACHIEVEMENT
It's easy to guess which teams will have the best record this year -- it's easy to guess what teams will improve in the standings from last year -- but it's a lot harder to guess what teams will beat current expectations. I tracked my over/under picks from last season and went 17-13; that's solid, but not much better than 50/50 and not anything to crow about. Still, for this category, we have to toss a dart at some potential overachievers.
If the goal is to target teams that Vegas is sleeping on, we want to focus on teams with the least hype. That'd definitely describe the L.A. Clippers right now on the heels of Kawhi Leonard's injury. According to Vegas over/under, the Clippers are projected to win 44.5 games and to fight for their playoff lives. There's absolutely a chance the Clippers miss the playoffs, but there's also a decent chance that they hang tough and keep chugging along. This is a talented roster, overseen by a quality coach in Ty Lue (+2000). Remember, the Clippers were 2nd in SRS power rankings last year despite Kawhi Leonard missing 20 games. They hung tough in the playoffs without Kawhi Leonard as well. The media narrative on Lue has also changed lately, and voters may be ready to acknowledge his tactics as top notch. Better still, we're seen this exact narrative -- a team hangs tough despite losing Kawhi Leonard -- work before, as it's exactly the same storyline Nick Nurse had when he won the award in 2020.
Injuries and lowered expectations will also be the story in Denver, as the Nuggets will be without star Jamal Murray for much of the season. Their preseason over/under is 47.5 wins -- a high total, but a number that's below their winning percentage from each of the last three seasons. It'll be hard to match that without Murray, but Monte Morris is a capable backup and Michael Porter Jr. is capable of absorbing a lot of those scoring opportunities. If the team wins 50 games, Mike Malone (+1200) should get a lot of praise. Ironically, Malone's best asset -- Nikola Jokic -- may be his biggest detriment here. If the Nuggets do overachieve, Jokic will soak up a lot of that credit.
Adding a newcomer to the list, I'd highlight Mike Malone's former assistant Wes Unseld Jr. (+4500), now the head coach in Washington. No one's particularly excited about the Wizards right now -- and that's a good thing for his betting odds. Yes, the Wizards lost Russell Westbrook, but they gained a few rotational pieces and should have better depth this year. Unseld's defensive schemes will presumably be better than Scottie Brooks' as well (they can't be worse.) There's a good chance the bottom falls out, they trade Beal, and they go into tank mode... but there's also a decent chance they improve on last year's 34-38 record. If Unseld can get them to .500, it'd mean a 7.5 game overachievement based on preseason expectations (33.5 O/U.)
######AT LONG LAST, THE OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS...
There are a lot of good candidates out there and a lot of potential winners. Given that, we have to factor in the odds each coach has been given and make the determination on best value.
And based on that, my pick would be Chris Finch (+4000 odds) in Minnesota.
Finch isn't a new new coach, as he was hired in midseason in an unconventional move. Exec Gersson Rosas jumped the gun early there, not even waiting for the offseason cycle to interview candidates. In a way, it's like a kid proposing to his college girlfriend. In theory, you may want to get out into the open market and test the waters, but if you strongly believe this is the best you're going to do -- then you may as well lock it down.
I tend to agree with Rosas on that logic. I've been hyping up Finch for a while now myself based on his excellent resume. He's had success throughout the basketball world. He started in Britain -- and won the league title. He moved to Belgium -- and won Coach of the Year. He came back home to the G-League -- and won the title and Coach of the Year once again. He's also proven his chops as an assistant in the NBA over the last few years, specializing as an uptempo offensive coordinator. Better still, that experience came with high usage big men (Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis/DeMarcus Cousins) so he should be a natural fit with Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota. The fact that Finch had a half-season headstart as a new coach should only be to his advantage. He's already off and running on improving the schemes and playing style.
There's also an excellent opportunity for a turnaround storyline here. The Wolves went 23-49 last year, and they have a talent-laden young roster highlighted by Towns and Anthony Edwards. Vegas is already expecting them to improve to 33.5 wins (their over/under), and they may even be better than that. That said, the bar is going to be high for "Coach of the Year." A noble 10th seed isn't going to get it done. The Wolves will have to be around .500 and in the thick of the race for the 8th seed.
Is that likely? No. It's still a very young team. Anthony Edwards just turned 20. Naz Reid just turned 22 (literally, it was his birthday yesterday.) Rising PF Jaden McDaniels is 20. These guys may be 3-4 years away from their primes.
But... it's not out of the question. And we have to remember the odds again here. +4000 translates to 40:1, which translates to about a 2.4% chance of happening. I'd say the Timberwolves odds of going .500 are higher than that, which makes Finch a good value bet. So while a coach like Billy Donovan may be the most likely winner in a vacuum, Finch is our "best bet" for that reason.
Posted Aug 27, 2021, 12:12 PM UTC · edited