Source
r/nba•
protos32

Rookie of the Year Power Rankings: Week 2

Since 2003 the ROTY has been won by the player with the highest average Game Score.

Rank|Player|Δ|Ppg|Rbs|Ast|Stl|Blk|Fg%|3P%|FT%|Avg Game Score| :--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:-- 1.|DeAndre Ayton|+2|17.5|10.3|3.8|0.7|0.7|64.4%|0%|84.6%|17.3 |2.|Trae Young|-1|19.8|3.4|6.8|0.8|0.4|39.2%|32.4%|78.1%|13.2 |3.|Luka Doncic|+2|18.7|6.2|4|0.8|0.3|42.9%|34.9%|70.4%|11.3 |4.|Marvin Bagley|-|13.7|7.2|1.2|0.8|1.2|55.9%|40%|56%|10.4 |5.|Jaren Jackson|-3|13|5.6|1.4|1.4|1.2|45.1%|15.4%|81%|10.2 |6.|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander|-|9|3.7|3.7|1.2|0.3|48.7%|60%|86.7|8.4 |7.|Miles Bridges|+1|9.3|3.3|1.2|0.7|0.3|63.9%|43.8%|60%|8.2 |8.|Colin Sexton|+8|11|1.8|2.2|0.5|0|42.6%|0%|91.3%|6.3 |9.|Mo Bamba|-|5.5|5.2|1.2|0.2|1.5|48.3%|33.3%|25%|6.1 |10.|Omari Spellman|New|7.5|4.3|1.3|0.3|0.3|47.8%|45.5%|75%|6.1 |11.|Donte DiVincenzo|+1|7.7|3.3|1.5|0.3|0.3|47.2%|27.3%|75%|5.4 |12.|Wendell Carter|-1|7.2|5.8|2|0.2|1.8|40.9%|25%|60%|5.3 |13.|Elie Okobo|New|8|1.3|2.5|0|0|50%|41.7%|87.5%|5.3| |14.|Kevin Huerter|New|4.2|5|1.8|0.6|0.2|35%|41.7%|66.7%|5.1 |15.|Johnathan Williams|New|5.3|3.8|0.8|0.3|0.8|62.5%|0%|20%|4.7 |16.|Allonzo Trier|-9|8|2.3|1.2|0.2|0.3|37.5%|37.5%|88.2%|4.3 |17.|Josh Okogie|New|8|6|1|1.3|0.3|31%|22.2%|66.7%|4.1 |18.|Kevin Knox|-5|9.3|2|0|0.7|0.3|35.5%|44.4%|40%|3.7 |19.|Mikal Bridges|New|5.5|2|0.8|1|0|39.3%|31.3%|85.7%|3.7 |20.|Landry Shamet|+2|4.2|1.5|0.8|0.5|0.2|29.6%|35%|66.7%|2.7 |21.|Jalen Brunson|-6|5.3|1.7|1.7|0.5|0|31%|30%|0%|2.4 |22.|Chandler Hutchison|New|3|3.2|0.4|0.6|0|41.2%|0|25%|2

*Minimum requirement of 15 minutes per game

Week 1 Power Rankings

Posted Oct 29, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC

18387
sixseventeen[SAS] Bruce Bowen•

I love watching Ayton play he already has a nice faceup game and he’s averaging 4 assists

107
Perksofthesewalls[GSW] Dorell Wright•

This is great content protos, interested in keeping up with this for the rest of the season. I do believe the top 3 will stay as is, but the order will probably change a lot.

69
protos32OP[PHO] Devin Booker•

Thanks, I appreciate it! I'm going to do my best to keep this up.

30
polishedRaptors•

Yeah pretty sweet, can you add Draft position?

6
amak316Bucks•

Great work, love this idea, I’d really like to see minutes per game to see who has a chance of making it to the top if they are given more minutes late in the season. Would also love to see 3 point attempts per game as it’s interesting to know if the guys who have high percentages are actually elite shooters. It’s great content as is though just me being curious, great work!

