Why will/why won't New Zealand win the 2015 RWC?
Previous weeks:
Week 7: New Zealand
Pretty simple: 2-3 reasons why they will win the RWC and 2-3 reasons why they won't.
Posted Jul 22, 2015, 12:26 AM UTC
70198
Why they will:
- They are the All Blacks
Why they won't:
- France in Cardiff
82
France in Cardiff
I still wake up in a cold sweat sometimes...
61
Well shit.
2
Don't get me started mate. I haven't slept properly in days.
2
Meh happened 8 years ago. Different team, different coach and no stupid fucking rotation policy.
3†
But what happened in 1999, 8 years before that game? The pattern seems that the French are due for an upset over the All Blacks
29
Barnes is still around
13
What about Joubert ?
0
Yeah the Cardiff grim replay situation is an interesting one. Puckering a little bit just thinking about it.
I guess the squad have had two world cup games against the French since then, albeit at home. Closing out the 11 final was no small feat.
There would have to be a lot of things go wrong, again, for things to go full 07. We won a world cup without Carter, we know how Barnes refs, we know about panic, there is less pressure than '11 and' 07.
3
It has been forseen
1
I think everyone knows how Barnes referees, which is appallingly bad.
1
No. He's pedantic and tends to want to control the game rather than guide it.
2
Yup he wants to control who wins it, especially if it will advantage England....
0
Why they won't
Barnes is still a referee
1
Why they will : Joubert too !
0
Joubert was crap in the WC Final, missed blatant offside play by French player who never once retreated for 3 seperate rucks, interfering with AllBlack backline, so that they couldn't get to the ruck, which lead to turnoverball and France's try.
But yeh keep believing the bullshit that France were robbed and were the better team on the day...or that the ABs were assisted by the ref...
4
Will:
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their starting XV are the best XV
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their bench are better than most other team's starting XV
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they know they can beat every one of their opposition
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McCaw and Carters' last act
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they are consistently the best traveling team and have repeatedly won in streaks in the NH in the last decade
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can withstand injuries better than anyone due to their depth
--
Won't:
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hold on to key players who are too old (see: 1991)
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they'll become too conservative (see: 2007)
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the French (see: 1999 and 2007)
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England have one of those days at Twickenham (see: 2012)
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bad luck including key injuries (see: 1995, 2007, 2011)
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the lineout driving maul becomes unstoppable due to increased attacking focus and ref interpretation
63
The French, in Cardiff as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if they give the game for Barnesy to ref just to mentally fuck with us haha.
13
That would suck.
5
More like ref 2007
8
That's included in bad luck
5
Swings and roundabouts. See: 2011.
As someone said, included in luck.
-2†
Barnes didn't ref our WC match in 2011
1
I didn't say he did.
1
the French (see: 1999 and 2007)
You monster.
8
the French (see: 1999 and 2007)
And almost 2011...
If anything in 2011 they were arguably more deserving than the other two years haha
5
Why? THey were crap in the competition and both sides played a poor final.
1
ze damm french
1
Additional (tongue in cheek!)
Will:
- Sopoaga on fire
- Sonny Bill
- The Haka
Wont:
- Australia having a great day?!
- Not in NZ
- "four more years"
1
bad luck including key injuries (see: 1995, 2007, 2011)
Who were the key injuries in 1995?
1
That was bad luck due to food poisoning/illness. Key injuries are only one form of bad luck.
1
Top will: the best last quarter rugby in the world. No matter how far behind they are (and it's almost never very far), NZ can and mostly likely will take the game back in the last quarter.
Top won't: A tendency to under perform in World Cups.
1
Will: Depth of Squad.
Wont: Im sure they'll find an excuse. Food poisoning or bad refereeing if in doubt.
43
Suzie is more than myth my friend. Some say she's come out of retirement after finally running out of funds from her last payday in '95. Word is, she's made her way to the UK and is dusting off her oven mitts for one final masterpiece of culinary contagion.
