NBA prospect primer: PG Lonzo Ball

Unlike the NFL Draft process which unfolds over months and months, the NBA season turns around to the draft so quickly that it can sneak up on you. In advance of June 22, we're going to take a look at some of the top prospects and their respective strengths and weaknesses.

Obviously, a lot of redditors know about these prospects already and have formed their own opinions, but this series is intended for those NBA fans who haven't studied the draft yet and want a one-stop shop to get to know the next generation of NBA talent.

######PG Lonzo Ball, UCLA

his career

Well before LaVar Ball jumped into the national spotlight, the Ball family was already well known in Southern California. Lonzo and his two brothers led Chino Hills to an undefeated season and title, leading Lonzo to be considered a consensus top 10 (not surefire top 3) recruit.

He stayed local at UCLA, where his reputation spread across the country. Steve Alford's Bruins had an overload of offensive talent, from his own son Bryce Alford to freshman PF T.J. Leaf. Of course, Lonzo Ball was the star of the show, leading the team to a 31-5 record (a stark improvement over 15-17 the year before.)

Lonzo and UCLA famously struggled against De'Aaron Fox and Kentucky in the Tournament, but that doesn't take away from a spectacular one-year impact in Westwood. After averaging 14.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists, Ball turned pro, with his stock having risen into the top 3 discussion.

why he'll succeed

Lonzo Ball is one of the most unusual prospects I can recall, and one of the most difficult to project to the next level. There's no denying that he has rare attributes -- most of all, his court vision and passing.

LeBron James is the best player that I've seen at racing into the paint at full speed, then whipping the ball 90 miles an hour to an open teammate in the opposite corner that none of us even saw. His court vision is unparalleled. John Wall is another star that can make plays like that from time to time. Lonzo Ball makes plays like that as well. If you watch him play (even in a bad game against Kentucky) there are at least two "wow" passes every game.

Given his passing ability and his size for the position at 6'6", it's only natural that Ball is compared to greats like Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd. Another PG prospect that I'd compare him to is Shaun Livingston, who was a 6'7" PG in high school with exceptional passing ability and potential pre-injury.

Unlike Livingston, Lonzo Ball also flashes deep range as well. His shot looks wonky (with a criss-cross low release point), but he did hit 41.2% from beyond the arc. He also shoots quickly and from DEEP range, which is crucial when you have a low release like he does. If Ball's shot does translate, then we could be talking about an All-Star.

why he'll struggle

Lonzo Ball may have gotten torched by the speedy De'Aaron Fox in the tournament, but I don't think his defense will be a major liability. He doesn't have the quickness to lock up elite point guards, but then again -- who can? There are only 2-3 point guards in the league that I'd consider true "stoppers" at their position (Patrick Beverly comes to mind.) Everyone else struggles with the new rules and spacing, just like Lonzo Ball will.

On the plus side, his size should allow him to hang defensively, even when he's switched onto bigger guards and some wings. His length allowed him to contest -- grabbing 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. It's also an asset when it comes to defensive rebounding. Simply put, I'm not that worried about his defense.

So what is the concern with Ball? That shooting. The three point percentage looked good, but Ball did struggle at the line, hitting just 67.3% of his freebies (albeit on only 2.7 attempts per game). Ball struggles to score in isolation as well, either on a stop-and-shoot or as a driver and finisher, which makes me nervous about his scoring potential.

If Ball's shot can't translate to the NBA, then that will severely limit his upside. He can still be an effective starter given his size and passing, but he may end up being someone like Ricky Rubio. It's not a terrible fate to have, but it'd fall short of his mammoth expectations.

best team fits

LAL (#2) -- Personally I'd pass on Lonzo Ball in favor of my top 2 prospects, but there's no denying that he'd be a natural fit in his home of Los Angeles. Every rookie is going to have some growing pains, but the L.A. market would embrace Ball like no other in the league. He also appears to be a great fit for Luke Walton's preferred offense, where he can help develop a ball-moving mentality.

PHI (#3) -- Ben Simmons will command the ball quite a bit from his PF position, but Lonzo Ball doesn't necessarily need the ball in his hands to succeed, given his (potential) range and (potential) defense and rebounding. More than anything, he'd help the team coalesce together, as the chemistry hasn't been very strong on the court so far.

SAC (#5) -- I doubt Lonzo Ball lasts this long, but Sacramento's another interesting fit as well. The Kings need a signature star for the post DeMarcus Cousins era, and California's own Lonzo Ball has more of that "star" quality than Buddy Hield. Of course, having a a great natural shooter like Hield across from him would be great for Ball as well. In Sac-town, he'd get a lion's share of the responsibility and a good chance to win Rookie of the Year.

overall grades

For this, we're using the scale that:

  • = bust

** = rotational player

*** = starter

**** = good starter

***** = All-Star

immediate impact : ***

low-end career : ***

upside career : *****

total score : 11 stars. (#3 prospect on our big board)

previous prospect primers

#1 -- Josh Jackson, #2 -- Markelle Fultz, #3 -- Lonzo Ball, #4 -- Jayson Tatum, #5 -- Malik Monk, #6 -- Jonathan Isaac, #7 -- Dennis Smith, #8 -- De'Aaron Fox, # 9 -- Lauri Markkanen, #10 -- Jarrett Allen, other lottery talent

Posted Jun 16, 2017, 4:01 PM UTC · edited

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