[OC] NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking all the teams in the 15-19 range
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
We already went through Tier 5 and Tier 6 and now we'll take one step up.
######TIER 4: CUSTARD / aka the SWEET FILLING
In the middle of her trifle, Rachel had some homemade custard. This middle pack of teams may resemble custard in a few ways. They're the middle class of the league, filling out the room in between the contenders and pretenders. But more than that, the NBA's new play-in system has made it kind of fun to be in the 7-8-9-10 range these days.
(19) TORONTO RAPTORS
last year: Nothing lasts forever. The Raptors had won 48+ games for seven seasons in a row (highlighted by the championship in 2018-19) but woke up to a nightmare in 2020-21. They finished an abysmal 27-45, although much of that fell on bad fortune. They had a strange year, getting evicted down to Tampa, and losing several close games. Their advanced stats suggest a team that was closer to .500 than their actual record.
losses: After 9 years with the franchise, Kyle Lowry is finally moving on. He's in decline now at age 34, but he still averaged 17-7 last season. Starting center Aron Baynes is also gone, with far less fanfare. He won LVP honors this past season, although every fan should still wish him well as he struggles with a neck injury.
gains: As a benefit of their disaster season, the Raptors had their highest pick in years and selected SF Scottie Barnes (Florida State.) Barnes is a below-average shooter, but he's a good passer and defender and may be able to help the rotation sooner than later. The team also acquired Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa in the Lowry transaction, although Dragic may not last long with the team.
predicted record: Before we project a record for the Raptors in 2021-22, we have to balance out their terrible season. If we normalize for injuries and bad luck, .500 is more of a reasonable starting point. I'd also expect the defense to vault back into the top 10 (after falling to 15th) given the length of their frontcourt. Expecting them to get into the top half on offense may be harder, especially if they funnel big minutes to Scottie Barnes and second-year PG Malachi Flynn. Both have bright futures, but they're still young players who will have inconsistency. Overall, I'm going to pencil them in for an underwhelming 40-42 for that reason. I'm also doing that with the presumption that Goran Dragic doesn't play for the team; if he does, then you can bump that up. Still, we've passed the days when we can automatically write "Toronto" into the playoffs, especially with the middle of the East getting stronger.
(18) INDIANA PACERS
last year: Despite solid results from coach Nate McMillan, the Pacers brought in rookie coach Nate Bjorkgren to help modernize their offense (which had ranked 30th in FTA and 3PA). Bjorkgren helped boost those offensive numbers some, but lost the locker room and lost his job. All told, the team finished 34-38 with middling advanced stats (17th in SRS, 14th in offense, 13th in defense.)
losses: For a team that has no problem shaking up the coaching staff, the front office appears pretty stubborn about hanging on to the roster. They did trade Victor Oladipo in midseason (for Caris LeVert) but have been awfully quiet this offseason. Doug McDermott and Aaron Holiday are their only departing rotational players, with McDermott a bigger loss of the two.
gains: New coach Rick Carlisle will go with a defense-for-offense substitution, bringing in veteran Torrey Craig to fill McDermott's spot as the backup SF-PF. R1 pick Chris Duarte should contribute some on both ends as a 3 and D prospect. That said, the biggest difference in the team may be a matter of health. T.J. Warren only played 4 games last year, and Caris LeVert and Myles Turner missed serious time as well.
projected record: There's enough raw talent here to get the team back into the 5-6 range in the East (especially with Carlisle at the helm), but some doubts remain. In fact, the reason that I'm going with a lukewarm 41-41 is because I'm not convinced about the durability of the players. If you told me their starters all played 80 games, this could be a 45+ win team. However, many of them (Brogdon, LeVert, Warren, Turner) have struggled with injuries in the past.
(17) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
last year: Coach Taylor Jenkins and the young Grizzlies continued their growth, going from 34-39 up to 38-34 last year despite missing Jaren Jackson Jr. for the majority of the year. Their advanced stats were mostly mid pack, but their defense ranked 6th overall. The team made the playoffs, but lost 4-1 to Utah in round one.
losses: The Grizzlies surprisingly traded away starter Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 PPG, 12.5 RPG) for Steven Adams, although that may have less to do with Valanciunas and more about other factors. The staff may be making some more room for Jaren Jackson Jr. as a "5" man or for sophomore Xavier Tillman to play a stretch big role. SG Grayson Allen has also been traded away. And while Allen may still best known for his college career, he contributed quite a bit last season, starting 38/50 games. Justise Winslow will also leave, with not much contribution to his name.
gains: In that Valanciunas trade, Memphis moved up to the # 10 pick. However, their selection (Ziaire Williams from Stanford) is more of a project than an immediate contributor. Instead, the difference in the minutes distribution will likely be a "promotion" to younger players like Tillman and Desmond Bane.
predicted record: On face value, the Memphis Grizzlies are a pretty good team. Whether they can elevate from there may really come down to Jaren Jackson Jr. as a wild card. People loved him as a rookie, but he's been injured and a little lost since then. He can shoot (which he proved in 2019-20) but his defensive "fit" is still in doubt. In theory, he should be a center, but he doesn't rebound well and he fouls too often to play 30+ minutes a night. If he can figure it all out, he can unlock a whole new level for the Grizzlies team. Until we see it in action, I'm going to have to pencil them in for a modest 41-41 record given the tough Western Conference.