37
That bitch!
4
Food poisoning or bad refereeing if in doubt.
Shots fired!
19
or bad refereeing if in doubt.
Because no one else does this.
I hope you haven't read the match threads for other nations on here or any other rugby forum.
1†
Definitely but there is a difference between complaining about a referee's decisions (which i do every time my team loses a game) and claiming those decisions were what decided the game.
19
and claiming those decisions were what decided the game.
You mean like how a lot of the rugby world seem to think France deserved to win in 2011?
18
I agree France deserved to win!
7
People complain about those decisiko becuase they potentially had an impact on the outcome of the game.
3†
Will:
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Favourites going in.
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Have players Toulon can only dream about.
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Play an amazing style of rugby which means they are dangerous from anywhere.
Won't:
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Don't have a great record of world cups away from home. Especially going in as favourites.
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I think Hansen is a good coach, but not a great one. With the pool of talent they have, I'd expect them to be demolishing everyone. Any other coach could be getting the same results with that team.
29
I think Hansen is a good coach, but not a great one. With the pool of talent they have, I'd expect them to be demolishing everyone. Any other coach could be getting the same results with that team.
I think you've got to look beyond the results at what Hansens trying to achieve. He isn't just looking to win now, he's putting New Zealand in a position where they can continue to dominate into the future. He has bought in a lot of new players and has managed to incorperate and develop them smoothly.
For every top player thats ageing, Hansen has nominated an heir apparent who has been rotating in to gain experience. If he just played his strongest side every game instead, i'm sure they would dominate more.
26
Good point re: Future: You can see this in the squad he's taking to SA this weekend: Few new faces that he'll use as subs and get their eye in.
3
This is what makes the all black's amazing, constant blooding of talent, some make it, and some leave to get called up and slot in seemlessly (relative to other teams) to win a rwc.
3
Absolutely, and injury to some of the bigger names helps (blooding).
But when their A team is playing you still expect more from them. They win, but every time I think what could have happened if they were firing on all cylinders.
2
I completely disagree with you on Hansen. It seems the only way for people to acknowledge him as a great coach is if his team beats every other team by 30 - 50 points in every game. No coach in any sport has achieved that kind of record (over a sustained period of time) ever.
His record is:
Played 44
Won 40
Drawn 2
Lost 2
That's amazing even for an All Blacks coach. BTW, that doesn't include the stats for when he was the All Blacks assistant coach.
24
Yeah I don't know how someone could call Hansen a bad coach. His record speaks for itself.
11
Certainly fired on all cylinders last year at Eden Park.
6
They never lose at Eden Park though.
3
Yeah this is what he does. Did the same when he was in Wales and was important for our turn around.
2
Hansen has to get credit for being part of the coaching team that created this team.
NZ nearly always have the best players and depth but they are not usually as dominant as they have been over the last decade.
5
[deleted]
1
I personally cannot see past the All Blacks this year, but I've said that just about every single World Cup and they've only won it twice and the last one was a close run thing so who knows.
Will
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Simply looking at the team sheet: For almost every position you could argue that x was the best player in the world.
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NZ tend to finish matches, especially so of late: Even when behind or not at their best they win games. See Ireland 2013, Ireland 2014, England's tests in NZ for this.
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When they're playing the fast ball, it's very difficult to keep an organised defence.
Wont
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Pressure of being the big favourites.
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Is there some weakness in the set piece? Argentina scored two very easy tries from the rolling maul last week. Argentina are good at it, but there are teams even better at it (England?) that might look to use this. England's tour of NZ saw the ABs collapsing a lot of mauls. Unfortunately for other teams, set pieces can be important but they're not going to win you a game on their own.
EDIT: Formatting & incorrect fact.
