Source
r/LabourUK•
PyromianD

The Conservative party isn't going to die.

Lots of people seem to think that due to the Con's low poll numbers they will certainly be wiped out next election, and that they wont survive as a party.

But just remember what people were saying after the 2019 election about Labour: that it would take a decade to recover from this loss, at least two elections, etc...

The reality is that fixing the country won't be easy, and as an opposition party the Conservatives will get back their support. Might not happen in one election, but they will come back.

Posted Oct 23, 2022, 9:00 AM UTC

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sadomaruLiberal Democrat•

As much as I agree with you, the Labour party was at no point having voting intention polls predict literally zero seats, so that's not anywhere close to the same scenario

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Gameskiller01Socialist (-8.2) | Libertarian (-5.7) | Progressive (13.5)•

Anyone predicting they will win 0 seats is wrong. The seat predictors break down with swings that large; the last MRP we had with the tories on around 25% and labour on around 50% still had the tories on ~150 seats iirc.

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CannaewulnaewidnaeNew User•

Fine; Labour bottomed out at 23% under Corbyn (Labour's least electable leader in forty years)

Milliband took Labour to a low of 36%

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MMSTINGRAYThough cowards flinch and traitors sneer... (end the bans)•

And Corbyn got 202 seats in 2019 so doesn't that prove the point of the other person? That low polling doesn't mean a wipe out?

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BilboGubbinzSocialist, Communist, Labour member•

Those metrics can't be compared because you're ignoring turnout: abstention is an important metric and was arguably even more important in an election dominated by Brexit where Labour Brexiters largely abstained rather than vote Tory.

Really, the moment you're using vote share to compare elections is the moment you're giving up on your analysis being taken seriously.

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CannaewulnaewidnaeNew User•

the moment you're using vote share to compare elections ...

I'm comparing opinion poll ratings for Labour under two previous leaders with opinion poll ratings for the Tories under the current leader

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SleambeanAnti-capitalist•

Yes, and they didn't get under 200 seats either time, just like the MRP poll at 25% doesn't predict Tories having a complete wipeout, despite whatever the uniform swing projectors say. What's your point?

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Jacobtaitvirtus autem corruptibilis est, sicut quaerere per mods•

Similarly, as long time opposition, we aren’t in change of a ship to go down with so to speak. People might not find our offering attractive but would take a lot for an opposition party to generate the level of animosity and distrust we’ve seen in recent weeks.

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BriefcasedNon-partisan•

I really think that pundits haven’t understood how volatile public opinion is in this country and how rapidly peoples can switch from one party to another. I don’t think they appreciate how many ‘swing voters’ there are nowerdays.

I remember when Boris won the last election - all the pundits were saying that he has also won the next election too because the majority was too big to overturn in one election cycle. Now they are saying that the conservatives have defo lost the next election and likely the next several.

I remember thinking they were talking nonsense back in 2019 and they’re talking nonsense again. The conservatives had a large poll lead less than a year ago. They’re practically in the teens now. Labour have gone +20% since may last year. These are enormous changes.

We are most likely two years from a general election. Given the pace of politics practically anything could happen in that time. If the tories coalesce and unite around Rishi and he handles the incoming crises well - I can see them bouncing back. He is very well placed to distance himself from the train wreck that was Truss’s premiership by saying that he was essentially a Cassandra figure and that actually, the majority of Tory MPs realised he was right.

It’s possibly more likely that they continue infighting and the sheer number and magnitude of the countries problems do them in - but I think Starmer is right in saying that it be complacent would be a terrible mistake for labour.

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Fando1234New User•

I think you and OP both make very important points. There is a sense of complacency growing, in feeling that the next election is a done deal (our way).

Even just canvasing recently, in a not particularly affluent area, it's amazing how many people are still conservative, despite everything.

It's possible that they don't follow the news. Or don't care. Or more worrying, they still believe that Labour is more of a danger to their community than a completely shambolic Tory party.

It should humble anyone who supports labour to remember, as you wisely say, anything can happen in 2 years. And even if the election was tomorrow, my hunch is we'd win, but not in the absolute wipe out predicted.

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Fabulous_Medicine_52New User•

People who aren't taking it seriously: Labour.

Starmer has been saying to pretend they are only 2 points ahead and keep their eye on winning. He's very right in that.

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hobocactusNew User•

I really think that pundits haven’t understood how volatile public opinion is in this country and how rapidly peoples can switch from one party to another. I don’t think they appreciate how many ‘swing voters’ there are nowerdays.

I would love to see some polling exploring how many people are actually happy with the party they vote for and how many are doing it purely because they dislike the other options more in that moment.

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AbbaTheHorseLabour Member•

We're definitely less than two years away from the next GE - May 2024 (a year and a half away) is the most likely date, but we need to be seriously prepared for a May 2023 election.

