Luckily Bitcoin won't go above 21 Million Coins
Posted Feb 21, 2020, 12:24 PM UTC
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I was an exploration geologist and understand the formation of gold deposits. This article is a pure madness. I don't even know where to start ... Ignore it. Looks like someone is trying to sell the real property in India for a lot of money.
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Forget what the name of this phenomenon is called, but basically it goes like this. A physicist opens up the newspaper and reads an article about physics. He is disgusted to find that it is 100% wrong and completely misunderstands basic fundamentals. Like it makes no sense and is a joke to anyone who knows anything about physics. Yet, he turns the page, reads an article about politics, and takes it at face value without questioning it. The implication being that most news and articles are written by people who have absolutely no fucking clue what they are talking about, and yet we blindly believe it.
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That's called the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.
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"they discovered two gold mines" LOL
You are correct. Deposits are slowly discovered, expanded and classified as economically viable reserves over a period of years. Most mines are continuously exploring and expanding their reserves as the mine grows, the process almost never ends.
Also finding a gold deposit doesn't mean much. What is the average grade? What are the costs per ounce? This defines how much output the mine can realistically attain
Source: Worked for a gold miner for a while
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Found the gold bag holder.
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in 2026 Psyche will start reporting back to NASA the expected reality that there will be a hyper-inflationary spike in the volume of gold being mined in the future
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/psyche/
Since psyche 16 asteroid represents an example of an asteroid that is a core of an early planet thus metallic and estimated to contain around $700 quintillion dollars of precious metals (gold, platinum, etc..) or 93 billion dollars of precious metals per person on a single asteroid alone.
While mining will not start immediately, the markets will start pricing in the expectation of mining and nation states will start to slowly sell their gold reserves if they are wise enough flooding the market with cheap gold. Nation states will need an alternative asset to hedge against.
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yea... actual astroid mining that brings back consequential amounts of material will not happen for another couple decades. so while I am long bitocin, this is a horrible reason to be short gold
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I am not suggesting shorting gold and think gold will likely still be a good store of value despite not appreciating against fiat as well as in the past which is why I said this -
While mining will not start immediately, the markets will start pricing in the expectation of mining and nation states will start to slowly sell their gold reserves if they are wise enough flooding the market with cheap gold. Nation states will need an alternative asset to hedge against.
I think 20-30 years is a fair expectation on asteroid mining(keep in mind that mining will heavily be subsidized by research and military budgets) , but banks and nation states will slowly start offloading their gold way before that ... because they have no choice as we have seen when countries used silver instead of gold as their reserve asset. Even without asteroid mining the fact that Bitcoin is more scarce than gold on earth will force this transition
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93 billion dollars of precious metals per person on a single asteroid alone.
You know what? Fuck Bitcoin and capitalism. Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism, here we come!!!!!!!!
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Why did Mexico build 50 new water parks with their space bucks?! Come on guys you're gonna get us all caught.
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This is the most pointed comment I've seen yet w.r.t. future supply-spikes of gold - fascinating stuff.
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!lntip 1000
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Thank you!
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Gold lambo here I come
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I'm not really buying the space mining inflation hypothesis. The very exact hypothesis was in the late 1800's / early 1900's when gold was started to be mined by machinery and not by handforce. It caused a very shortly-lived surge in gold mining, after which gold supply inflation normalized back to an average of 2 % per year. Excepting the same to happen with space mining.
I like to compare the space mining hypothesis to Moore's Law, which many people have claimed to have died for decades, but it is still alive and well and has actually accelerated post-2015. There's no reason to expect Moore's Law to die for a very long time, as long as no global catastrophe happens. Same with gold mining; space mining won't cause a hyperinflation with gold; space mining is rather a natural step in the progress of mankind.
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So you're saying going back onto the gold standard is not a good idea? Edit: /s
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I believe there are some major tradeoffs with gold standard and believe the bitcoin standard would be superior
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How do they get the ore back to the earth without ... breaking cities?
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So let me get this straight - In the dawn of the age of cloud computing, crypto-currency, and digital assets, nation states, private corporations and banks will spend billions on rocket missions to asteroids to capture metals and bring them back to earth?
