John says that without Harold, he would've killed himself. It's open to interpretation that he meant that he would've drank himself to death, but I think he meant that he planned to end it that night in the subway.
What if Harold received John's number the night of "Pilot"? He & John were in the city for months following Jessica's death, and Harold even says it himself that he's been keeping tabs on John for a while, so its unlikely that Carter was the only time John could be tracked down. We also know that The Machine both detects suicides AND can give more than one Number per day.
Harold kept his distance to allow John to grieve, until his number appearing pushed Harold to finally make h
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