1
Honk4Tits[DET] Joe Dumars•

Turnovers need to be added for more context. For instance Ayton is averaging 1.2 TOG, Young 3.6 and Doncic 4.0

61
junkit33•

Tough to compare turnovers across positions/roles.

3.6 is actually not bad for Young at all as the primary PG/ballhandler/scorer, whereas 4 for Doncic is pretty high given his combo role on a deeper team.

36
griffithdidnothing10•

1 is still impressive for Ayton given his assist count and points scored.

24
thecolbraTimberwolves•

8.2% turnover percent vs. 16% for trae. But trae is currently at a 28% usg vs 19% for ayton. Still impressive though.

13
griffithdidnothing10•

I do agree with the guy, somewhat. Trae is adjusting to a position in which he's asked to make plays and initiate plays. I'm not sure Ayton has that same responsibility to be a playmaker and break the defense down.

2
junkit33•

I don't disagree - it's been excellent. But, if he were over 2 it would be concerning given how the Suns are using him.

2
griffithdidnothing10•

Eh, he's still a rook. It's only been like 6 games man. Even a big may have trouble adjusting to things like how quick guys are able to get in and help on him. Losing the ball when taking it to the paint, some errant passes, etc.

1
Julian_CaesarMavericks•

However context is also important: about a third of Doncic's turnovers are missed passes by his teammates. That will go away over time as they start expecting passes and/or he learns which players won't be able to anticipate them.

7
huisjasonRaptors•

What about throw better passes or rather pass when your teammates are looking/should expect it? Whenever there's a pass leading to a turnover, it's almost always the passer's fault.

-3
Julian_CaesarMavericks•

Lol what?? Every single pass requires a passer and a receiver. And every pass is different. Saying a blanket statement like "almost always passers fault" is straight up wrong. Some of them are passers fault, some of them are receivers fault. I could even agree with you if you said the passer should have a little more blame on average.

But I can tell you from watching the Mavs games, Luka throws about 2 passes each game that are on time, great place, and good idea, but the teammate either gets bumped away by defense after pass is made (DSJ alley oops) or the teammate misses the pass because they didn't expect it (DAJ does this once or twice a game). They are not indicative of some underlying problem with ball security (which is what is implied by a high turnover rate statistic).

1
sixseventeen[SAS] Bruce Bowen•

1.2?!?!?!???

22
Honk4Tits[DET] Joe Dumars•

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html

10
sixseventeen[SAS] Bruce Bowen•

And an 85% shooter from the FT line. He’s really something else

33
NotsdlogGrizzlies•

Jaren Jackson is at 81%. Love seeing big guys that can hit free throws

8
Sartuk[CLE] Kevin Love•

It's absolutely absurd for a big man scoring that many points a game and getting that many assists to have a turnover rate that low. He's the anti-Dwight.

I expect he'll have a few bad turnover games and his overall rate will rise, but damn that's a positive sign going forward.

3
sixseventeen[SAS] Bruce Bowen•

He’s so good passing out of double teams because I assume that’s all he saw at Arizona. He has that uncanny ability of passing out of double teams cleanly damn near every time

2
Tailsofthesix•

There was a play when Josh Jackson passed the ball over the top to Ayton, but it was too far out, and Ayton had to go get it. Ayton got doubled by Jackson's defender, while being inches away from stepping out of bounds, dude still managed to pass it back to Josh Jackson in his shooters pocket.

2
justalemontree[SAS] Tim Duncan•

NANI?!

1
protos32OP[PHO] Devin Booker•

Yeah that's a good idea, I'll remember that for next week.

4
KlaytheistRaptors•

To be fair, Doncic and Young handle the ball a lot more than Ayton.

2
SactownEricKings•

Does everyone in the top 5 start except our Bagel?

50
protos32OP[PHO] Devin Booker•

Yeah, Jackson is starting now because of the injury to JaMychal Green

36
SactownEricKings•

Gotcha thanks man!

