InterestRateMonitor

https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/s/UwOrseyWI4

8 months ago around April/May, I was mocked for saying it's the last chance to get out of housing if you're investing. Instead of losing $100k from the peak price, you'll now lose $300-400k. I'm still expecting another drop of 20% from today's price. That would bring the median price of a detached home in the GTA to a flat $1,000,000.

An unpopular opinion: a recession is still on course for June 2024. Let's revisit this in June, shall we?

Another unpopular opinion: Canadian banks are shitty. I will short TD when it reaches high 60s on the NYSE (expecting mid 30s by year end 2024 or early 2025).

What do you think the BoC will do tomorrow at 10a.m.?

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https://betterdwelling.com/a-canadian-immigration-slowdown-residency-applications-fall-sharply/

Canada Has Seen A Sharp Drop In Permanent Resident Applications Canada is receiving significantly less applications to become a permanent resident this year. The GoC reported just 10.6k applications in February, down 37% from January. Compared to last year, this February saw 54% fewer applications—a sharp decline.

The year kicked off with a similar-sized drop. Only 17k applications were received in January, about half (-49%) of the volume seen last year. That cuts the year to date volume to 27.6k applications, down 51% or 29.2k fewer applications.

Let's say parents have a bigger home than their adult child and the parents want to downsize to the adult child's home. Likewise, the adult child wants to upgrade to their parents' home. This will avoid RE fees. Will there be land transfer tax if they do this transaction?

I'm quite certain that Canadian home buyers today are akin to US home buyers in 2007. I predict there will be a Canadian recession in summer of 2024 akin to US in 2008. The big short will be in Canadian banks in 2024. We Canadians are so sure of our financial system until sh*t hits the fan. I was fine with our banking until I saw the percentage of mortgages with amortization of more than 30 years. Crazy. The thing for 2008 GFC is that everyone saw it coming in 2007 and just hoped nothing wouldn't happen. The same is happening today. Maybe I'm just old (40s) and scared.

I can post a bunch of charts but they will not convince anyone until later on when everyone says it's so obvious. That's h

In the last housing cycle, the US Feds paused their interest rate hikes in August 2006 (Q3 2006). The median sales price of US houses immediately went up in Q4 2006 and in Q1 2007. Then, seemingly out of no where (it's actually weakness in the economy), the median sales price dropped in Q2 2007 and doesn't stop dropping until it bottomed in Q1 2009. From Q1 2007 to Q1 2009, the median sales price dropped 19.1%.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

At the heart of Sweden’s woes is a dysfunctional housing market, which has not only cemented social divides, but exacerbated them. The country’s property boom — which saw prices increase by almost 250% in the past 20 years — was fueled by razor-thin borrowing costs and a shortage of rental properties. This lack of housing squeezed poorer families into overcrowded accommodation. And pushed others into buying — the total value of mortgages increased 459% in the two decades up to 2022. Before the latest crisis, household debt, including mortgages and consumer debt, had soared to more than 200% of disposable income, according to the OECD’s latest data from 2021. That is double the level in Germ

Just a follow up poll for my previous poll https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/11s4kqa/how_much_debt_do_we_gtaers_have/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

If you have $0 debt, do you own a house? Curious minds want to know.

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I understand we are at different stages in our life. Some are young grads, some are more matured in their careers, and some are possibly retired. Some want interest rates to go up and some want interest rates to go down. Understandably. So, to better understand ourselves, I'd like to know how much debt (or none) we have. Since it's a reddit poll, our answers are anonymous.

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What's my cap rate? 5% from Tangerine. Caveat: promotional deal lasts only 5 months, and only up to $1M.

Why not the stock market? In this environment, I think T-bills, govt bonds holding to maturity pays better.

Will I buy RE later? Hell ya, but not now. I think RE will keep going down because affordability now is much worse than at Feb 2022 peak.

When will I buy RE? After we go through a recession and/or yoy sales numbers begin to pick up.

Can I be wrong? Absolutely! I'm betting I'm not wrong :)

Do I own a property? Yes. My advice to FTHB is to definitely buy a principal home (semi or FTH) and rent out a basement or something to offset mortgage bills.

https://preview.redd.it

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The bond market is reacting to the US PCE. That's the cost of goods for businesses. It's higher than expected. After a hot CPI (the cost to us consumers), I don't think this can work without setting interest rates higher than inflation. We will drag this on for years and making things worse for everyone. If we raise interest rates by 200 bps, contrary to what many believe, the stock market will rally. Housing will go down a little bit more, to 2020 levels, at most to 2019 levels, but inflation will be killed and everyone can get on with their lives.