I’m gonna skip gold and go buy some pot stocks, cause you must be burning through that good good shit my dude.
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Why do you think nasa is prioritizing this expedition before other asteroids? Are you aware of the new changes made under Obama signed into law specifically to allow and encourage asteroid mining? Also are you aware that these arent only going to be mining operations but military and research outposts?
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Hey, let them go nuts. I hope someone corners the asteroid market. But the economics of extraction from the earth’s crust is already tricky, let alone the energy and labor costs to ferry metal from asteroids to earth....maybe if gold hit 500k per ounce? But likely other commodities (like oil and fuels) would also increase as well. Tough market, I don’t see it happening realistically.
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Earth isn't the only planet needing to use these resources. Space will, the moon and mars .It is much cheaper to mine these metals (mostly iron and nickel ) in space for stations that need them in space than send these resources from earth. There is going to be an arms race in space to control the future , and why the usa created "space force". Superpowers that ignore space and mining will be doomed to be controlled by others
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We spent a significant amount of our GDP in the US touching the moon and going back for a decade, don’t underestimate the amount of money spent for doing stupid shit in my country
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Don't tell Peter Schiff.
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I don't believe in Peter Schiff.
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Say his name 3 times and see what happens. Then try it in front of a mirror.
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Peter Schiff believes in you....
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It would take years of exploration, exploitation and huge capital investment to bring that gold to Market it's not something that's going to affect the price of gold beyond something reactionary.
Until Bitcoin actually hits the cap of 21 million theres no practical difference.
Also gold at all time high just throwing that out there.
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Gold may be at an all-time high, but that has to do with USD (and other fiats) being at an all-time low. Don’t confuse VALUE and PRICE.
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That's why gold is rising - it is undervalued. USD has been strengthening with gold.
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Exactly. People keep calling Bitcoin deflationary as if new Bitcoin are not being printed every day every hour every 10 minutes. If you plan on living to the year 2140 then yes you are correct mining will eventually stop but as of the here and now both Bitcoin and gold have some inflation. And ironically atm bitcoin's inflation is double that of the reported annual inflation target of many first-world countries. Only with the having will it finally dip below that target.
All that being said in another 4 years bitcoin's inflation rate will be incredibly attractive. The predictability and direction of inflation ie where we are going is of course amazing with Bitcoin.
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Mining won't stop when the last Bitcoin has been mined
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Well by definition mining will stop. Transaction fees will be collected from the sender of course. But that is currently the case in pretty much all cryptos and fiat currencies, and does not constitute inflation.
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You would be correct in suggesting that adding more Bitcoin to the supply has an inflationary impact. However, Bitcoin has been in an overall DEFLATIONARY mode. Why? Because more and more people are transferring their VALUE from fiat to Bitcoin. We know that we are in an overall deflationary mode because we have to transfer less Bitcoin today to pay for a pizza (for example) than when Bitcoin was first introduced. And as adoption accelerates, deflationary pressure will grow exponentially until maturity is reached.
I think it is vitally important that we begin adjust our minds to the particular issues of deflationary currencies.
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That is a good point. Mainstream adoption has yet to occur and when it does that will outweigh the inflationary effect of printing by orders of magnitude in the short and medium-term.
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Um, they're gonna do it. The supply of mined gold has been increasing at an average of 1.5% per year for the last 70 years. So that's about how much it (and all the other mining operations) will affect The supply of gold. The price will eventually reflect the supply.
Bitcoin will have a lower inflation rate than gold in 5 years.
Gold and silver are not at all at all time highs. They are at all time lows after adjusting for inflation: https://goldsilver.com/blog/its-official-gold-silver-prices-now-at-inflation-adjusted-50-year-lows/
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ELI5: If the goal is to find a safe haven to eliminate or reduce financial exposure or losses over time, i'm not sure why land, not real estate, but actual acreage is not more popular. If the population is net increasing 75M people per year, would arableland hold as much immutable value as bitcoin. The only upside in my opinion is that bitcoin is fractional, readily transferable, not subject to local, state and federal government regulation, taxed on transfer...... ok... don't worry i answered my own question.