(16) CHICAGO BULLS
last year: Chicago finished below .500 for the fourth year in a row, finishing 31-41 in Billy Donovan's first year on the job. There were some signs of progress though, as their offense climbed from 27th in the league to 19th. Their point differential (-0.9) was also not as bad as their record indicates.
losses: The Bulls lost a slew of rotational players from last year, including Garrett Temple, Daniel Theis, Thaddeus Young, and Tomas Satoransky. Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. also left last midseason. None of those names may sound like big deals, but they all averaged over 20 minutes for the team last year. Lauri Markkanen may join them on the bus out of town.
gains: We all thought the Bulls made their big move in midseason by acquiring Nikola Vucevic, but it turns out that they were just getting started. They went on a spending spree this offseason and will be paying over $57M combined to SF DeMar DeRozan, PG Lonzo Ball, and PG Alex Caruso. It's an interesting mix of old and young, as DeRozan is 32 and Ball is 23. Still, it suggests the Bulls are going to try and make a playoff push as soon as possible.
predicted record: Adding veterans (even young vets like Ball and Caruso) to the backcourt may cloud the future of Coby White, but that's not necessarily a bad thing from a "win now" point of view. The Bulls gave White the greenlight as a sophomore and he took full advantage to the tune of 15.1 points per game, but his efficiency was still below-average and his advanced stats were still negative overall (-2.6 BPM.) Lonzo Ball should blend in better and allow his more efficient teammates (Zach LaVine, DeRozan, Vucevic) to shine. We may scoff at DeRozan's brand of basketball, but he was the main engine on a Spurs offense that finished in the top 10 each of the last two years. And it's fair to say Zach LaVine may even have more upside than DeRozan. He averaged 27.4 points on 63% true shooting last year, and looked every bit as good as Devin Booker in the Olympics. With the right team around him, he may take the same type of star leap. I wouldn't count on the Finals, of course, but 42-40 is reasonable given this lineup.
(15) NEW YORK KNICKS
last year: Tom Thibodeau's Knicks had a magical (regular) season, roaring to a 41-31 finish. Thibodeau unlocked Julius Randle's ability as a playmaker, as the big man jumped from 3.1 assist to 6.0 per game and won Most Improved Player in the process. Of course, a lot has been made about the sustainability of their defense. They allowed opponents to shoot 33.7% from 3, the lowest in the league. If you think that's "random" as some analysts do, then their point differential would shrink from +2.3 into the negatives.
losses: The team let starting PG Elfrid Payton go, which Knicks fans should be happy about after Payton cracked our "Least Valuable Player" ballot. The loss of SF Reggie Bullock should hurt more. Bullock was arguably their best three-point shooter, hitting 41.0% on 6.1 attempts per game. Presumably, the team prioritized re-signing their other free agents (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel) more.
gains: The Knicks added two big names via free agency, albeit in very different ways. They paid big money to bring in SF Evan Fournier. Fournier didn't stand out in a short stint in Boston, but he's averaged over 17 PPG and shot over 40% from three over the last two seasons. Soon to be age 29, he's still in his prime. Fournier's former teammate (and new teammate) Kemba Walker is clearly not in his prime anymore, but he represents a good value signing after a buy out with OKC. Walker's taken a step back as a star, but he's still someone who averaged 19 PPG and launched 8.2 threes a game. He can still be a helpful scorer, but his durability is the big question mark these days.
projected record: Count me as a skeptic regarding the Knicks' hot shooting (and their opponents' cold shooting) last season. Their 4-1 loss to Atlanta in the playoffs showed that they may have been typical Thibs overachievers. If they just ran it back, they probably would have regressed and finished around .500. That said, adding Fournier and Walker are a genuine spike for an offense that needs it (after ranking 23rd last year.) Ultimately, their upside may be determined by third-year wing R.J. Barrett. He shot 40% from three, which seems pretty hard to repeat given his prior stats and his mediocre FT%. Still, the kid's 21. If he can continue to improve and become a genuine All-Star, then he's the type of player that can elevate this supporting cast into the top half of the playoff bracket. Realistically, I'll consider this a 43-39 team with the opportunity to keep rising if Barrett can.
Posted Aug 12, 2021, 1:19 PM UTC