Source
r/FO76ForumRefugees•
golfguy_mark

SS Armour crafting RNG gods hate me

Discussion

Today I crafted 10 SS armour pieces (2 of each) to use up my legendary modules, and of the ten, FOUR were Nocturnal. I am not sure of the proper probabilities of this happening but with 20 different primary types it should be long odds indeed. A distribution curve would predict the most common nocturnal at 0.5 (so 0 or 1 most likely outcomes, and 4 would be fairly extreme... see math below)

ps. of course, none were Unyielding, Vanguard, or Weightless (I did get one chameleon but it was a 1-star)

My old college math tells me the odds of getting one particular type (1:20 to get nocturnal in this case) on a binomial distribution as being about 60% to get Zero (0), 31.5% to get One (1), 7.5% to get Two (2), around 1% to get Three (3) and less than 0.1% to get more than three. So my total of four is virtually zero; I don't imagine the RNG is completely Random.

Posted Jan 6, 2022, 6:20 AM UTC

916
TBDBITLSD•

You would have a difficult time convincing me that everything is programmed to be equally random too. From the moment we could craft things its been the same....numerous duplicate prefix rolls in a row (be it a weapon or armor) but never a "good" one. Way back when, I recall crafting 88 or 89 L Arms before finally getting an SS Unyielding... and even then it popped as a crummy 2*. What an absolute waste.

Now the pool is even more watered down. Completely relate to the frustration and even I am finally starting to question my enjoyment of the hamster wheel. Without much to do at a certain point, not being able have what you are after due to nothing more than gated RNG mechanics just isn't fun. Stinks.

4
G-bone714•

I have been working on a set of SS with overeaters and one chameleon. I now have the chameleon and three overeaters limbs, just need to do the torso. It has cost me 230 modules so far. Once I’m done (being optimistic that I can do it) I will continue till I can get the pieces and have weight reduction as secondary effects. It’s cruel.

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golfguy_markOP•

I haven't really used overeater's but IIRC it reduces incoming damage. If you have say 4 pieces and one chameleon you get the 4x 6% = -24% (reduced) damage incoming. This is different from normal armor DR which is "resistance" vs reduction. If so I can see a real benefit here vs something like Vanguards. The catch is that you have to keep well fed to a minimum level to reap the benefits.

1
G-bone714•

I luckily don’t have an issue with eating (in the real world too) so it’s all good, even without to final piece, I’m getting pretty tanky. The big problem is getting the combination of over eaters with some sort of weight reduction effect.

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Darth-Vader64:Lone_wanderer: Lone Wanderer•

RNG is a b*ch, I feel for you, I've easily gone through 60 legendary modules in one sitting for one piece of SS armor and getting nothing.

What I found that is marginally helpful, is if I get two pieces of really crappy armor, say two nocturnals I server hop. I only build 3 to 5 armor pieces at once, I then examine them and figure out if I have a keeper. I know some people bang out 10, or even 15 pieces at once, but I'd rather to it small bunches just so that if I did get a keeper, wouldn't have wasted as much legendary modules.

I'm trying to upgrade two pieces of my SS armor simply because those pieces inflict damage to someone attacking me via melee. I know this is an exploit some griefers use to force PVP, so I'm anxious to drop those items, and as such I'm willing to take a single or double start armor piece just to keep me protected

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golfguy_markOP•

If it's not really random then you might be on to something as I usually bang out ten at a time to use the modules I buy from the Purveyor. Likely I'm wasting some that way.

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Cuznweed•

I follow u/Darth-Vader64 process, but instead of rolling two I roll five always and regardless if the first two really suck. If rng shows me it's not feeling up to it, I quit rolling (crafting) and log out... because f'server hopping.

If I see modifiers I want, I'll roll until I'm out of modules/cores or when I land the perfect roll. In fact, my junkie rolled a j/50c/25ap enclave plas a few days ago. All I need for it is the flamer barrel, so back to the rng grind I go.

The same toon had a natural drop with ap refresh about a week earlier. I stopped what I was doing and began crafting. The results were three ss armor pieces with ap refresh in ten rolls, which was all the modules I had. This doesn't work every time, but it works more often than any other tactic I've tried over 5600 hours (less my hours prior to legendary crafting/rolling with the leggo troll).

