UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data | UK | News
express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-p...Posted Dec 10, 2021, 9:44 AM UTC
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express.co.uk
Wow..really...you don't say...how compleatly unexpected...well I for one am thoroughly suprised...if only people had said something.
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pROjecT FEaR!!!
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Project here.
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The 'data' is from 2011. Quite prescient of you if you were saying that then.
What the data, cherry picked from some unlinked source, is saying is that the UK had been underperforming while in the EU...
All in all, an utterly shite article. The Express should not be an acceptable source for this sub.
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and this became even more pronounced between 2019 and 2021.
So, right about the time we started dicking around with the hard Brexit withdrawal deal and then entered it into force?
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What has happened to the express?!!! Are they ill?
I do love the jutzpah or complaining that the thing everyone said would happen as a result of the policy you have been gung-ho for is actually happening.
I guess we just need a harder Brexit. This one clearly isn't a 'true' Brexit....
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Yes, what has happened to the Daily Excess?
I am disappointed. I expected "Britain surges forward with 0.1% growth". Or something.
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SURGES
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You're right. I missed the capitals. And the "!" at the end.
My Daily Express headline-writing bot must have a bug.
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LIB DEM
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10% GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!*
*per century
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COVID, they lost their sense of smell and now can't ferret out the bullshit to publish as easily as before.
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"We wuz hacked" in three, two, one...
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We must obtain pure Brexit.
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As usual Reality is proving to be the Remoaner traitor we always suspected it of being. Time to abolish it.
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I think it was abolished years ago.
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Abolish reality???
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Vote Leave and Abolish Reality! It's the Will Of The People!!!
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The Express eh!
Took you this long to figure it out?
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The Express was bought by the Mirror owners some time ago. There has been a noticeable shift in its stance.
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I can't explain this article granted, but the Express have been owned by Reach for sometime and that doesn't affect their editorial stance. Express is still a right leaning paper with an older audience and the Mirror is still a paper for Labour supporters and the traditional working class. The owners will always keep that stance as it allows them to sell two daily papers to two different demographics.
Express is still overwhelmingly a right leaning paper that usually remains eurosceptic.
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If the Express is saying this it must be so much nore worse than they are admitting
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Express speak for we needed an even harder Brexit and clearly should have nuked France.
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10 TRILLION pound BREXIT boost for UK glove exporters as radioactive fallout makes EU members grow extra digits. BRUSSELS to collapse in WEEKS
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Extremely bizarre the express is releasing a bunch of a anti truss articles all of a sudden after lavishing praise on her for months now there's a leadership contest in the air.....really strange.
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bUt It'S cOvId
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To be fair, it still could be, as we handled that so badly as well that is still this government's fault!
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Says.... The express. Eh.?
Did we not brexit hard enough?
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No shit. Worth the blue passports though right?
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A vast chasm opened after 2011 when the EU started growing at a much more exponential rate
What is growing at a much more exponential rate? Normally this would sound like GDP, but that's not the case.
GDP growth:
2011: EU = 1.873%, UK = 1.276%
2012: EU = -0.72%, UK = 1.43%
2013 EU = -0.03%, UK = 2.186%
Data from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU-GB&start=2011
Etc, you get the idea. So what is this "exponential rate of growth" the author is talking about? In fact the EU had negative growth 2012-2013.
In fact from 2011- 2019, the UK grew 17.4% and the EU grew 14.5%, so what is the author on about?
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This is about trade flow not GDP. The figures are from the Bank of England so are quite likely to be reliable.
The point of the article is that Brexit and our pivot to "Global Britain" was supposed to unleash our trading capabilities. So far the data is showing the opposite has happened.
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The point of the article is that Brexit and our pivot to "Global Britain" was supposed to unleash our trading capabilities. So far the data is showing the opposite has happened.
How does it show the opposite, when this is written in the article:
British GDP from trade reached its highest since 2006 in 2019 when it hit around 62 percent.
So before the pandemic hit and after brexit had been voted on, trade as part of GDP was the highest its been since the financial crash.