28
Nail on the head with set piece. Its lost its emphasis of late here with how open we like to play the game now. Leaner faster forwards with high ball skills that are tuned for decision making on attack tend to underperform against your traditional powerhouse packs too. I think it will improve vastly for us come RWC.
15
We didn't play Ireland last year.
3
The issue with the Argentinian mauls is that they were illegal, in every instance. Take a look at how they set up the maul, by placing players in front of the ball carrier (ie obstruction).
Then the Allblacks got penalised for going thru the middle of the mall to get the ball carrier, and again for "collapsing the maul". When the only tactics to stop a rolling maul are deemed illegal, then the maul itself is illegal.
2
Yeah there's some issues with how the maul is officiated these days. As a defending team who are against a team practiced at the maul you have 4 options:
- Collapse the maul. Concede penalty, not too bad an option given that you're near the sidelines anyway. Downside is that they'll probably kick for touch and repeat and you're now on yellow card territory eventually.
- Try and go through the middle for the ball carrier. You'll concede a penalty, see point 1.
- Throw every man woman and child at it and leave gaps across the field. Hope the referee tells them to use it when it makes no progress.
- Try not contesting the maul. I've seen this work a couple of times, but it seems a risky strategy.
It seems incredible that of those options, number 4, the one where you basically don't try and play rugby and play for the ball, might be the best option.
3
Yeah, that does seem to be the best option, though I have seen the Allblacks penalised last year for doing that. So damned if u do, damned if u don't
3
Haven't we won it twice? I'm sure we have.
1
Yea, 1987 and 2011, both at home as well
7
Oops, edited - thanks.
1
I thought you made that mistake on purpose! :-(
3
Whoops. Sorry! I'll edit, thanks.
2
Why the All Blacks will:
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This isn't the same ABs team that crumbles under pressure a la 2007. They're fitter than the rest, able to cope with pressure, and continually are able to launch comebacks against all odds in the final 20 minutes.
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Very few teams have beaten the ABs, less so in World Cups, and most of them cannibalise themselves before meeting the All Blacks.
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Player depth means that even an injury prone side has a good shot at winning the entire thing.
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Number one side in the world, defending champions and a wealth of international experience and winning on the big stage.
Why they won't:
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Defending titles is hard, every team will be gunning to beat them even more this time and the ABs have shown weaknesses in their games so far.
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This side hasn't looked unbeatable since 2013 and SA, England and France are all capable of pulling off upsets.
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The rolling maul will be a critical thing to worry about against good forward packs. Particularly when All Black discipline always allows for an attacking half penalty to turn into a defensive lineout.
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We're not at home and our record away from home, while also extremely good, is not nearly the same as our home record.
23
totally agree about 2013 - they just had some fucking aura about them that they lacked in 2014.
I felt a bit of it watching them against the Pumas, hope it can last!
5
2013 they seemed hungry after winning the World Cup in 2011 and then losing a perfect season with a disappointing performance against England. It seemed like they didn't care about being tired, overworked or even getting injuries because they wanted to avenge 2012 and prove that they could be the best ever. 2013 they were exciting and innovative, 2014 they just seemed tired to me.
In 2014 we nearly lost to Australia because they were playing exciting rugby and finding new ways to break the advantage line, we were playing same old tried and true methods that were easily shut down. After three straight years of playing rugby and the sheer speed of the style they play I don't blame them for being exhausted.
The Samoa game had me very worried, the Pumas made me happy because I didn't think the Pumas even played bad it's just that the All Blacks seemed to be back with a passion. The rolling maul needs to be worked on defensively, but otherwise I'm optimistic.
9
Wayne Smith.
4
Agree 100%
2
Very well said.
1
Ireland more likely to pull off an upset than SA, England or France imo. We're ranked third in the world cause we're playing smart rugby, and we were a last minute try away from stopping your unbeaten year last time we played you.
It hasn't happened yet, but it will happen, and I think soon
2†
But the fact I was going for is there's already only select few teams that have beaten the ABs before, and of them there's teams that have never defeated the All Blacks in a World Cup (England and Wales), so statistically thinking it's more unlikely for that upset to occur in a World Cup game.