To emphasize tactics tried, at one point I saved all of my rolls regardless of what they were. Each time I went to roll/craft, I would move all the crap I saved from my stash to my toon just in case the game did look at what I had before deciding what I would get. It made no difference to the game, except that I played it less because shite became too frustrating to comprehend.

3
yocappy:Pioneer_Scout: Pioneer Scout•

RNG in this game loves runs, there has been a theory since the beginning that servers are "seeded" to favor certain Legendary prefixes for drops. So, on a particular server, you might only get Nocturnal, Hunter's, & Auto-Stim, for example (btw-servers ALWAYS seem to be "seeded" with crap prefixes in these theories); but if you hop, that server might be "seeded" with Unyielding, Vanguard's, & Weightless (or whatever).

I even read one player who charted their Legendary drops over time by server, & they came up with the idea that the prefixes were sorted into groups that always dropped together on ANY server "seeded" for them.

Really crazy idea if any of us think about the long game of drops, there is no way any generalized pattern emerges.

But, I do think that sometimes, the RNG is prone to repeat prefix or another effect or a item type, happens all the time.

Unfortunately, it cannot be used as a way to determine when you should craft or roll Legendary items. Today, I got 3 out 4 drops in a row with an Unyielding armor piece. So, I head straight to the armor bench hoping to roll my Unyielding BOS Recon set. Nope, I tried 3 chest pieces & then crafted 4 SS pieces & none of them were Unyielding. 8>(

Of course, I exit the bench & the first Leg I kill drops another * Unyielding piece I don't need. Oh well.

3
Biff_McBiff•

The numbers are not really random but are pseudo random. The function relies upon a seed number and will return the same sequence of numbers anytime the same seed number is used. Depending upon the technique used to set the seed number it is possible to get duplicate seed numbers and as a result repeated pseudo random numbers. I've often wondered if some of the repetitiveness people see in RNG isn't related to duplicate seed numbers. Usually this type of problem would not be obvious just looking at the source code and requires looking at the actual memory values so is easy to overlook.

3
KingSirFatty•

And then there are attributes that never appear, like Safecrackers.

I've been saying it from the beginning, there is no RNG in Fallout.

2
Logen_Nein•

Funny I get safecrackers all the time. Instant scrip or reroll.

2
KingSirFatty•

I'm not looking for it... but it never occurs. In the wild, I've come across it maybe 3 or 4 times.

But thanks for strengthening my point!

1
Rumblyguts1969•

Trying to roll better armor was the only thing left to keep.me going. Then they added legendary PA drops...ack. tried rolling pieces, and I dont know how many rolls equaled one quality piece, but it was enough to tell me it wasn't worth the time...it'd take me a couple months to find a piece with the time I spend gaming now. So it's time to travel with Brother Martin.

2
Cuznweed•

I do not care how many times players tell me that the rng is just rng, runs do not exist, etc. I know from experience that my chances of rolling (crafting) what I want, let's use ap refresh, increase if I get a natural drop with ap refresh.

I also know that my og/main toon went on several runs over weeks to months with nocturnal drops being the largest majority of natural drops in the first year or so of the game.

I also know that Todd watches all of us all the time, and he has a "Nope", no soup for you button!

Regardless of how rng is supposed to work, this is what it does.

2
drackiller1•

It's RNG and it's obviously rigged...

...on the other hand, I'm one of the few that doesn't need too many tries to get (at last) the prefixes I want, let me give a few examples.

Last double XP event I decided to craft a few Gauss shotguns to see If I could get Vampires ones. I crafted less than 5 per character and in that process, I got in all of them either an AA ad a Vampire or a TS plus a Vampire.

They are not perfect but to play the game as it is right now they are more than perfect.

Last week I was surprised that my second char wasn't using a full set of SS Unyielding, I had a combat armor left leg on the mix so, I crafted just 2 legs because on my second try I got one 3 stars Unyielding and stoped right there.

It was the same with Murmie since the first day, while most people kept saying that she only give them trash, from the first day she started selling I started getting my best weapons.

It's just RNG, unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be properly tuned.

My advice for people crafting or rerolling legendary stuff is to space your crafting, don't craft too fast or reroll too fast, change servers often when doing this kind of thing.

2
golfguy_markOP•

good advice, thanks

2