Does anyone happen to know the comparative complexity of Cascading Shadow Maps vs Ray traced shadows?

I've asked in a variety of channels over the years, and am fairly confident in my assumption, but just want to cover all the basis; does anyone know the comparative complexity of cascading shadow maps vs ray traced shadows? Specifically with regards to real time graphics?

See, I've held the position, for about a decade now, that a transition to ray tracing is/was inevitable in real time graphics since ray traced lighting has less cost per shadow-casting light in the scene, let alone the associated costs of anything beyond hard shadows. However, I've never seen anything actually confirm that ray tracing algorithms scaled better than raster algorithms for shadow casting lights.

Does anyone happen to know, or have relevant figures?