The only northern team to ever beat the ABs in a World Cup game is France, and that came from a game where the best second half performance in history was played, and the other was an abnormally poor ABs performance alongside some very dubious miss-calls.
5
Ah right, I didn't get that.
In Ireland we're viewing this World Cup as a bucking of the trend, with our minimum goal being a first ever semi final (however if we lose to France in group we come up against NZ).
Simple fact is we've never been as good as we are now, so basing the opinion on previous world cups is a bit redundant for Ireland. Plus our coach is a Kiwi, so he's used to winning, it rubs off on the players.
3
Ireland is a team I'll be less angry to lose to. France or England then I'll be pissed.
Wales or Ireland are the teams I like to see win. Ireland has a good chance this year, but it just wasn't Ireland's turn to be talked about :)
6
If Ireland loses to France in group play, they should all go home. It would be like losing to Canada....Oops did I just jinx the Irish? Oh well...
1
The only northern team to ever beat the ABs in a World Cup game is France, and that came from a game where the best second half performance in history was played
I'm guessing you are talking about the match on 6th October 2007? I didn't see it so now I'm keen to watch it
1
No the second half one was in 1999. The dubious officiating and absolute torrid All Black performance was 2007.
And it happened on the 7th of October in NZ, conveniently on my fucking birthday :(
1
You mean one bullshit penalty away from winning..... though we're not salty, nope we accept our defeat without bringing up that bullshit call, DEPSITE having pretty much SLAUGHTERED the all blacks for 60 minutes, nope we take it gracefully.....
1†
look, I was salty as shit too, but there's one unforgivable fact from the game. We didn't score once in the second half. You can't sit on a lead vs the all blacks, keep em down and out.
Peno was bullshit, but we shouldn't have been in that position to begin with
4
Don't you mean the try France scored from by an offside player who deliberately obstructed the halfback in two separate rucks, and then scooped up the loose ball and the ref waived play on.
Pretty easy for a shit team to look like they are playing well when the referee ignores players who have never been onside for 5 minutes and interfere with the oppositions backline so they can't get to the ball.
1
Will: they are the best team
Won't: another team might beat them.
18
Well... you're dead fucking right mate!
11
Why they will:
- See name of team.
Why they won't:
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France in Cardiff
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Ireland
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Food poisoning
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Choking
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Bad refs
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Not being hardened enough come quarters
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1991-2010 says they don't.
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Injuries
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Literal weight of a nation
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Potential sabotage
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Dan not playing his best
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SBW throwing an intercept
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Plane crash in Cardiff, killing every New Zealander in the stadium and miraculously leaving any other nationality unscathed.
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Wayne Barnes
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France in Cardiff
16
They're the 2015 All Blacks. This isn't the same team from 8 years ago that everybody cites as their reason for the AB's impending failure. Different outlook, different coaching, different mentality, different level of confidence, composure, and self-belief. Everybody is so preoccupied with "France in Cardiff" that they've completely ignored the very likely possibility that it's going to be Ireland that has the privilege of losing to the AB's in the quarter.
Since I'm booked on a tour for the quarters, semis and finals, I haven't even considered the possibility of the AB's losing the RWC, let alone why or how they'll lose, so my head is quite firmly buried in the sand thank you very much.
15
France won't make it out of the quarters....
1
Will:
- World-class players across the park
- Air of invincibility
Wont:
- The temptation to listen to sentiment and give older players a farewell rather than pick on form
- Public pressure will build after any loss
- Trouble defending lineouts close to the try line (like every other team if this becomes the tactic of the 2015 World Cup though)
12
The temptation to listen to sentiment and give older players a farewell rather than pick on form
I presume you're talking about Mealamu, McCaw and Carter?
