Source
r/spiritisland•
fifguy85

Element "Quick Facts"

Question

Hey, I've noticed in many strategy discussions that some of you all have amazing command of knowledge about the elements available on the powers. For example, there are many comments noting what pairing of elements are common, or what % chance you have of getting a certain kind of element. I was curious: Are there any resources out there that help to visualize element-distribution information? Or, what are folks' shortcut facts that help them keep track of element availability? Bonus if there are similar tricks or resources about Major Power thresholds.

My lack of knowledge was brought to light in my first play as Starlight where I only saw the cards in hand to work with and didn't really know what elements would be more or less common together on future drafts. I ended up with Earth/Animal on several though, so that helped with a many-minors strategy. :)

Posted Feb 7, 2022, 11:54 PM UTC

1213
aaroncstevens93:Shroud:•

Elements are pretty even for single, pairs, and triples of elements I believe.

6
Hawkwing942:Downpour::Finder::Vengance:•

Yeah, every element is on approximately 38% of cards, and if independence can be assumed, then you can calculate the probabilities from there.

2
KElderfall•

I always just assumed that all possible pairs of elements were equally common in the minor deck, but apparently that's not true. There are 11-13 copies of most pairs, but opposing elements (fire-water, plant-animal, etc) only have 10 copies each.

Triplets don't seem to be balanced much. I think all possible triplets exist, but some show up 4 times and some only once. Most are 2-3 times.

Odds of getting a specific element from a clean draw of the minor deck are around 85%. Odds of a given pair range around 35-45%, and odds of a given triplet range from 4-15%.

The variance is pretty small overall and I don't know in what situation you'd say "I should pick sun,moon,water instead of sun,moon,earth because my odds are 4 times as good of getting a perfect elements minor." It might be worth compiling something like that together for curiosity's sake but I haven't run across it when searching for info.

5
fifguy85OP:Thunderspeaker::Lure::Minds::Shroud:•

Yup, using that data from the thread u/Hawkwing942 posted, I was starting to look into that as well. Knowing that any given pair is in the deck 11-14 times (including Elemental Boon in that count) is a handy fact. Especially if you're weighing the value of a growth option on fishing for an element or pair.

Elemental thresholds are similarly well-balanced, but there are some trends that are interesting (maybe not worth changing your play over though). Moon and Animal tend to have higher-value thresholds with more requiring 3 or 4 elements (~8% more than the others). Water is interesting in that it has a ton of 2-element thresholds, and fewer 3-element thresholds comparatively, but is also tied for the most 4-element thresholds with Moon.

3
Tesla__Coil:Lightning::Fangs::Volcano::Wildfire:•

but opposing elements (fire-water, plant-animal, etc) only have 10 copies each.

Plant and animal are opposing elements? That's rough for Sharp Fangs.

1
fifguy85OP:Thunderspeaker::Lure::Minds::Shroud:•

Sure, but they only need one plant since they have one on their track, and they have two cards with both plant and animal in their unique powers. Rather than plant, I find I'm looking for fire with Fangs more often than not.

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Hawkwing942:Downpour::Finder::Vengance:•

I found this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/spiritisland/comments/jentzz/power\_card\_elements\_statistical\_analysis/

3
Hawkwing942:Downpour::Finder::Vengance:•

Looks like the elements are evenly distributed, which make the math easier when looking for a single element.

3
fifguy85OP:Thunderspeaker::Lure::Minds::Shroud:•

This was really helpful, thanks!

2
Thamthon:Fangs: :Downpour: :Serpent: :Rampant:•

Would anyone find it useful if I shared a CSV with a line per power card and its corresponding element? I can get the data from MemoryBot, if people are interested in doing and sharing some analysis

2
fifguy85OP:Thunderspeaker::Lure::Minds::Shroud:•

There's a link to such a sheet in the link u/Hawkwing942 posted above that I was looking at, but I'd love to hear any others' analysis and conclusions based on that!

2
Thamthon:Fangs: :Downpour: :Serpent: :Rampant:•

Ah you're right, I missed that!

1
wg_detective•

Here's a website I found in some thread awhile ago. I dont know who is responsible for it, but I greatly appreciate it.

https://sick.oberien.de/?query=

1