Will crypto winter begin after Xmas again?
The 4 year BTC cycle is looking to revert back to a deep winter once again.
Traditionally, I'd look to sell down most of my holding ahead of the holiday season. Then start buying again when things are cheap again.
But what changed significantly is the covid-fuelled recession we had.
First the deep red share market in March 2020. Some of us bought shares for cheap and made good profits. Some of us even kept buying crypto throughout the end of 2020 when BTC and ETH were creeping back up.
Only for January - February 2021 to be an insane time in the crypto market. NFTs were dominating the headlines with artists making bank with their crypto gains.
The GameStop fiasco also got more people interested in share and crypto trading. I believe a certain loop.coin is pumping not only because it's a legitimate project but because the GME apes see strong potential in it.
So what's changed since Covid?
House prices went nuts in most developed countries. Commodity prices boomed. Materials boomed. Chip shortages are being carried on. Hence why the second car market is still insane. Graphic cards and RAM chips have shot up in prices.
Inflation is legitimate and real and according to most investment banks, it'll be the greatest challenge next year. Groceries have increased in costs, timber prices have gone up, car parts have increased, everything is now more expensive.
On the jobs side, lots of boomers retired. The high costs of air tickets have meant that travel is not at pre-covid levels and border restrictions are still a serious issue. There's a genuine talent shortage all around the world.
Low interest rates from last year meant businesses and individuals borrowed a fuck ton of cheap money. Stimulus meant a lot of people got money doing nothing really but used it to spend to stimulate the economy.
So if we zoom out, the share market is overheated. The housing markets are very overheated and now the crypto markets are in full mania phase.
Shit doesn't look good according to old school boomer economists. Because our global society is living off cheap interest rates, borrowed money, time and over printing of money.
What will cause shit to give in? Evergrande or the number of illiquid developers in China unable to repay their debts?
You tell me.
TL;DR: I'm uncertain whether crypto winter will begin or be delayed much longer. What's your opinion?
Posted Nov 13, 2021, 3:47 AM UTC · edited
I personally don’t think we will ever see a bear market of 2017 caliber again. Too many people would buy the discounts first off, and the markets by and large are at a critical mass I think - btc will never go below 10k again
Is saw this exact comment(with one number changed) in 2018.
I agree, we'll never see 10k. I think most people would consider BC at 30k for 3 months to be a winter now.
If I ever saw a 10k Bitcoin I would buy it up so fast
The past shows us you likely would not ...
I legit would.
That's the exact same thing people said last time.
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If you look at past performance, btc should not go below 40k(!) again. I know, seems crazy for now.
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”Too many people would buy” If inflation is high, people will have to spend more on basic commodities and loan payments. They won’t have money to buy bitcoin.
💯 agree.
Majority always wrong. When we think we're in a bull market, they will prove otherwise. Whale and market maker always know how normie thinks
You’re probably right but also anything is possible it wouldn’t exactly be defying the laws of gravity if it went to 5k it’s entirely 100% possible.
Highly unlikely but imagine a security exploit or something. You could have a massive “run for the hills” moment triggered by any one of many long tail black swan events.
Out of all comments, I'm not surprised yours is upvoted the highest.
There will absolutely be a bear market and unfortunately it will likely be bad. The sharemarkets and housing markets are insane as well. There's just too much money pumped in it. History will repeat itself like it always does.
I just feel it'll be delayed this time. My guess is that it'll happen after January.
I just respectfully disagree. Crypto makes no sense and trying to predict is doesn’t do us much good. If anything I would suppose rampant inflation will see to it we never see a crash like 2017 again.
At the end of the day, crypto is just another asset class.
Before most high end investors and institutions even got into crypto (literally the past 18 months), their portfolio would have real estate, many blue chips shares spread across different sectors, physical gold/silver and angel investments. There were also collectibles but what crypto convinced many to jump on board was 2 major things. The technology and the returns.
But that's the thing about crypto. It's extremely volatile being unregulated.
To somebody with a lot of money, they can go with whoever provides the best returns. If Insto A realising taking more risk by getting into crypto is better but also diversifies your portfolio and recognises the beautiful part of specific projects, why not?
Because what's the alternative? Low interest rates at Bank Basic saying they're great but don't provide much. Nah man.
Crypto is an awesome higher risk asset class to diversify your portfolio. It can also be a hedge against inflation from an economics side. But I don't think it's bullet proof.
But what goes up has to come down at some point. The alt coins which have exploded in the past month have to have a correction as people take profits because they've never commanded such an ATH before.
Sure, I’m not exactly arguing there won’t be a bear market or that there won’t be a correction. I just don’t think we’ll see a mythical 90% correction
You know when people say never, it never ends up well. They were saying the same thing in 2017. I really think early 2022 will see a general market crash, Evergrande has some important date in late January. Don’t ask me what, I’m an ape