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thisisnotariotex-member•

There's not going to be an election any time soon, so the party will likely recover in the polls. Unless Boris wins, and he gets absolutely ravaged by the privileges committee. Even then, the chances are that it goes the same way as the Trump investigation and we all get overexcited.

Anyway if the Tories do get wiped out in the next election, the big question is really around what lessons they choose to take from it. How the party thinks about and considers the loss will completely shape politics for the next few decades. It could honestly go either way; there's a chance that the 'sensible' wing of the party reasserts itself and pulls it back to the centre ground, which would make sense in terms of the economic situation, but there's also a solid chance that they double down on the hard right, culture war, little england bullshit too, because its easier to blame trans people or immigrants for problems than it is to blame themselves.

The latter should really worry us. Without a robust left to oppose it, and with a labour leader who clearly sees triangulation as the route to electoral success, we'll end up in a really bad place.

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SomeShiitakePosterLabour Supporter•

Why is it that unless a scandal happens immediately before an election the population all just gets selective amnesia and goes right back to voting for them?

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GingrpenguinNew User•

Fptp.

Vast majority of voters arnt actually voting for the party they want but to stop a party they don't.

Do you think I actually like the lib dems? No but a vote for either greens or Labour in the seats I live (lib/con swing) is a vote for the tories.

If lib dems become the second party they'll hoover up the anti Labour vote.

That has happened before. Just over 100 years ago the two big parties were the libs and tories

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SomeShiitakePosterLabour Supporter•

But it's the Tories who are screwing up everything, they are at a historic low in terms of popularity right now, meaning even their typical supporters have lost faith in them, but as people are saying with enough time between now and the next election I can easily seeing the average Tory voter just forgive them and keep voting like normal

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TruestRepairman27Labour Member•

tbf, what happens if they pick option 2 is that the Lib Dems will positin themselves to pick up all the Cameroon type tories and the broadly liberal rightwing types. It may not work out for the =m in the way that they hope

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DreamyTomatoNew User•

Under Corbyn, Labour still had a ‘sensible’ wing as you call it. However the Tory equivalent has long since gone. I honestly don’t think there are many One Nation or centrist MPs left in the Tory party. Boris is perhaps one of their most left-wing MPs …

I used to sit on a committee linked to special needs education, 10 years ago, with a guy who later went on to be a Tory MP. He was a quiet but intellectual guy, always had plenty of time for me and the other disabled people on the committee, and was clearly marked out to be a future leading Minister. Pretty quickly he was given a minor Ministerial role to prepare him for higher office.

About a year later, he announced he was standing down as MP because he had fundamental disagreements with the ‘direction of travel’ of the Tory Party. This was slightly before the Brexit vote and it was clear he was fed up with the insanity and bullshittery around the Tory Brexit discussion.

I don’t think he’s even a Tory member now. He’s one of many. It’s people like him that the Tories need to recover, and they’ve all been driven out.

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TruestRepairman27Labour Member•

If they genuinely get less than 20% then the Conservative party in its current form will essentially die. It would be fare worse than Labour in 2019 or the Tories in 1997.

There will always be a rightwing party and there will be opposition to whatever Labour does, but you could genuinely see a Tory split, or the lib dems positioning as the main opposition or some other weird scenario.

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APDLSNew User•

Labour did better in 2019 than the Tories did in 2005 and they got into government at the next election. Those statements were never based in real history.

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ayogeorge•

The seat numbers masked how precarious Labour's 2005 win was. Only 3 points. In England, the Tories got more votes but almost 100 fewer seats. There were a ton of Labour marginals, and a lot of low-hanging fruit for the Tories in 2010. And despite everything they still never got to a majority.

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APDLSNew User•

Oh I agree Labour were definitely not as strong in 2005 as the Tories were in 2019, I was just comparing 2019 Labour to the 2005 Tories. Of course you also have to consider that the Tories had an electoral pact with the Brexit Party otherwise the voteshare would not have looked all that different from 2005 in reverse.

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philpope1977New User•

if Corbyn had been able to fight the 2017 election on the 2005 boundaries and demographics then he would have been PM. And if Blair had fought the 2005 election on 2019 boundaries and demographics he would have lost it.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

The Conservatives are the most successful political party in the world. They’re not going to get killed off in a single election cycle.

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APDLSNew User•

“The Liberals are the most successful political party in the world. They’re not going to get killed off in a single election cycle.”

Where does this propaganda line about them being the most successful come from btw? It has no basis in reality. Even setting one party states aside and ignoring the Tories’ dreadful record when in government effectively since the war the most successful political party in the world is Sweden’s Social Democrats which have come first place in every election since 1914. There are others you can look at too like the Democratic Party. Also why are you repeating this line?

