NBA prospect primer: non top 10

I already went through my personal top 10 NBA Draft prospects (links below), but I wanted to touch on other players that I'd rank in the lottery discussion.

######PG Donovan Mitchell, Louisville

his career

A middling college prospect who didn't do much as a freshman, the 6'3" Donovan Mitchell broke out as a sophomore for Louisville, jumping up from 7.4 points to 15.6 points per game.

upside

If Mitchell can continue to work on his three-point shot, there's the potential for him to develop into a great "3-and-D" guard at the next level. He's already got the "D" down, with a 6'10" wingspan that helped translate to 2.1 steals in college. I compared him to Avery Bradley in a previous post.

downside

As a smaller shooter guard -- Mitchell will get the "tweener" rep. He either needs to refine his point guard skills, or ensure that he's a consistent shooter to make it. Both are possible, but neither is guaranteed.

immediate impact : **

low-end career : **

upside career : ***

total score : 7 stars. (#11 prospect on our big board)

######PG Frank Ntilikina, France

background

The son of Rwandan parents, Frank Ntilkina was born in Belgium and raised in France. He's already playing in their A Pro League (a higher level than fellow Germany prospect Isaiah Hartenstein) despite being only 18 years old.

upside

At 6'5", Ntilikina has great size for the point guard position, especially in today's NBA where he'll be asked to switch on defense. That defensive potential is perhaps Ntilikina's best calling card, with the idea that he can be a "plus" defender on either PGs or SGs. Although he's playing at a high level in Europe, he's still a young, raw player with upside.

downside

I'm a fan of citing length and wingspan for prospects, but when it's the first thing you mention, it may be a red flag. Quite simply: I'm not sure that Ntilikina's a true point guard in the NBA in terms of his quickness or court vision. And if he's not... what is he? An average SG or SF? A rotational player? It's more likely than not.

immediate impact : *

low-end career : **

upside career : ****

total score : 7 stars. (#12 prospect on our big board)

######C Zach Collins, Gonzaga

background

In high school, the big man played on a stacked Vegas team that featured Chase Jeter and Stephen Zimmerman, both big-time recruits. Collins landed on Gonzaga, where he came off the bench in support of their veteran center Przemek Karnowski. Still, Collins' stats were so promising (10.0 points, 5.9 rebounds in 17 minutes a night) that he jumped on the momentum and into the draft earlier than expected.

upside

If Collins had stayed at Gonzaga and inherited their starting job, he could have been in the National Player of the Year discussion. Candidly, I thought the team was better with Collins in the lineup already, as they were faster and more versatile. You'd hate to fall into the trap of comparing white players to white players, but oh well. I see some shades of Cody Zeller to his game, as well as his former teammate Stephen Zimmerman; they all have agility and the shooting potential to be true "stretch 5s."

downside

Stat-heads love Collins because of his per-minute totals, including 1.8 blocks in just 17.2 minutes per game. Imagine if he played 35 minutes! He could be a monster! Well... maybe not. It's important to note that Collins drew 2.7 personal fouls per game as well. As a reserve, he could come in and contest more shots without concern about foul trouble. He wasn't a feared rim-protector -- in fact, some teams attacked him. I imagine NBA players will do that even more. If Collins can't hold up on that end, he has the potential to be a disappointment.

immediate impact : **

low-end career : **

upside career : ***

total score : 7 stars. (#13 prospect on our big board)

######C Harry Giles, Duke

background

A high school phenom and consensus #1 player in his class, Harry Giles constantly got comped to Chris Webber -- which is about the highest praise a prep PF can receive. Unfortunately, multiple injuries (including two ACL tears) sent his stock into a freefall. He barely played as a freshman at Duke, and bolted for the draft despite that.

upside

There's always a chance Harry Giles regains his form that made him a top 3 prospect. Perhaps he'll improve through continued rehab. Or perhaps he played tentatively at Duke for fear of an injury, but will turn it "on" in the NBA. If the lights can come indeed turn back on for Giles, the sky's the limit. He showed the fluidity, length, and skill as a prep that would border on All-Star potential.

downside

Of course, there's the MASSIVE risk that Giles is cooked. He looked like a shell of himself at Duke this year (3.9 points, 3.8 rebounds per game). Given that, I'd recommend that only teams with multiple picks (or a well stocked bench) take a chance on him. It's the ultimate boom/bust pick in the draft. If you want to play it safe, I also happen to like sophomore PF Ivan Rabb as well. To me, Rabb's a much safer bet as a rotational big with the potential to be a low-end starter as a smallball center.

immediate impact : *

low-end career : *

upside career : *****

total score : 7 stars. (#14 prospect on our big board)

previous prospect primers

#1 -- Josh Jackson, #2 -- Markelle Fultz, #3 -- Lonzo Ball, #4 -- Jayson Tatum, #5 -- Malik Monk, #6 -- Jonathan Isaac, #7 -- Dennis Smith, #8 -- De'Aaron Fox, # 9 -- Lauri Markkanen, #10 -- Jarrett Allen, other lottery talent