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Keep in mind also that land is in competition with anything else that can substitute for it. Owning 100 acres of apartments can be competed with by a single 100 story skyscraper.
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Few things most people miss:
- Gold ore != gold sold per oz in stores
- Just because there is gold underground doesn't mean it is immediate profit. It depends how deep it lies in, what kind of rock formation surrounds it ... essentially how expensive it would be to mine, process and cast the gold. If the total cost is `x` per oz of gold while `y` is the gold priced in markets, you only have `x-y` as the "profit". Note that x could be less than y, in which case most operations stop and they don't mine the gold until either cost lowers down or price of gold catches up
- There is also (minute amount but still important) gold being lost forever everyday. Especially the ones used in electronics are mostly never going to be repurposed and will rot somewhere. Think of them like forever lost bitcoins addresses.
- Most countries push these kinds of news as narrative to strengthen the existing government's influence, suggesting better days are coming. This usually happens when an election is nearby, but not always have to be the case.
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Sounds like they may need some good old fashioned "freedom".
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I suspect there is weapons of mass destruction in those mountains!
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Unfortunately, the Indians can probably defend themselves better than Afghanistan or Iraq.
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Apparently, 2/3 of the world's mined gold was mined since 1950. About 130,000-170,000 tonnes has been mined by most estimates. So this would be an inflation rate of about 1.5% per year over the last 70 years. Still under bitcoin's inflation rate post-halving (1.8%), but not for long. In two halvings, bitcoin will beat gold on stock to flow.
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Despite that Gold is at a 7 year high up +1.4% today.
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Wrong: https://goldsilver.com/blog/its-official-gold-silver-prices-now-at-inflation-adjusted-50-year-lows/
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Not wrong. With inflation Gold is still at a 7 year high.
The article you posted is from 2018 when gold was at $1200.
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Yes, gold's gone up 30% in the last 2 years. However, that still doesn't come anywhere close to an all time high. Its current inflation adjusted price is around $1730 (2018 dollars), which isn't even as high as it was in 2012, and certainly not anywhere near the $12,500 it was in the early 80s (over 5 times as high). Its very clear that gold has been on a long term downtrend. But maybe its bottomed, maybe its time to buy. But iono, when it costs 1%/year to store it, 1.5% more is mined each year, and its hard to transfer or transact, seems like a tough sell.
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That's why nobody owns it anymore. Rise of Bitcoin and peak central banking will turn focus back to sound money. Gold will be tokenised and useful again in the 21st century. We might have seen a once in a lifetime bottom in value of gold.
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Somebody post this in r/gold. They are so salty over there
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I bet it wont bring the price down. Why? Humans are the middle men.
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It's collateral for fiat.
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Yes but why does the camera have astigmatism?
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yal think this is enough to make the price of gold drop?
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everybody knows mining addy ore is more than mining gold ore
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Gold is not a common metal. What would you compare it with? Bu what measure is it “fairly common?”
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bitcoin is infinitely divisible, so who gives a fuck about the total amount of bitcoin
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Incorrect; the smallest amount is a satoshi.
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Now somebody go ahead and correct me if I'm wrong, but the article seems to be confusing gold with gold ore. 3350 tonnes of gold ore will not produce 3350 tonnes of gold. But they are comparing the gold ore with the gold reserves.
You are right to compare the gold ore and gold reserve. But we can expect to see the supply of Gold increasing yet again once the mining starts.
You still have to mine it though. Price is defined mostly by cost of mining correct?
No. Price is "what people will pay" vs "what people will accept".
Nothing more. Nothing less.
If you spend $500 / ounce mining and refining gold, but no one will pay more than $450, then...
.. too bad.
No. If the price is $450/oz and the production cost is $500/oz, then you don't mine it.
mining and refinement?
Production.
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Price is defined by demand compared to supply
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The Earth is losing helium. And yes the price of it is increasing.
That's why I'm hoarding helium. Eventually I'll have enough to go to the moon.
it can be generated via nuclear fusion then your screwed
Yeah, nice try India. Gold is on new ATHs in many currencies, even the Euro.
that is the expected gold from the ore. I know the wording seems confusing.
moght as-well be fud since gold is on rose doe to fiat failure