The COVID-19, and our lock down response, is all very new. Cases are rising and I'm beginning to wonder if we can really stop this, or if it's an inevitability that we will all eventually be exposed to the virus at some point.
If that is, what should we do? I want to try and promote people to be as healthy as possible right now so that if we do just need to go "fight" this things, we are prepared to do so.
Thoughts?
Posted Mar 31, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC
There is a very high likelihood that due to the expected multiple waves the vast majority of society gets in infected.
What we should do is flatten the curve so our medical system can handle the peak of infections requiring hospitalization and to allow for life saving drugs to be discovered and produced.
What this means for future life, who know. But the longer we extend people getting infected, the more chance we have not just for vaccines, but anti-viral which help people fight it - meaning less deaths despite hospital capacity. Anti-virals will likely be ready way ahead of vaccines which are still likely >1 year away.
In summary, delaying infections for the masses means saving lives, not just due to ensuring hospital capacity for everyone who needs it, but also because of technological improvements - some people who get this thing in 6 months that would die today, may not die then.
Edit: I realized I didn't hit the key point of your post, apologizes. However, I would expect the healthier you are now the better you will be to fight it. You also may be doing society a favor from being healthier now- if you fight it better, you may be less symptomatic. People with less symptoms aren't as contagious (this is fact, what is being argued over is how much less contagious you are without symptoms). If you spread that logic across society, it may mean a statistical meaningful number of reduced infections.
Yes I believe it is statistically inevitable that you will be exposed to it yourself, or within your immediate family. We are just proactively trying to spread that timeline out as long as possible to give our healthcare system a fighting chance at helping more of us recover.
Don't touch yo damn face.
Commit to practice social distancing as much as humanly possible (don't live with them? Don't visit them) basically act as though you have the virus, and assume everyone else does too. (I personally like to view everyone as some giant raw chicken and everything they come in contact with has the potential to give me the shitz for dayz!
Wash your hands as often as possible, especially Everytime you get home from the outside world.
Sanitize your hands immediately every time you enter your vehicle from the outside world.
Wipe down commonly touched surfaces in your own home with bleach or alcohol based disinfectant.
Disinfect anything coming into your home (including groceries)
Get a thermometer if you don't have
Have a supply of acetaminophen based cold medication
Have a supply of a couple days of non parishable food items in case you get sick and are unable to get groceries delivered immediately.
That's just a start haha
If our efforts at distancing and hygiene are effective, and there’s no reason for them not to be, we will be able to go back to work once the curve flattens, with distancing restrictions in place. From what I’ve anecdotally seen on my few trips outside, there’s a very good chance we’ll push back on the virus enough to make this a reality.
Hopefully, everyone will maintain these measures to mitigate the spread of the virus. If the government sees the infection rate rise again, we’ll be shutdown again. Rinse and repeat for 18 months until we get a vaccine.
I hope we can do it right and beat it now. But I just don't see a scenario where it's 100% gone, and then we open up society and have it "stay" gone ya know.
Like even if we get it to 1%, and then open everything up, I bet we see new cases arise then but I don't want to shut down again, I think at that point we just treat the cases.
The only way this will sooner than later is if the whole world bites the billet and shuts down for 3-4 weeks. Nothings open, no travel. As long as we keep on the path we are on, the way things are now will go on for a long time and the cases will continue to rise. At this point just worry about yourself and your family. Stay in as much as possible, don’t visit with anyone outside your immediate circle and practice good hygiene and wait for this to blow over by Xmas.
How will that stop it though? It will reduce the spread, for sure. But it’s not feasible to have every single person sitting in their house for 4 weeks. First wave of stay at home is for non essential services. The list of essential services is huge. So those people are out and about.
It’s impossible to have a 100% stay at home order. I just don’t see the virus not spreading once your 3-4 week window expires. It will.
It’s less about that, and only about slowing down the spread in order to let hospitals deal with it, and researches have time to figure out the treatments. And to then ensure they are safe.
In some places (ontario) the list of essential services is so broad that 90% of all jobs fall under that umbrella.
I mean....that’s a bit of a stretch isn’t it? Do you have actual numbers from anywhere?
I'm on this train of thought. Yes we can keep protecting hospitals, but perhaps the healthy demographic can return to work, and if/when they inevitable get the flu, they fight it at home.
I want to protect those at risk, but I also am very young and healthy and would not burden the hospitals if I were to catch it.
and would not burden the hospitals if I were to catch it.
This statement is likely true, but not a statement of fact as you have implied
I agree, it's not true enough to be applied to everyone 18-30 but pretty close. Like the strong can deal with this at home, and we still keep the hospitals for the most vulnerable?...just like the regular flu.
The only way this will sooner than later is if the whole world bites the billet and shuts down for 3-4 weeks. Nothings open, no travel
While I agree with this, it looks like that ship has sailed and we might just have to accept that this got out, and we're gonna get the flu.
Would that be the worst? maybe just "bite" a different bullet, return to work, and deal with the sickness with some RNR and regular rest.
Meanwhile the increased amount of hospital visits because of Covid will hugely overload the system that is running at 96-98% capacity on a normal day. So now doctors and nursing staff have to decide who needs the bed more. Who needs our attention more, who should we all decide will die because they are too far gone, or they just don’t have the resources to treat them.
Oh you got in a car crash on your way home from work and need an ambulance and a bed in ICU? That won’t happen. Sorry. ICU is full.
Then the doctors and nurses start to die because of the lack of ready and stress compounds into a weaker immune system, and the massive exposure to the Covid 19 virus again and again breaks down formally strong and healthy people.
That’s a terrible idea.
There's no magic single solution. It's a combination of many things:
Delay the the rise of the curve to give pur healthcare system time to prepare more equipment and training, while learning how to best treat it
Flatten the peak of the curve to not overwhelm the hospitals
Some herd immunity will make subsequent waves less pronounced
Keep the highest risk populations isolated until a vaccine is available
In 1-1.5 years, a vaccine will be available for these highest risk populations
In 2-3 years, everyone will have the vaccine
Nobody know exactly what % of the population will catch this over the next 2-3 years. I don't think it's as simple as saying everyone is going to get it, therefore everyone needs to improve their health. We very well could get away with most people not catching it, or maybe a big chunk of the population will catch it. Nobody knows. It really depends on how diligent everyone remains to practice good hygiene once measures are slowly lifted.
There's still hope. The government seems to understand how paramount having test kits is. If we can manufacture enough test kits (increase the analysis capacity, shorten analysis time, use diverse test methods) even if we don't catch them all in this wave, we maybe able to in subsequent waves.
Cases are still going to rise and could for a while. We just need to stick to the plan and just stay home. It will work. Eventually we will get the numbers down and life will continue. We will figure out a super and efficient test and we will continue to test and quarantine anyone that tests positive. Then we get the vaccine. Then we protest China
You're beginning to wonder? That is exactly what the experts have been saying, that we cannot stop it. We will all eventually be exposed to it and either reemerge with immunity, die, or be vaccinated by then. The efforts now ("flattening the curve") is to allow our health care system to manage the cases by spreading them out.
We're trying to flatten the curve, we can't 'stop it'.
Wash you hands and don't touch your face, we'll all get through this together.