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r/CoronaVirusTX•
tech-tx

Dallas drops into GREEN risk level (old metric) on Wednesday, and into GREEN (new CDC metric) Friday

Based on the last few days update to https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/ Dallas County dropped into the Green risk level on Wednesday, March 2nd. The daily positives listed for that day was 25; the top of Green is 1 per 100K new cases, or 26.4 new cases. The next day the case count had dropped to 6, or roughly 1 per 400K new cases, still apparently on a declining slope. If there's data on the Dallas County site for Friday, I can't get my mouse on it even when expanding the graph out.

https://imgur.com/a/wdGesgT

Welcome to the New Normal! It's over for now. This is what Herd Immunity looks like. You can all go back to your lives again and forget this nightmare for 8-15 months. Monitoring is still essential, but further vaccination is pointless as Omicron got us here the hard way, not vaccination. We must have infected over 98% of Dallas County: every man, woman, child, dog, cat and pet hamster.

Note that the 7-day average graph on the Dallas County site has always been wonky. Currently it's showing 8.27 per 100K for Friday, March 5th. However, the Daily Average Count displayed in the upper left of the Home window of data says 115, divided by 26.4 (to get per 100K) gives 4.36. That averaged graph looks pretty, but it's readouts have always been wrong, if the other data there is correct.

The new CDC metric is interesting, but the numbers shown for those level differences looks janky. Case counts less than 200 per 100K for Green?? Truthfully? 200x higher than the old limit? In any event, the CDC update Friday morning 3/5/2022 is also GREEN for Dallas County (low risk).

Posted Mar 5, 2022, 11:15 PM UTC

7219
awesomeqasim•

You’re giving a lot of medical advice and opinions (forget COVID, vaccination didn’t get us here etc) that directly contradict most public health officials/knowledgeable medical scientists. Can you talk a little bit about your medical credentials/degree?

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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tech-txOP•

Houston doesn't have the case data displayed as nicely as Dallas does; the closest they have is this: https://covid-harriscounty.hub.arcgis.com/#new-cases-trend which is pretty annoying. To get real-time info for Houston, you can click on Harris County on this page:

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDCountyTrendsOverTime/COVIDTrends?:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Add the positives + probables for a specific day and divide by 47.1 to get the cases/100K. For today 3/5/2022 TX DSHS is showing 9.5/100K (405 + 43 / 47.1), which is in the YELLOW risk level and falling rapidly on the old metric, but still higher than other sites are showing. That CovidActNow site shows 7.1/100K for Harris County, which I feel is probably more likely. Looks like you'll hit green in a week or so at the rate cases are falling.

The new metric on the CDC site is showing YELLOW for Harris due to ongoing hospitalizations if I'm reading their description correctly. 9.5/100K is within the 200/100K case counts for the green level, but 11.28% of ICU beds in Houston are COVID patients, which must be what trips the level from green into yellow with the new CDC metric, as people in the general wards is only 4.46%. Once ICU occupancy drops below 10% you'll be GREEN with the new CDC metric.

If you have to pick one or two sites for your risk, the CDC site or the CovidActNow site are both easy to read. The CDC site is just 3 colors, but doesn't show the history or where you're trending to like the other does.

I'm not a doctor or scientist, merely a well-read layperson trying to keep 650 employees alive. ;-) I'd LIKE to be an effing know-it-all, though!

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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dtxs1r•

That second paragraph is satire, right?

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tech-txOP•

Sadly, not a bit. A bunch of people that weren't vaccinated and didn't have prior infection died in the Omicron wave to get us where we are today. It's too late to 'fix' that.

Recent studies and very old advice from the CDC both say that immunity from infection is both more durable and broader protection than that from vaccination. If you had measles, then the measles vaccine is not recommended. I'm fairly sure EVERYONE had Omicron, as fast as the numbers dropped in all of the metro areas of Texas. I've seen skydivers on shallower curves.

A further info nugget you haven't heard elsewhere: Omicron infection gives you mucosal immunity. The next time it comes around, the mucous membranes in your nose, throat and bronchial tubes immediately react, minimizing the viral load before you ever notice much more than a sniffle. NONE of the currently authorized humoral/IM vaccines can do that; they can only keep you out of the hospital. Mostly. Mucosal immunity with a respiratory virus is pretty much sterilizing immunity. That's what keeps the common cold from putting you in the hospital.

edit: BTW, I'm both vaxxed and boosted. Mama didn't raise no fools.

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Former-Drink209•

How is this true when you can catch omicron twice?