8
CryHav0cSpurs•

Hoping JMG comes back strong for my fantasy team.

1
roma25876ers•

How are Kings fans feeling about Bagley? He's put up some decent numbers so far.

10
doyouevenjazzKings Tankwagon•

The overall feeling is very optimistic. He's not getting a ton of minutes at the moment, but his play is visibly improving every single game. The real surprise is that he's not a negative asset on defense, sure he has a ways to go before he can be labeled good, but he is solid one-on-one and does a decent job protecting the rim.

His rebounding and overall effort is exactly what the kings frontcourt needed, and if he develops a consistent 3 point shot he could become an extremely deadly offensive player. It feels weird saying it but it's starting to make sense why they picked him over Doncic. Assuming he and Fox develop well, they're gonna be a ridiculous combo to deal with offensively.

Honestly we're just more surprised that Bagley's looking good right off the bat and Harry Giles isn't, since it was the exact opposite in summer league and preseason. Hopefully Harry can turn it around and show more of his playmaking skills, but it seems like he needs to slow down and not force things as much as he is.

29
JaylenBrown007[SAC] De'Aaron Fox•

I second basically all of this as a life long kings fan. Bagley had a 5 block game. That doesn’t happen with liabilities on defense, which a primary concern. He definitely had gotten better every. single. game. I’m optimistic. Our biggest weakness now is half court offense... Doncic would have been real helpful, however, with Bogi coming back soon, I’m not majorly concerned.

11
dantam9576ers•

You can definitely have a 5 block game in your career and still be a liability defensively. That being said, I think the knocks on him defensively were overstated anyways

1
redwashingKings•

Pretty excited. His defense is much better than expected, still has to work on it but it's actually decent with potential to be elite. His rebounding have been exactly what we need. His offensive game is raw but he shows flashes of his ceiling from time to time which looks like nothing short of amazing.

Honestly I was fully on the Luka hype train before the draft, still not off it since he looks pretty great too, but I can see why the FO wanted Bagley. If he actually reaches to 90% of his ceiling he'll be a superstar.

3
roma25876ers•

Legit happy that you guys are happy. Plus I need Kings to be decent so Celts don't grab Zion in next year's draft :)

1
AUGH_MY_SPIRIT[SAC] De'Aaron Fox•

Yeah, I really want to see this on a per-minute level versus a per-game level if only because Bagel isn't starting.

3
OlafdePolaf[ATL] DeAndre' Bembry•

Look happy about Trae of course but even more excited by how 30th pick Omari Spellman is looking so far.

34
shitidk2266Suns•

I'm happy with Ayton and I love how the 31st pick Okobo looked yesterday. Decent chance he is our starting pg from here on out. Hopefully Coach benches Canaan.

11
Hooligan8Hawks•

Nice to see 3 Hawks on the list, but bear in mind, our rookies are getting way more minutes than a lot of other rookies which is skewing the odds in their favor. That's a good thing for their development, but it also means that these rankings do not automatically mean that they are objectively better than the rookies who are ranked lower than them.

2
thisishorsepoopBucks•

Donte's been nice so far. I could get used to this whole "drafting actual NBA players in the first round" thing.

16
JIMMYBUTLERSSONBulls•

I was nervous he might bust considering he went from likely undrafted to first round pick after one game. Glad he's doing well

7
stomp9715mavTimberwolves•

Josh Ok-hoagie!

13
mbarnarSuns•

Ayton just looks like he can effortlessly get a double double in just about every game it's crazy to watch.

10
JetzuCavaliers•

He gets out of bed with 20 and 10

6
bluemagic124[CHI] Rajon Rondo•

Jahlil 2.0

-3
FufuGretzky•

Lol chill

1
deemerrittHornets•

Dont sleep on Miles Bridges. He has been getting more playing time and shined more in every game.

9
roma25876ers•

Crazy impressive in the game against Sixers! His three-point stroke looks nice and we know he can sky. So bummed we missed on him.

