NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking all the teams, ending at the top 3
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
We've already gone through Tier 2, Tier 3, Tier 4, Tier 5 and Tier 6 and there's only one place to go now: the top.
######TIER 1: THE TOP BANANAS
At the top of the trifle, Rachel added some sliced bananas. There's no doubt that these three teams represent (at least, at this stage) the top bananas in the NBA.
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(3) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
last year: There was definitely a title hangover to the Lakers' 2020-21 season. In fact, Anthony Davis barely showed up. The team finished a disappointing 42-30 and needed to win a play-in game to crack the field. And any hope that the team could simply flip a switch in the playoffs didn't work, as AD got hurt again and the team fell 4-2 to the Phoenix Suns. To Frank Vogel's credit, the team maintained their # 1 rank on defense despite a slew of injuries.
losses: LeBron James is not the type of player/shadow-GM to take a loss like that lying down. The team shed starting PG Dennis Schroder, starting SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and top rotation players like Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, and Markieff Morris. That change should be felt in the regular season; in fact, Schroder, Kuzma, KCP, and Harrell were actually the top 4 on the team in terms of total minutes played.
gains: LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be healthier than last year (when they combined to play 81 regular season games), which will be an immediate help. More help is on the way in the form of Russell Westbrook. Love him or hate him, he'll give you everything he's got for 35 minutes a night. The team added disparate pieces around their new "Big 3," with some young guns like Kendrick Nunn and Malik Monk, and some savvy vets like Wayne Ellington, Kent Bazemore, Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, and LeBron's buddy Carmelo Anthony.
projected record: The Westbrook trade was polarizing, but to me it indicates two things about LeBron James. 1) He's acknowledging that he needs a great deal of rest in the regular season and needs someone like Westbrook to help carry the team during those lulls. And 2) He trusts himself (and Rich Paul) to recruit bargain free agents that can replace the KCPs and Alex Carusos of the world. That latter part may be hit or miss. The Lakers' perimeter defense may have been their most underrated quality during their title run, so going from that to Westbrook and Wayne Ellington should be a downgrade on that end. I don't anticipate a major shift in the regular season record, so 53-29 sounds realistic. The bigger question is how the Lakers will do in the playoffs. Presuming they go small with AD at the 5 when it matters most, they'll still need someone else to step up on the wing. If I'm a Lakers fan, I need one of the young players to be that guy, be it Nunn, Monk, or Talen Horton-Tucker. One of the 3 needs to step up and become a reliable 6th man scorer. The trouble is: LeBron James has never had much patience for growing pains in the past. If the Lakers don't trust the youngsters and over-rely on over-the-hill veterans like Trevor Ariza and Carmelo Anthony to play major minutes instead, then I'd like their chances less. Overall I'm going with a 15% title odds based on the greatness of LeBron James and Anthony Davis alone, but honestly I may have gone even higher if the team simply ran it back from last year.
(2) MILWAUKEE BUCKS
last year: The Milwaukee Bucks showed that it's possible to sleep on a 2-time top seed and a 2-time defending MVP. Their solid 46-26 regular season felt like a snoozer because it wasn't as good as the years before, and Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't even crack the top 3 in MVP as a result (I would have had him # 2 behind Nikola Jokic personally.) Come playoff time, the Bucks proved all the skeptics wrong, starting out with a smashing sweep of Miami and rolling all the way to the NBA title. It wasn't easy, and it wasn't without some good luck, but it's still a fitting reward for a team that's been awesome the last three seasons.
losses: The Bucks will roll it back with almost the exact same roster from last year. The most notable absence will be P.J. Tucker, who came on to play 29.6 minutes per night in the playoffs. To me, that's not a bad loss. The media loves Tucker, but he hasn't found his shot lately and hasn't been a major factor on the court. The team may actually be better off without him in the regular season.
gains: Milwaukee traded for SG Grayson Allen, a decent player who will also help their goal of collecting every white SG in the league. George Hill is back to play backup PG; even at age 35, he should be solid in that role. The team also added some wing depth like Rodney Hood and Semi Ojeleye, although ideally young players like Jordan Nwora would beat them out for minutes.
projected record: Despite taking a slight step back last year in terms of record, Milwaukee may be the best bet to win 60 games this year. They're a well-oiled machine that can cruise to 55-27 in their sleep. For them, the playoffs will be the only thing that matters. They're going to have to kill off the few holdover skeptics by beating a healthy Brooklyn Nets (and potentially the Lakers as well), and they'll have a good chance of doing that. I'm marking them down for a 20% chance of a repeat. To make that happen, they need to hope that either Grayson Allen or Donte DiVicenzo can be that reliable 4th scorer. They managed to win despite DiVicenzo's injury last year, but the bar could be even higher this year.
(1) BROOKLYN NETS
last year: How good are the Brooklyn Nets? They were basically on cruise control last season and still went 48-24. How good at the Brooklyn Nets? They almost beat the eventually champion Bucks despite losing Kyrie Irving and despite James Harden looking like a shell of himself. If there's any concern here, it's the fact that their defense ranked # 23 overall and will lose top assistant Ime Udoka to boot. David Vanterpool will take over as the "DC" so to speak, but his history of success post Portland has been underwhelming.
losses: Aside from Udoka, OC Mike D'Antoni won't return either. Those may not seem like notable losses, but a brain drain like that can have an effect in the long term. On the court, there's not much of note. Former Nets core members like Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert, and Jarrett Allen barely played for the team last year. Departing veterans Jeff Green (27.0 MPG) and Landry Shamet (23.0 MPG) played quite a bit more and will represent moderate losses to the rotation.
gains: Arguably, the Nets' rotation will take an upgrade. Olympic hero Patty Mills will help back up Kyrie Irving, and cage fighter James Johnson will add some punch to the frontcourt. There are a few other new deep pieces of note: PG Jevon Carter is a good defender, DeAndre' Bembry can be a minutes-filler, and rookie Day'Ron Sharpe (UNC) could join the rotation down the road. But among the lesser names, rookie Cam Thomas (LSU) is the most intriguing. He's a mad bomber who will remind you of Jordan Clarkson.
projected record: For Brooklyn, it's all a matter of health. Even if they coast through the regular season, they can still go 56-26. For them, the goal will be to make the playoffs healthy. Because if Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant all play at 100%, the Nets should be the prohibitive favorite to win the title. If you could guarantee that health, then I may even take them against the field. But pragmatically, we can't count on any of those "Big 3" to be at 100% come playoff time. For that reason, I'll downgrade their chances to 30%. More than anything, I'd want to see that James Harden can enter the year and be the same iron horse that he'd been in the past. If he can sustain that level, then the team would be a top 3 contender even with an injury to Irving.
Posted Aug 15, 2021, 9:53 PM UTC · edited