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tech-txOP•

Different scientists in Denmark and Israel came up with nearly the same number: your odds of catching Omicron twice (or a different Omicron variant after another Omicron variant) is about 0.04%. There's a bit of error margin on that because the number of reinfections was so small in both studies, but there it is. I trust the two papers I read, as both countries did a good job of minimizing errors. If you read anywhere else that reinfection is rampant, then check their sources. Abso-freaking-lutely don't trust any article reported by a newspaper, TV News source, and EVERYTHING on Twitter, Facebook, etc. as they're clueless about infectious disease, immunology, and human anatomy. I don't trust the CDC as they rarely quote the source data or study.

I was VERY surprised that the reinfection rate for both studies was only 0.04%, as the self-reported number of people in the US that are either immunocompromised or immunosuppressed is up to 2.7%. I'd expect THAT for the typical reinfection rate.

Now the chances of getting Omicron after having Wuhan, Alpha, Beta, Delta etc. was pretty good, about 56% chance you'd be positive with a PCR test or have symptomatic disease. Omicron was different enough that pre-existing antibodies didn't recognize it. Luckily it WAS effective the other way: once you had Omicron, you had 5-6 times better protection against Alpha and Delta. That's why they're gone.

Even with 'sterilizing immunity' you'll still 'catch' it, but your immune system will kill it off before it becomes a problem. I think I caught Omicron twice: first and last week of January. I took rapid tests on day 2 and 3 of symptoms both times (all neg) but I probably have mucosal immunity from when I got Alpha or Delta last year, and then I boosted first of December. Strong immunity reduces the viral load to the point where a rapid test might not detect it. I had sniffles and a 99F fever for 3 days both times in January.

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km0010•

interesting.

mind sharing links to the papers if you have them on hand?

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rwk81•

Not surprised the dolts in here are down voting you and really have nothing even close to a counterfactual.

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tech-txOP•

I'm not here for a popularity contest, merely to present some facts and reasonable opinions. I've been reading in-depth research on every field during this horror, and listening to people that seem to have a clue. The CDC frequently doesn't, except for rare papers like this: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

That says what many immunologists agree with: prior infection is better protection than vaccination, if you don't have a choice. That data also shows that vaccination after infection offers almost no advantage, so why is the CDC top brass still pushing vaccination when we've mostly all had (or will have) Omicron? If you're still uninfected then yes, by all means the vaccine is safer than the infection.

Lots of 'experts' out there are doing nothing more than scaremongering. OMG, THERE'S A NEW VARIANT IN DEER! Yeah, only *one* known transmission deer > human. The deer have antibodies, so they're not a reservoir animal. Not a big issue. There's SOMETHING in the sewer in New York, but I can't get any info on it. It sounds like Omicron: a variant that's been in the animal population for a year or more likely two, and has diverged a lot. Until it infects people, it's not a big concern.

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daphneprairie•

What about all those undocumented home tests?

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LordTreat•

You people are never satisfied are you

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daphneprairie•

They play a significant role in herd immunity. That’s satisfying.

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DMVSavant•

herd immunity :

if it's good enough for jane austen

it's good enough for you

​

​

​

( jane austen almost died of typhus )

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zsharp68•

meanwhile collin county’s bouncing up; pain

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PolyBend•

Uhh, then why does your own source still show us in orange?

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tech-txOP•

If you mean the Dallas County COVID-19 page, I have NO earthly idea why they're so fast to raise the alert level and so glacially slow to lower it. Both hospitalization and case counts are low enough for the green (low risk) level. Dr. Phil Huang should be dancing in the streets at this point.

I look at the data, not someone else's interpretation of it.

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PolyBend•

I feel like I remember it being that you have to be 2 weeks, or something like that, with that level of numbers. Pretty sure it was the same going up, as well.

Also super confused with DC data because they have been reporting over 200 a day for weeks now. Down from 800 only a month ago. So I have no idea how they are getting 114 daily average. Even Thursdays, the last reported, is 584... last weekends was about 900 (Saturday through Monday).

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pc_g33k•

You can all go back to your lives again and forget this nightmare for 8-15 months.

Are you implying that another surge may happen in 8-15 months? Why is that? Will it only be limited to the Dallas area?

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Quin1617•

This is what Herd Immunity looks like. You can all go back to your lives again and forget this nightmare for 8-15 months. Monitoring is still essential, but further vaccination is pointless as Omicron got us here the hard way, not vaccination.

I wouldn't say that, with COVID herd immunity is essentially impossible, vaccination is still important because protection fades with time. Really, we need a better/updated shot.

Personally I think this virus will be a 'forever pandemic', it'll always be around but with minimal societal impact.

Kind of like HIV, that virus has been pandemic for nearly 41 years but most people aren't directly affected by it. Hell, most probably don't even realize that it's a pandemic.

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