Hey everyone,
I'm playing a simple betting game based on a bit flip with fixed, known probabilities. I understand that with fixed probabilities and a negative expected value per bet, you'd expect to lose money in the long run.
However, I've been experimenting with a strategy based on my intuition about the next outcome, and varying my bet size accordingly. For example, I might bet more (say, 2 units) when I have a strong feeling about the outcome, and less (say, 1 unit) when I'm less sure, especially after a win.
Here's a simplified example of how my strategy might play out starting with 10 coins:
- Start with 10 coins.
- Intuition says the bit will be 1, bet 2 coins (8 left). If correct,
210
