How are you viewing the prospect of retirement in the age of AI?
I am still planning on the prospect of working and saving/investing for retirement as if nothing will be different, but I know realistically within the decade many of us could very likely not have the ability to work and be compensated in the way we are currently, let alone 10-15 years from now. While something approximating UBI seems inevitable, I can't realistically see that as a guarantee, nor can I estimate the quality of life that would afford.
Have you guys changed or thought of changing your plans based on the developments of the last 12 months and glimpsing into the future?
I don't think this requires a serious tag, but I would appreciate trying to add some some value/insight.
Posted Mar 26, 2023, 3:37 PM UTC
101117
I have a bad feeling we’re going to go through a brutal phase where once AI makes most jobs redundant that it’s completely obvious we have to implement some form of UBI, but there will be a malignant segment of the population dead set on the principle of “earning” a living even when that is no longer viable across the board. After ten years or so of severe economic depression they start to get the picture and relent to some modest changes, but even then it’s with the understanding that it’s temporary until we can “get back to the way things were” which is never going to happen.
Sounds like the "return to office" (RTO) folks at workplaces that have successfully been WFH for the past three years.
Exactly. WFH vs return to work continues to be a battle for a lot of organizations.
And a golden opportunity for WFH-ready companies to poach talent from R2W-demanders.
Yeah.
The people that are going to lose their jobs - white collar workers - are not going to just sit around being unemployed. They will shift in to other work, probably less well payed than they’d like. The people previously in those jobs will then suddenly have more competition and will be forced to take jobs ‘below’ where they were previously…and so it goes on. Essentially, people will be forced to go down a rung on the ladder and the people right at the bottom will be pushed off.
I think what we’re likely to see at first - rather than a sudden glut of unemployed white collar workers - is wage stagnation and more unemployment ‘at the bottom’. There will be a lot of people taking on jobs that are way lower paid than they’d had previously, or been expecting. And there will be a palpable feeling that it’s getting more and more difficult to get work as there is increasing competition. We’re going to see a lot of general dissatisfaction with work.
The need for UBI will likely become apparent only gradually. This is all depends on a slow take off mind.
This hinges on the myth that manual labor wont be impacted by this. It will be.
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Bro the background of the photo doesnt matter at all its a demo? and hes been caught multiple times faking demos. Musk is a joke.
Also the wages will be horrible because so many people will compete for the same jobs
FTFY.
Although payed exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. The deck is yet to be payed.
Payed out when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. The rope is payed out! You can pull now.
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
Beep, boop, I'm a bot
I payed my bills yesterday
FTFY.
Although payed exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. The deck is yet to be payed.
Payed out when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. The rope is payed out! You can pull now.
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
Beep, boop, I'm a bot
yes, and I think beyond any economic or puritan work ethic, a big problem will be the psychological effect. a lot of people, quite rightly have good friends at work and these bonds will likely be shattered or at least significantly diminished. I don't think people recognize how important these people are to us.
there will also be an effect on the family unit. Most people are not used to being around their significant other 24 x 7. We aren't evolved for it.
One job that seems likely to be hugely important is Humans helping Humans make the transition with empathy and understanding, and also understand enough about the future to bridge the gap
Do you not have any hobbies at all? What's to stop people from just doing different hobbies in lieu of work?
People can take up archery, painting, cooking, reading etc. Everything a job has to offer as a social cohesion can be replaced with a hobby, lots of people already do that. I don't know how you missed that completely.
why are you assuming I am talking about myself?
I'm going to be fine. I'm used to my own company. There are many who aren't.
My comment simply called for empathy and understanding, and it is exactly this kind of rhetoric that you are showing here that is the problem.
Zero compassion or empathy.
Just play video games. ffs.
Okay, Mr.Big Shot. You got it all figured out, it's only the losers that will wander aimlessly.
People have interests outside of work, those will fill in the role of work and new ones will be created. No functioning person wants to stand inside staring at a wall, they want to do stuff. They will find stuff to do.
To reiterate once again, both points you brought up can be fixed by just spending time on your hobbies instead of work. New friends will be made just in the same was as work. It can come from a chess club, gym, painting class.
You're just rambling.
For how long? How long till you do the thing to the best of your abilities until that thing becomes none. How many new ways can you imagine to entertain yourself? Can you imagine for one moment a world in which you were able to tale certain people you didn't like and make them live out unspeakable tortures? Because I can. So what if we become subject to so cosmic future? What if we already are? Created just to prop up their status? Little achievements they have taken up along the way. Buried under the separate failed achievements that crowned another's life.
Maybe i’m missing something, but I’m having a hard time figuring out what the relationship between these two sentences is.
lmao get a better significant other... or maybe BE a better significant other?
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The same wife with terminal cancer who divorced you or a different one?
We aren’t evolved to being around our family 24x7? Have you seen monkeys? They hang out in trees with their family 24x7. Humans are 100% evolved to be in close social units.
Just because you’ve been orientated into believing that your life purpose is to be a cog in the wheels of capitalism doesn’t mean evolution is a part of this. The world will need a bit of deprogramming to shake the conditioning, but will be a lot like deprogramming a person who got stuck up in a cult. It will take weeks or months not years or decades.