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Empty_Barnacle300New User•

I believe it’s because they’re supposedly the oldest contiguous political party that has regularly held power.

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APDLSNew User•

Which is itself debatable, as it requires considering them and the OG Tory party to be the same thing. Otherwise that would be the Democrats.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

Good job I didn’t say that then huh?

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Empty_Barnacle300New User•

Shhhh, we can’t let nuance ruin a good bit of propaganda. /s

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

Not much of an argument mate. The Liberals weren’t anywhere near as successful as the Conservatives.

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qwertilotNew User•

They didn't do badly historically, I think being the point :) Then they did indeed almost die.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

“Not doing badly, hostorically” and “completely shaped the entire country to the point that there is no real opposition to their ideology” are not equivalents.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

The country runs exclusively on their ideology with maybe 1 or 2 blips in the last century.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

We may be using different definitions of success.

They are successful because they are implementing their ideology and achieving their political aims (in the long term).

That doesn’t mean I think that they are doing what is best for the country.

I don’t see how populism enters into the conversation, it’s a meaningless boogeyman word.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

We may be using different definitions of success.

They are successful because they are implementing their ideology and achieving their political aims (in the long term).

That doesn’t mean I think that they are doing what is best for the country.

I don’t see how populism enters into the conversation, it’s a meaningless boogeyman word.

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dmort1996New User•

I think you both mean the same thing but are using different words for it. I think this gent means successful as in they won't fuck off, not successful as in good.

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rainatorLabour Member•

The Tory party first emerged in 1679, and in its current iteration has been a force since the 1780s. In it’s entire time it’s broadly had the same agenda - keeping the reigns of power with a small and particular group of people.

Without some major reform, the tories or a party very much like it (maybe they will rebrand), will always exist in this country.

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rekuledNew User•

Obviously nearly all of them wouldn't have been 100% Tory but that's true of basically every government. Don't know why this is relevant to them being successful.

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BackTheMotorUpCorbyn’s behind this•

New Tories New Problems

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rainatorLabour Member•

Same knobheads though

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qwertilotNew User•

That's a bit unfair. As noted, they've been running the country (more or less) for centuries now.

Has the country turned into a random hell hole in that time?

Not really by any measure. We've been reasonably well run, rich country. Yes a bunch of things that we (Labour voters) would prefer to change a bit, but still. They could have done vastly worse.

As seen from the utter chaos and carnage of the last few years! Everything from Brexit onwards has in many ways been quite astonishingly unConservative.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

WOW ITS ALMOST LIKE THEY ARE A SUCCESSFUL POLITICAL PARTY RUNNING THE COUNTRY ACCORDING TO THEIR IDEOLOGY.

LIKE THE ORIGINAL POINT MADE IN THIS COMMENT CHAIN.

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qwertilotNew User•

That last is mostly very recent - and a good example of why they might actually be in danger of going extinct.

They did used to actually be quite good at planing for crises and so on. Just recently (being generous!) they've been actively hopeless.

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LumpyCrumpet687Childish factional ideological partisan•

"The most successful political party in the world" is clearly a backward-looking measure. It says nothing about whether they will continue to be successful no matter what they do or how much people hate them.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

I’m not saying that because they have been successful they will continue to be successful forever.

I’m saying the scale and totality of their success makes it unlikely that a single election cycle will be the end of them.

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LumpyCrumpet687Childish factional ideological partisan•

I thought it would be unlikely that they'd deliberately do stupid shit like electing a complete dimbulb who'd crash the pound by trying to turn the UK into a quasi-Randian shithole, a political programme only desired by the people who co-authored Britannia Unchained and Kristian Niemitz, but here we are.

If a hypothetical party were to do that a single election cycle probably would finish them off.

Their success is and always has been conditional on them not being absolutely repellent to everyone.

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TexRichmanSensible Maoist•

We’ll see!

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braydee89New User•

This is why PR needs implementing. Labour get cocky when they win and forget that the system doesn’t benefit them for the majority of the time.

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saddles93Labour Member•

Also, if the Tory party does die, the Lib Dems will simply morph into the Tories within a decade as the rich find a new party to infiltrate to further their agenda. They will never go away.

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alj8Abolish the Home Office •

More likely that the tories are replaced with another nationalist right wing party (along the lines of Le Pen in France). Might be even worse.

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saddles93Labour Member•

Under FPTP very difficult to get a new party to get traction. Easier to just take over the Lib Dems. They'll move right anyway to hoover up Tories who can't vote Tory, so it wouldn't be too tricky.

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alj8Abolish the Home Office •

Perhaps yes, but FPTP also means the Tories won't collapse entirely.