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McCaw is talismanic and a complete leader. There's no other word for it. When he's on the field they go up another gear. That on its own is enough to keep him on the field; the fact he's also the form #7 going into the RWC counts too.
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Carter remains NZ's strongest #10 based on all round experience. He's a prodigious kicker, runs great lines, deft offloader and all round performer. Tactically he's fantastic, strategically - especially in combo with McCaw - he's unbelievably good.
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Mealamu...yeah. Look I don't know, he still wants it and he's still a solid player, but Coles is pretty close.
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Sentimentality counts for nothing - Hansen is not De Villiers; the ABs are not the Boks. If there is competitive advantage to be gained from having experienced players on the field, Hansen will take it.
5
They will: most depth in players. They won't: poor goal kicking
11
I think with Carter and Sopoanga with kicking duties we will be okay. At this point Barret will have to regain confidence in first five and who knows where Crude is. But Dan and Lima both have the requires % at goal to be confident that our downfall wouldn't be as a result of unconverted tries or penalties. Atleast my opinion anyway.
9
I agree the kicking is not the biggest thing to worry about. Hopefully Sopoaga gets a few games in before the RWC to get a feel of the big stage but Carter is looking fairly good. At this point Cruden will be a wild card just because of how long he has been out with injury.
4
As far as I know Cruden is out until the end of the year. He's not going to be a factor.
8
crudens injured bro.
2
I have to honestly say there's no reason why they won't and every reason they will.
Everything points to them retaining the title, they just play the game better in every single area and are much stronger than they were in 2011.
It is difficult to imagine anyone beating them.
10
Why they will:
- RWC's are about depth. Injuries to key players are a certainty. NZ has exceptional depth.
- High confidence being the incumbent cup holders.
- Ability to play to win for the entire 80 minutes.
- They play better when they are behind on the scoreboard.
- Being the top side they force sides to play to their game plan, rather than their own.
- A long held All Black core strategy is to score as quickly as possible after being scored against. It may seem moot but Rugby is about winning the 5 minute battles and motivation plays a huge factor. This strategy is a factor in their success because it re-motivates the side to a goal throughout the whole game.
- They have an excellent ability to regain possession after kickoff.
- Many of their players are the top players in the world at their position.
- They are a side with intelligent players, and coaching staff, and are constantly pushing the envelope in terms of developing new tactics and strategy.
- Much of their side will be bedded down well before the RWC, as opposed to teams like England, Australia, France or South Africa who are still experimenting.
Why they won't:
Struggling to think of some, so take these with a grain of salt. Just trying to add to the conversation.
- Shag has a weakness for arrogance which may negatively affect his coaching performance when good sides show up.
- After Argentina's success with the driving maul they will be tested there. This probably won't work though - they will train a great deal after that.
- Traditionally they lose some of their drive in tournaments.
- The All Blacks can sometimes suffer from being "out passioned" by passionate sides. This is the reason France has had success against them in the past, or how Samoa played well against them.
- Question marks over the physical abilities of certain older players.
- There will be a mental battle of trying to ignore the favourites tag.
9
A question about Shag. Normally I don't consider him a weakness in the side at all, but a few people outside of NZ have mentioned he's a potential spanner in the works so it's very possible I'm missing something. What do you think he's arrogant with?
13
Good question, I'm curious. Seems humble to me.
5
He's said the wrong thing on public a couple of times, the mealamu headbutt instance springs to mind. Rubs people the wrong way and makes things a bit harder for the abs.
People don't mind if you're winning so long as you're winning with respect. They don't like it when you're cocks about winning. Something the Australian cricket team are experiencing at the moment. They are massively successful but not well liked outside of Australia.
So shag may be rightly proud of the abs but he has also got the ability to come across as mouthy and arrogant based on cheeky off the cuff comments.
3
Ah I see. I just see him as dry as fuck and likes to take the piss.
3
You aren't allowed to that because they get hurt feelings. Why can't you be arrogant when you're currently the best team in the world?
