32 Teams, 32 Weeks: An analysis for r/nfl - Week 3: Dallas Cowboys
32 Team Analysis
Week 3: Dallas Cowboys
Division: NFC East
Record: 8-8 (2-4 Div.)
PF: 369
PA: 347
Net: 22
YPG: 375.5 (11th)
YAPG: 343.2 (14th)
Draft Picks: 14, 45, 83, 114, 145, 176, 207
UFAs
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WR – Laurent Robinson
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TE – Martellus Bennett
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P – Mat McBriar
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OG – Derrick Dockery
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OG – Montrae Holland
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LB – Keith Brooking
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LB – Bradie James
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LB – Anthony Spencer
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CB – Alan Ball
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FS – Abram Elam
Analysis
Highs:
From a statistical standpoint, Romo continues to improve and posted his best season this year. He threw for 31 TDs and only 10 interceptions, kept a completion percentage of 66.3%, and finished with a passer rating of 102.5, the 4th highest in the league. The criticisms of him are by and large ignorant, because even though he posted lowered passer ratings of 96.7 in the 2nd half and 94.7 in the last 2 minutes of games(still good for 6th in the league), when a team loses by 4 or fewer points 5 times, it can’t be blamed so heavily on the QB.
With the emergence of Laurent Robinson from relative anonymity, and if they can hang on to him, the Cowboys could be sitting on a top 3 receiving corps. With Miles Austin healthy and acting as #1 and Robinson and Bryant fighting for the #2 spot, as well as Jason Witten, Romo should never lack for an open receiver and could very well produce another personal best statistical season in 2012.
Also seemingly out of nowhere, the Cowboys ended up with a potentially elite RB on their roster. DeMarco Murray exploded onto the scene when Felix Jones got hurt and in his limited time was able to show his incredible burst, averaging a fantastic 5.5 YPC. What this means is that next year they will be able to start Murray but not rely strictly on him, reducing the risk of injuries for both.
The linebackers were once again some of the best in the league at what they do. DeMarcus Ware posted the highest sack total amongst LBs with 19.5(2nd in the league behind Allen) as well as 2 forced fumbles, Sean Lee had 105 tackles and 4 interceptions, and Anthony Spencer, although inconsistent at times, recorded 66 tackles, resulting in 4 forced fumbles. The only real issues here are depth and pending losses in FA.
Lows:
The offensive line ranked in the 10 worst of 2011 in QB hits and tackles for a loss and in the bottom half of the league in sacks allowed and total sack yards. Those numbers would likely be worse if it weren’t for Romo’s quick thinking and having Witten as a safety valve. On top of that, center Phil Costas had serious issues with controlling his snaps all season, creating further difficulties for Romo. Tyron Smith might be the only member of the OL with a long term future on the team as he improved as the year went on.
The DLine was largely ineffective, accounting for well under half of the total sacks and only 78 tackles among the 3 starters. They relied heavily on the LBs for both run stopping and pass rushing, which in turn put too much pressure on the DBs.
Under that pressure the Cowboys secondary crumbled. Over the last 7 games of the season the Cowboys DBs allowed opposing QBs to have QB ratings averaging 20.6 points higher than their yearly rating, largely contributing to losses against Philadelphia, New York, and Arizona. Terrence Newman is getting old and was definitely a contributing factor to the decline, only defending 2 passes and going without an interception in those 7 games. They need to find a replacement and relegate him to playing backup.
Special teams was another deficiency with a poor average on punt returns, 0 return TDs, and short average yards on punts. Special teams rankings tend to change dramatically from year to year, so this isn’t a serious concern going forward.
Free Agency/Draft Concerns:
Things look relatively open for the Cowboys this offseason as they are sitting on 12+ million in salary cap space without many big free agents to resign. It’s also been rumored they may do more restructuring on some of their more costly players’ contracts to make even more space.
Laurent Robinson, Abram Elam, and Anthony spencer might be the only UFAs worth resigning. They may keep some of the others, but they certainly aren’t going to be over paying.
If DE Billy Winn fell to #14 in the draft, I imagine they’ll snatch him up, otherwise they will likely be looking to add at least one in the 2nd or 3rd round. It’s more likely, however, that OG David DeCastro will fall to them.
There is a strong CB free agency class so I expect they will use some of their extra cap space trying to land either one of the top prospects or several relatively young guys with potential.
Final Thoughts:
The best way to take advantage of a high scoring offense is with a turnover producing defense, so Ryan needs to focus on improving the pass rush and forcing QB errors. In his second full year as head coach Garrett will have help from a new OC, hopefully allowing him to focus a little more on the big picture and growing into the role. Romo is on the verge of elite but getting deep into the playoffs is probably the only way to get that recognition, so he’ll have to try to mask his team's deficiencies. Depending on how the offseason goes, the Cowboys are likely to be a dark horse pick for the Super Bowl again in 2012.
Did I make any mistakes? Let me know.
Previous Teams
Upcoming Teams (subject to change)
Week 4: San Diego Chargers
Week 5: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6: Green Bay Packers
Week 7: Houston Texans
Posted Feb 9, 2012, 9:37 PM UTC