NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking all the teams in the 10-14 range
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
We've already gone through Tier 4, Tier 5 and Tier 6 and now we'll keep climbing that ladder.
######TIER 3: THE BEEF: the meaty part of the playoff field
In the middle of her trifle, Rachel accidentally switched to a shepherd's pie and added beef. But that weightiness is fitting for us. This high-middle pack of teams can pack a serious punch and may threaten to win a playoff series.
(14) BOSTON CELTICS
last year: The bloom is officially off the rose. After making the Conference Finals twice in three years, the young Celtics stagnated for the first time. They finished 36-36 and lost in round one. As a result, the team reshuffled their structure -- elevating Brad Stevens to GM and hiring Nets assistant Ime Udoka as the head coach.
losses: PG Kemba Walker never quite worked out in Boston and was shown the door. He's the biggest subtraction, but he's not the only one. The Celtics will also be without Tristan Thompson (who started 43/54 games) and Evan Fournier (who started 10/16 after coming over in midseason.) It's also notable that Daniel Theis had started 37 games prior to his midseason departure last year. All in all, that's a lot of lost starts for the team to figure out.
gains: The Celtics took advantage of a cold market for Dennis Schroder and brought him in on a team friendly deal. Schroder's reputation took a hit this past season, but he still averaged 15.4 points and 5.8 assists. He should be a positive contribution to the backcourt, whether he's starting or coming off the bench. It's hard to tell how much returning big man Al Horford has left to contribute after basically punting 2020-21 away, but he theoretically helps the depth down low. Enes Kanter will do the same, replacing Thompson. Josh Richardson will try to replace Evan Fournier on the wing, although his three-point shooting has been on a downward trend (38% to 36% to 34% to 33% last year.)
projected record: The Celtics may be a forgotten team out East, but they still have the pieces to be a R2 contender. Cornerstones Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a great start, but they'll need some help along the way. The key may be two young players: Aaron Nesmith and "Timelord" Robert Williams. Nesmith is a natural shooter and could be a helpful spacer; ideally, he'd outplay Richardson and grab a hold of 25 minutes a night. It'd be great if Robert Williams could do the same. He's a big time shot blocker with more juice in his legs than Horford. If those two guys can step up, the Celtics may be able to get back into the top half of the playoff bracket. If they can't, then the Celtics may be scraping and clawing in a play-in tournament. 44-38 sounds like a reasonable estimate.
(13) PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
last year: It may feel like a distant memory, but Portland actually had a solid 42-30 record last year and beat out the Lakers for the 6th seed. That goodwill ended quickly ion the playoffs, as the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets brushed them aside 4-2. Ultimately, that familiar formula of all offense (2nd in the league) and no defense (29th) wasn't going to cut it anymore, as Terry Stotts exited in favor of Chauncey Billups.
losses: The Blazers didn't make major moves (yet) but clearly prioritized that awful defense with their roster tweaks. Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony are both gone; while the two weren't core stars, they played the 3rd and 4th minutes on the team last year.
gains: Portland didn't make any major moves, but they did adjust their rotation. Charlotte mainstay Cody Zeller will come in and play the old Kanter/Whiteside role behind Jusuf Nurkic. Wings Tony Snell and Ben McLemore will add some spacing on the perimeter. But more than anything, having C.J. McCollum healthy after missing 30 games last year may be their biggest gain.
projected record: GM Neil Olshey has done a decent job adding a little more length on the perimeter to help the defense, but it's hard to see a MAJOR shift in success here. The Blazers are who they are, for better or worse. That should amount to a 46-36 record and a R1/R2 loss. That's better than most teams will do, but the ultimate question is whether it's good enough for Damian Lillard. If I was Olshey, I'd explore a McCollum trade before blowing it all up. McCollum can shine brightly for another team, but he'll never have enough size/defense to be an ideal pairing with Lillard.
(12) DALLAS MAVERICKS
last year: In case there were any doubts about Luka Doncic's status as one of the best players in the NBA, he went out and proved it again with a top 6 MVP finish. Still, there may have been some frustration that the Mavericks didn't rise even higher. In terms of record (42-30), point differential (+2.2), and SRS power ranking (9th), the team was almost identical to the previous year. As a result, Rick Carlisle will step away and Jason Kidd will step in.
losses: The Mavs called a mulligan on their Seth Curry for Josh Richardson trade, shedding Richardson from the roster. He didn't shoot well (33% from 3) and didn't play as well on defense as expected. Aside from that, almost all of the core remains, including FA Tim Hardaway Jr.