Honestly this future is a worrying thing as the Lib Dems are likely to remain socially liberal, which would open up a lot of space on the right socially for Labour to move into

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markhewitt1978Labour Voter•

With PR they could be reduced to a minority interest.

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saddles93Labour Member•

I am desperate for PR but it's important not to overstate its ability to lock out the right, just look at what's happened in Italy this month

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LumpyCrumpet687Childish factional ideological partisan•

PR is not a silver bullet that magically makes right-wing politics go away and I wish people would stop trying to sell it as that.

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zbailey2005New User•

What rubbish

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AyearinbooksNew User•

They won't be as low as polls suggest. The bigger question is whether tories' warring factions can unify (or one can essentially win). If Boris gets in I could see then tearing themselves apart. Otherwise they'll take a hit and recover over time.

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smig_New User•

This just underestimates quite how bad the Tories are currently polling. 2019 was a big defeat for Labour, but we still got 32% of the vote, it was never going to wipe out the party. Also, out of power for a decade is really just losing one more election if no snap elections are called.

The Tories are polling in the teens, since 1918 they have never fallen below 30% voter share and have never been the third biggest party. If an election were held soon, there would be a very real chance that the Lib Dems or SNP would be the official oppostion, that would be devastating for the Tories and would no doubt cause the split in the party they've been threatening to have for around a decade now.

Personally I think they will recover and won't quite be wiped out, but if they did lose their minds and call an election soon, it would be the end for them.

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Dark_AnsemNever Tory, pro PR and EU•

This just underestimates quite how bad the Tories are currently polling. 2019 was a big defeat for Labour, but we still got 32% of the vote

Which is precisely why FPTP needs to go

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dusknoir90Politically Homeless•

I feel so pessimistic about politics that to be honest I am expecting Boris to come back and then command a 100 seat majority at next election.

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CorbynavirusThe Mainstream•

A party that has dominated the UK's politics for literally centuries cannot die so quickly or so easily.

Even if the Conservatives really do fall below 50 seats, as many opinion polls predict, they will still have a formidable network of politicians and backers across the media, business etc. that can help them recover.

More importantly there will be tens of millions of voters who will be very reluctant to permanently switch loyalties to another existing party.

However what such a scenario would create is a gap that can potentially be filled by another new(Reform) or existing(Lib Dem) party which would then greatly impede Tory attempts at recovering their lost ground.

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silver_helmLabour Voter•

No, the Conservative party will never die, the people who actually benefit from it have far more political/economic/social capital than pretty much anyone else and will always wield this to achieve their aims, in a way much greater than you or I ever could and as such some people will always be convinced to vote against their own interests.

One trend that I think is going to significantly weaken them in the future however is house prices/availability. The Conservatives have almost always positioned themselves as the party of the home owner, and this has been very valuable for them electorally, however, with the likelihood that most young people will never be able to own a house or have a mortgage, in part due to the conservatives own policies, this group will dwindle significantly as time goes on and a large part of the Conservatives political base will too. (Here’s hoping)

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mightycalderNew User•

Forget the Tories they have their own problems, come home to Scotland and take on the Nationalists. When you see past all the tartan bluster, the SNP track record in Scotland has been piss poor on every level and a better organised opposition should take them apart. Ill put the kettle on.

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Tombo_1912_New User•

People are saying it based on current polling which would give them a far worse result than Labour in 2019. Of course, an actual GE might would likely have a different result but that's the context.

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cincuentaanosNew User•

and as an opposition party the Conservatives will get back their support.

That's assuming they will be the opposition after the next election. You can't even be certain of that yet. Fight and campaign like if the outcome is still doubtful and your lives depend on it.

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hisnameisbearNew User•

Literally dying is unlikely, but at their heart there's no resolution between their internal coalition of brexity types vs remainers

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secretchuWOWa1New User•

I think it will take longer for the conservatives to come back compared to what labour had to deal with however I do agree with your point about the opposition. Most of the public are not party loyal and the government are the ones who make mistakes that have direct impacts on the country and as such the opposition always gain favour whoever they are whatever party they are, it’s just how we work, we get angry at the government so their opponents always gain some amount of favour

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qwertilotNew User•

Yes, but look, they've currently got a majority of 80 but still can't seem to provide any form of even remotely functional (never mind capable!) Government.

They're making the country look like a total joke.

That's the sort of behaviour that can definitely get a political party a very serious hammering. It also will, unless resolved, quite possibly destroy them as a party.

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Maxearl548Brownite•

UK has grown into a political mindset of voting Parties out, rather than voting Parties in. 17 years Tory, John Major scandals -> 13 years Lab, Global crash -> 14 years Tory, Cost-of-living crisis -> Lab again.

Granted that Lab do moderately well for a few terms the electorate will only return to Conservative favour once another economic crisis wipes out Lab support. This next decade could well and truly be Labours to mould.

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