I'm pretty sure throughout history couples did not spend all day together 24 x 7
Not now, not ever. Barring exceptions as always.
If you want to gaslight me otherwise go ahead
This is nothing to do with me, it is simply how it is, and has been for a very long time.
Now, are there people who can do that, sure, but it isn't the norm.
I fully agree that Humans are 100% social animals. My initial post was with respect to the loss of the extended family bonds that everyone has outside of the home.
Things are going to change and that will cause a shock wave.
Losing ones work buddies, whether you are male or female is not pleasant. It will be very upsetting.
I really do not understand why this is being diminished. I'm calling it as an issue that needs to be looked in to, and people are saying I am the problem here.
That is bizarre behaviour.
What does anyone get by not taking the possibility into account. Or is it just being contrarian and saying "I'm alright jack"
Maybe I missed your point, in which case I apologize. People need to look out for each other, full stop, and saying it is a non issue isn't going to help anyone.
What can I say
Look, you seem to be very conditioned by capitalism to the point you aren’t understanding that it’s not the norm, and never has been. The 40 hour workweek is a very recent invention. I don’t disagree that people like you will have a bit of a transition, but it’s NOT evolutionary, it’s psychological conditioning that you’ve been exposed to since birth.
The 40+ hour workweek is a concept that has seemed normal for the last 700 years or so, but that’s a blink in the eye of human history. I think you should read this: https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/for-95-percent-of-human-history-people-worked-15-hours-a-week-could-we-do-it-again.html
Also, don’t pretty much all seniors spend time together 24x7?? Why does it matter if it happens 20 or 30 years earlier? You act like nobody does it now, but seniors today do exactly what you say is impossible, and I’m pretty sure they have a lower divorce rate than couples working 80 hour workweeks.
Down voting "people should look out for each other"
Really?
we just did that with the pandemic though
Yes, and a lot of divorces and breakups happened; people were miserable.
But that isn't what I am talking about. I was mostly talking about losing the sense of purpose and camaraderie that a significant number of people obtain from their work life.
This isn't a case of waving a magic wand and everything will be hunky dory.
I have no idea how anyone can beat on my comment, it simply suggests that during the transition, people will be required to help others. It isn't clear to me why this is such a hot topic.
We didn’t crawl out of the oceans endless millions of years ago to work most of our life so a tiny, privileged few can shit in gold toilets on 500 ft yachts.
I do not accept that the way we live now on earth is the only way a civilization can survive, in the vastness of this universe I refuse to believe we are the ones that got it right.
Don't forget there is still always the possibility of asteroids, and solar winds that can disrupt pur grids before any tech can prevent it
If something like that were to happen we’d still be pretty screwed with our current socioeconomic structure. We rely on power to move and do - any collapse of our current grid would be massively disruptive, regardless of if AI removes the need for individuals to work. If something like a solar storm knocked out AI, we’d still be missing most of what we needed to go back to “the way things were”, unless “the way things were” refers to pre-industrial life.
Don't forget there is still always the possibility a black rhinosaurus could be swept up in a tornado and fall through your roof
Jokes on you, I have 5ft thick reinforced steel shingles
Fully prepared for the Rhinoceropocalypse.
Your example is orders of magnitude less likely than the carrington event or the recent one which was 100x more powerful but luckily pointed away from earth
NASA is working extensively on tracking stuff that comes close to earth and nudging it off course if it wants to come TOO close.
"Here's what planet earth would look like if asteroid ABC123 hit it!" -meanwhile asteroid ABC123's orbit doesn't come anywhere near earth's orbit. TV people love doing this.
why can they not nudge it on an impact course with Russia or China? They will not be able to retaliate because it was just a natural occurence!
Republicans. You can say them by name. It will be the republicans. Vote against them.
I have a bad feeling once AI replaces a large swath of people in the workplace. Individuals at the top may feel that those who do not provide anything to society may as well be dead and purposely make it harder for those that have been impacted to survive.
Just imagine trying to get any help at all through a bureaucracy entirely run by AI chatbots designed to waste your time.
I also suspect about ten years, or two US election cycles.
I think the system will change when I has to. That could be a lot quicker than 10 years if it’s something so important that life depends on it, like WW2 for example. I think this is on the same scale as a war or even higher, so I can see society mobilizing and throwing out the status quo to solve the problems any way it can.
I'm more worried about people jumping the gun - politicians saying "the time is now" when it's still not yet and then the voting majority backs them. Governments spend themselves into unmanageable debt, service sector becomes disabled, prices spiral out of control for the lunch burger an auto worker (or whatever else) needs then the auto (or whatever else) prices spike up as a result. Massive debt and slower production could hamper society's ability to move to its next level.
If a moment of need arises then people will see it. If the boomers are still here when the next industrial revolution happens then maybe we'll finally have the technology to make them realize it's not the mid 20th century anymore.
Until the rich and powerful develop an AI that’s much more superior to suppress everyone else