2
deemerrittHornets•

He really just needs a better handle.

3
forfunziPacers•

Where's Rodions Kurucs

7
protos32OP[PHO] Devin Booker•

Only averages 14.3 mpg. I think was injured last week. He'll probably jump back on next week.

7
PatBurrellTheMachine•

Missed opportunity to insert Ben Simmons on the list

7
epicnerd427[MEM] Andrew Harrison•

Hopefully Jaren's 3pt% improves throughout the season. Cant imagine it staying this low but damn... 15% is bad

6
raftguideGrizzlies•

After that summer league I'm confident we just keep having him shoot it. He's going to shake off these early jitters and catch fire. You can see the trial by fire mode his head is in right now. It's going to start feeling familiar for him again.

2
Julian_CaesarMavericks•

This looks about right to me. Doncic and Young close to each other with Ayton a step ahead of them. And Bagley and JJJ close behind. Can't wait to see who improves the most by the end of the season.

Edit: on second look more like Doncic/Bagley/JJJ slightly behind Young with Ayton a full step ahead.

6
xelivielMavericks•

Luka is definetly not behind trae right now lol. They maybe even offensively but luka years ahead of trae defensively

3†
DelonWright[TOR] Delon Wright•

Jalen Brunson has really impressed me actually. I see a lot of Lowry in him. Crazy how he fell all the way to the second round just because of his size

5
handcomeguy•

Yeah Rick Carlisle appreciates his game and also surprised he wasn't a first round pick.

3
Eli3Key[UTA] Rudy Gobert•

I think Ayton is a pretty clear favorite and he's honestly impressed me a lot coming into the season.

The big knock on him was his defense. While he still looks a little behind in terms of rotations and his defensive counting stats leave a little to be desired, he makes a net positive impact offensively. His ability to efficiently dominate the offense as a pure five (instead of a hybrid 4/5 like he was at Arizona) is really impressive. I'm interested to see the adjustments that teams make to contain him down the stretch. Phoenix got a good one for sure.

I do think this is still a two man race between him and Luka. I think that change is on the horizon for the Mavs offensively. Luka has been their best offensive player by a mile. His efficiency leaves a bit to be desired and I don't think he's ready to assume full control over the offensive system. However, there's a lot of possessions where he is resigned to spotting up in the corner while Wesley Matthews or JJ Barea dominate the ball. I would imagine that changes sooner rather than later. Last night in the DAL/UTAH game, I was terrified when Luka had the ball. He had the tools to break down the defense but Utah honestly got bailed out a lot by Matthews and Barea.

5
JIMMYBUTLERSSONBulls•

Wendell Carter jr protecc, but right now no many attacc.

4
Pippen_Aint_EasyBulls•

but most of all, he bricc

4
borososThunder•

Holy shit trae is averaging 20

4
Womprats76ers•

Cool content, thanks. Could you include a "Team" column? I don't remember them all

4
Tricksulo[PHI] Allen Iverson•

How is average game score calculated?

2
knowyourbrainRockets•

(Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)

totally didn't google that..../s

6
knowyourbrainRockets•

Nice. I know it's 15+, but I would also include mpg. Why do you think AGS is the best metric for ranking? I know there's no single perfect advanced stat, but if there's room, maybe include others, e.g. RPM. Thanks for this.

2
OutZonedSuns•

I'm not OP, but I feel like it's a decent enough metric in this case. Even good rookies are super inconsistent, but average game score can give you an idea of what you're likely to get from them day-in-day out. Plus it rewards strong individual play even if the team is bad, and most of the best rookies are on teams that were bad last year.

RPM would be nice to have displayed here too though.

2
at2wellsPacers•

I dont think he's making a statement that AGS is the best metric, only that it so happens that since 2003 every ROY also had the highest AGS. So we can be pretty confident that it will show us who the ROY will be.

You can add or subtract whatever you'd like. But then its not the metric that we know has produced the last 14 ROY's.

1