gains: In an attempt to replace Seth Curry's shooting, the team brought in Knicks SF Reggie Bullock. He may be the type of 3+D player that they thought Josh Richardson would be. Bullock shot 41.0% from 3 (on 6.1 attempts) last year, and he's been 39.2% for his career. With Doncic feeding him passes, he could take another leap from there. Backup big Moses Brown will enter a crowded field down low.
projected record: I really like the addition of Reggie Bullock, but it's hard to call that a fundamental shift in the team. As a result, we have to expect them to finish with a similar 47-35 record. In some way, I feel like Mark Cuban knows that. Maybe there's some chance that coach Jason Kidd can improve their defense -- maybe there's some way he can bring out the tiger in Kristaps Porzingis -- maybe he can turn Jalen Brunson into a poor man's Kyle Lowry. But pragmatically, I'd presume that these moves (hiring Kidd, hiring Nike exec Nico Harrison as GM) are more of a ploy to draw in elite free agents in the future. The Mavs may need that next second star to reach their full potential.
(11) ATLANTA HAWKS
last year: After an offseason spending spree, expectations were high for the rising Hawks. It took a while for proper liftoff. Coach Lloyd Pierce stumbled out of the gates to 14-20, but the move to Nate McMillan clicked immediately. The Hawks finished 41-31, and advanced all the way to the Conference Finals. If there's any reason to throw some cold water on the fire, it's that their playoff streak may have had some good fortune. While they beat Philadelphia 4-3, they were actually outscored by 20 points in the series.
losses: Hardly any. Backup PG Kris Dunn is gone, but he barely played due to injuries last year. Similarly, PF Onyeka Okongwu will miss a big chunk of the season, but he also played played due to injuries last year himself. In fact, the biggest story here is the loss that didn't happen as PF John Collins returned to the team in free agency.
gains: The team acquired PG Delon Wright, who should be an excellent addition for the rotation. Wright has the scoring and slashing chops to help a second unit, but he also has enough size to play alongside Trae Young as well. And if the team wasn't talented enough, they found two good prospects in PF Jalen Johnson (Duke) and PG Sharife Cooper (Auburn) who stumbled into their laps in the draft. Johnson in particular may be able to contribute later on this year; he's a big forward with solid passing ability.
projected record: It'd be easy to get carried away with this team and expect them to keep rising and rising and rising. That said, we have to be careful not to jump the gun here. The top of the East is still loaded, and the Hawks may need to prove that they can compete with those elite teams over the long haul. Specifically, we need to see how high McMillan can take this defense (which ranked 21st overall last year.) It's realistic to expect that to climb into the top 15, but it'd be hard for the team to get back to the Conference Finals unless they somehow reach the top 10 there. I don't really see a path forward to do that right now, so I'll go with a good but not great 48-34 record.
(10) MIAMI HEAT
last year: While the Atlanta Hawks hope that their playoff run is a sign of things to come, the Miami Heat are a reminder that the NBA isn't always a clear and easy path up. A year after making the Finals, they disappointed with a 40-32 record and got swept/curb-stomped by Milwaukee in round one. Their offense (ranked 18th overall) may have doomed their chances of rising higher than their 16th rank in total SRS.
losses: The backcourt combination of Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn are both gone. Both of them are solid scorers, but struggled with injuries last year (playing 50 and 56 games, respectively.) Oldies Trevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala won't be back either. At their age -- both past 35 -- that's probably the right decision for a team that's looking for more juice on offense.
gains: To add that juice, the Heat will turn to another cagey vet in Kyle Lowry (age 35). At his age, Lowry's durability is the biggest question mark. When he plays, he can still fill up the stat sheet (17.2 points, 7.3 assists) and still space the court (39.6% from 3 last year.) For a team centered on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, that three-point shooting is critical. The team also added a 36 year old in P.J. Tucker, whom they hope can fill the shoes of the stretch 4 / slugger that Jae Crowder did so well on their Finals run. FA add Markieff Morris may be asked to do the same, although he plays older than his listed age at 31.
projected record: Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, Bam Adebayo... There's no doubt that this will be one of the toughest teams in the league and one of the best defenses to boot. It's fair to wonder about how much better they are than last year, though. Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn are pretty good players, so it's not like we're starting from scratch at the PG position. I'd also question whether their new additions are fit for the long haul (82 games and a playoff run.) If injuries strike, their depth will be tested. I like the high-end upside and playoff experience here, but the regular season may be a battle. I'm going with a 47-35 record overall (worse than Atlanta) but a slightly better chance to make noise in the playoffs and thus a slightly higher spot on the list. But overall, I think Atlanta and Miami are R2 teams more than conference finalists this time around.
Posted Aug 13, 2021, 9:44 PM UTC · edited