1
Having won last time and gotten the hoodo of our backs, I have to say that I don't mind if we fail to win (I say this now, come back to me in a few weeks...).
I just want the AB's to play open, attractive football and to beat the teams that don't.
It could go any of several ways, as usual, previous outings against Northern teams won't be determinative due to the differences in playing seasons. When all the nations are peaking at the same time international rugby is a much more even playing field (granted for the home nations (including Ireland if isn't a home nation), France and the tri-nations only).
8
Having won last time and gotten the hoodo of our backs, I have to say that I don't mind if we fail to win (I say this now, come back to me in a few weeks...).
Imagine the pressure if they hadn't. That team did a service to the next decade of All Blacks.
7
Will:
Depth and talent.
Won't:
- Set pieces particularly the roling maul.
- Goalkicking can be shoddy at times (Mainly Barrett, but it's not unheard of for Carter etc to have a bad day).
- Mental blocks with world cups
7
Will:
- As of today, they are the best side in world rugby
- Many of the players have experience in how to win, and lose a world cup. That maturity counts for a lot.
- Talented and destructive players having a great 2015 so far, e.g. Savea, Nonu, Aaron Smith, Reid.
Won't:
- Injuries can be covered by great talent coming in, but many players complement each other so well, it may cause issues with structure and lack of dimension.
- Forward pack is getting older, and with the backline breaking the advantage line they need to be fast to the breakdown to create quick phase play, and to stop players being isolated.
- Still questions about depth at 10.
- Tough to win a world cup overseas, especially in a country like England who will have a lot of momentum behind them.
- Weak pool opposition outside of Argentina.
6
I'm curious as to what the conversation about lack of depth at 10 is about?
To me, Carter and Cruden are solid at 10, as is Slade (whom I think is very underrated - a really consistent 10), and Barrett is one of the most exciting, fun-filled 10s in the world.
1
Crudes is injured. Slade patchy. Carter has been injured before multiple times.
1
This is true. But for the future, With DC gone I see 4 great possible 10s for NZ, if you include Sopoaga. Slade will be in the mix.
1
slade is going overseas after the world cup
1
Reasons Why they will:
- Depth. With most positions we have 2-3 players who could play for most other international teams, but are stuck on the bench.
- Favourites. Being the World No. 1 for the last 6 years nearly, and always being the team to beat. We're also been considered the favourites for the previous World Cups.
Reasons why they won't:
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Playing away from home. We've only won it at home, with South Africa the only other team to have won at home and they have had a World Cup win outside of home, and all the other winners have won outside of home.
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Pressure. The pressure of the Media and people of New Zealand for them to win, especially being defending champs
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Just being the All Blacks. Have always been the team to beat in world rugby, so who ever we play in the Knockouts will bring their A-Game especially. i.e. France in 2011, won easily against in the Pool Game, and some will say deserved to be winners in the final
5
Why they will:
- They have pretty much everything covered with some of the best players in the world and great coaching so far. No point saying more.
Why they wont:
- Outhalf vulnerable, Carter not at his best and backups not the best.
- NZ tend to bottle World Cups, and they played horrendously in 2011 WC.
- Ireland have to beat them sometime, why not now? It'll happen...
5
The all blacks played well in the 2011 WC , it was just the final which would be considered a let down
2
True, they didn't have an easy path by any means. They deserved to win the tournament, but France played better in the final (which was also shocking)
0
Won't. They've never never won a RWC outside of NZL.
5
By that logic Ireland will never beat the All Blacks anywhere.
2
Makes sense to me.
1
Why they wont: New Zealand has never successfully defeated Uruguay, either at or away from home. Food for thought.
To be honest I'm sick of everyone bringing up the whole 'what will happen if the All Blacks meet Uruguay in Cardiff' scenario.
[deleted]
I'd say get a sense of humour if the Teros were a joke.