9.6 vs. 9.7 High-MMR Analysis
I posted a small sample of this a couple weeks ago. This time, it's expanded to 6948 games on Patch 9.6 and 7965 games on Patch 9.7. I kept games if at least 4 players had:
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At least one data point of 2700+ MMR from whatismymmr.com on their history graph.
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NA/EUW servers.
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Played at least 10 games since the beginning of Patch 9.5.
I was pretty lazy and didn't recheck anyone's MMR, so some games that should have been kept were dropped.
I dropped plots into this album alongside my thoughts/interpretations. The main plots people may be interested in are:
I state this in the album a couple times: When mostly high win-rate champions are banned, the average win-rate for the rest of the roster increases as 50% champions win in every game. I think some of these plots are deceptively favorable towards weaker champions.
ARAM win-loss records for champion classes (as taken from Riot's API, which has some odd assignments like Diana/Rumble/Skarner/Trundle as fighters) below. I treated Gnar/Rakan/Thresh/Urgot as melee champions as their playstyle is much closer to other melees and they can somewhat distort these tables.
| Condition | 9.6 Pick Rate [%] | 9.6 Win Rate [%] | 9.7 Pick Rate [%] | 9.7 Win Rate [%] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 100.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 |
| As blue side | 50.0 | 51.6 | 50.0 | 53.7 |
| As red side | 50.0 | 48.4 | 50.0 | 46.3 |
| As melee champions | 41.9 | 48.1 | 45.1 | 49.2 |
| As ranged champions | 58.1 | 51.4 | 54.9 | 50.7 |
| As assassin champions | 7.1 | 41.5 | 8.3 | 46.9 |
| As fighter champions | 19.4 | 48.7 | 21.3 | 49.5 |
| As mage champions | 29.1 | 51.2 | 26.6 | 50.0 |
| As marksman champions | 22.3 | 51.3 | 22.8 | 51.0 |
| As support champions | 10.4 | 52.4 | 9.0 | 50.4 |
| As tank champions | 11.8 | 49.9 | 12.0 | 50.8 |
4-5 melee teams are still rare and still pretty bad.
| Composition | 9.6 Pick Rate [%] | 9.6 Win Rate [%] | 9.7 Pick Rate [%] | 9.7 Win Rate [%] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5M, 0R | 00.3 | 29.2 | 00.8 | 40.6 |
| 4M, 1R | 05.5 | 37.3 | 07.6 | 45.0 |
| 3M, 2R | 22.0 | 45.0 | 25.9 | 48.3 |
| 2M, 3R | 40.3 | 51.5 | 38.8 | 51.0 |
| 1M, 4R | 26.6 | 54.1 | 23.0 | 52.1 |
| 0M, 5R | 05.2 | 53.0 | 03.9 | 50.4 |
For reading the next four tables, the upper left to lower right diagonal is each team having an equal number of melee/ranged champions. Lower left is the most unbalanced melee/ranged teams. Pick-rates are low for most entries, but I included these to emphasize that having 1-2 more ranged champions was nowhere near as beneficial on 9.7 as 9.6. Particularly, the [1M, 4R] vs. [3M, 2R] and [2M, 3R] vs. [4M, 1R] team compositions have decent pick-rates and much closer win-rates. Don't draw sweeping conclusions from the first column or last row.
The Melee-Ranged matchups by percentage in 9.6:
|5M, 0R|4M, 1R|3M, 2R|2M, 3R|1M, 4R|0M, 5R
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
5M, 0R|00.0| - | - | - | - | -
4M, 1R|00.0|00.3| - | - | - | -
3M, 2R|00.2|02.4|04.3| - | - | -
2M, 3R|00.3|04.2|17.3|16.7| - | -
1M, 4R|00.2|03.4|12.6|21.3|06.7| -
0M, 5R|00.0|00.6|02.9|04.1|02.3|00.2
The Melee-Ranged matchups by percentage in 9.7:
|5M, 0R|4M, 1R|3M, 2R|2M, 3R|1M, 4R|0M, 5R
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
5M, 0R|00.0| - | - | - | - | -
4M, 1R|00.1|00.5| - | - | - | -
3M, 2R|00.3|03.5|06.6| - | - | -
2M, 3R|00.7|06.1|20.2|14.7| - | -
1M, 4R|00.5|03.9|12.4|17.9|04.9| -
0M, 5R|00.1|00.6|02.0|03.3|01.5|00.1
The Melee-Ranged win rates for the team with more ranged champions in 9.6:
|5M, 0R|4M, 1R|3M, 2R|2M, 3R|1M, 4R|0M, 5R
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
5M, 0R| - | - | - | - | - | -
4M, 1R|00.0| - | - | - | - | -
3M, 2R|69.2|55.6| - | - | - | -
2M, 3R|63.2|66.6|54.1| - | - | -
1M, 4R|85.7|64.8|61.2|51.1| - | -
0M, 5R|100.0|62.5|58.1|48.8|51.9| -
The Melee-Ranged win rates for the team with more ranged champions in 9.7:
|5M, 0R|4M, 1R|3M, 2R|2M, 3R|1M, 4R|0M, 5R
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
5M, 0R| - | - | - | - | - | -
4M, 1R|75.0| - | - | - | - | -
3M, 2R|54.5|50.2| - | - | - | -
2M, 3R|54.5|57.7|53.6| - | - | -
1M, 4R|69.0|57.7|51.6|52.0| - | -
0M, 5R|50.0|50.0|49.4|51.9|48.7| -
I pulled some data for Mariner's Vengeance that's not really applicable anymore. Apparently Pyke players kept buying it before losing while Darius players kept buying it and winning. Sorted by champions with the most purchases of Mariner's Vengeance.
| Champion | 9.7 Purchases | 9.7 Win Rate [%] |
|---|---|---|
| Master Yi | 156 | 55.1 |
| Pyke | 143 | 38.5 |
| Wukong | 83 | 51.8 |
| Darius | 82 | 64.6 |
| Zed | 78 | 47.4 |
| Yasuo | 74 | 50.0 |
| Lee Sin | 72 | 55.6 |
| Irelia | 71 | 53.5 |
| Talon | 67 | 47.8 |
| Tryndamere | 65 | 50.8 |
I also checked some Runes data, but this is getting kinda long so I'll sum it up as:
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Coup de Grace is way more popular than I expected. I strongly prefer Legend: Tenacity when taking Precision secondary as it gives the option to tenacity-stack against certain team comps.
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Scorch is still more popular though a noticeable amount swapped to Gathering Storm between 9.6 and 9.7.
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Demolish is less popular than I expected relative to Font of Life. It's one lane with 4 turrets...
Posted Apr 17, 2019, 7:39 PM UTC
It's really interesting, really like the champion class chart, every single class got closer to 50% winrate, that is pretty amazing for such a chaotic gamemode and i think i read it right that games are also shorter, seems like more games get to 3 items but then fades out from there into less games. I for one liked longer games and giving late game champs more of a chance but it's alright either way.
Thanks a bunch for collecting all this data, i'm sure u/riot_mort has tons of data already but it's prob nice for him seeing someone also very interested in this.