So that seems to be the direct opposite to what you are saying. If it was as you were suggesting then that figure would have decreased instead of increasing, to the highest since the crash.
So please tell me how the data shows what you are suggesting.
Also if he's trying to suggest it's brexit related, why is he also saying the trend of this 'chasm" started in 2011, when brexit wasn't even close to being a thing. Which clearly therefor suggest its not brexit related if its a trend that started prior to brexit.
Just seems a very shit article to me.
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So before the pandemic hit and after brexit had been voted on, trade as part of GDP was the highest its been since the financial crash.
That would be before we left the SM and CU, but had weakened Sterling.
Now we are outside both and have only weakened Sterling and a thin trade deal.
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Sterling in 2019 was at the same level it was at from 2008to the start of 2014, so that argument doesn't hold water I'm afraid.
That would be before we left the SM and CU
Sadly the only date we have after that is with the pandemic, which is very unreliable when trying to link anything to the cause of brexit. When the pandemic has had a clear and massive global effect.
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The performance of a country is difficult to measure so we often compare it to similar countries. This article argues that compared to our EU peers - the "EU Main Countries", our trade flow is performing worse than expected. Here is the relevant part of the article:
Both suffered losses when the pandemic hit in 2020, but only one has recovered. The UK has not seen its trade bounce back since the official exit date of January 2021.
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However I would argue that said trade flow in the EU increased mainly due to the Target2 system. If you go and look at the target2 balance sheets you will see a massive rise during 2010-11. Which is when the EU trade share of GDP starts to massively increase. Which is basically financing trade with trillions of euros of debt (which never needs paid back and doesn't appear on any countries debt).
If we look at countries not in the EU. Canada = 59.97%, USA = 26.31, Japan = 34.93%, Russia = 28.54%, Aus = 43.98%, etc. We actually have a high rate of gdp based on trade.
That's if you even consider that to be a good thing. What is wrong with more of a countries GDP coming from internally?
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2012: EU = -0.72%, UK = 1.43% 2013 EU = -0.03%, UK = 2.186%
The Article measures the main EU countries e.g. Germany 2011(3,9%), France 2011(2,2%), Italy 2011 (0,7%), Netherlands 2011(1,6%) etc.
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Snapshot:
- An archived version of UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data | UK | News can be found here.
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I saw an article in the Telegraph, which I can't now find saying that UK-US service exports had 'overtaken' UK-EU exports. Is there truth in that, is it a good thing?
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Without reading it I couldn’t say but no it’s unlikely to be a good thing:
If I sell 20 apples to the EU and 10 apples to the US pre brexit and post brexit I’m selling 12 apples to the EU and 13 apples to the US then it’s true that trade to the US has overtaken trade to the EU but my overall exports are down 17%.
(I’m not saying this is what’s happened but it’s unlikely that the US service exports have picked up all the slack lost from the EU)
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Yes, I wondered if it was this, or a genuine good thing. Without access to the Telegraph i couldn't see. I know they are massively pro brexit and might not always give an honest view, but I like to keep an open mind about these things.
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No it's project fear! No wait it's alie EU needs us more than we need them! Just wait, they will be coming soon, just watch any minute now... /S
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Probably because half that time the world has been locked down
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Ah. So it's still denial for you? You'll come around eventually.
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Yeah, but during that very same time, EU pulled through while the UK didn't. Curious.
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According to Jwilliamson in the comments,
The vast Hibernian conspiracy strikes again
My favourite comment.
I'm struggling to process "unpatriotic data".
It's printed in black font, rather than red, white and blue
Don't give them any ideas. They'll start to print anything negative in white ink
Some people call it "reality".
Reality has a well known remain bias.
Surely that comment was a joke?
Poe's law
I know someone who used to work in the civil service. I remember he once told me an excellent quote from the lead data scientist
"if you interrogate the data long enough it WILL confess"
*torture, not interrogate
That's how my professor told it
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r/theirishquestion
Also just wanted to add there is a guy on Twitter called @winding_sios who does this thing where he trawls the express comments sections for the most ignorant, amusing and xenophobic comments on the Irish related stories and posts them
I find it hilarious
He might need some reeducation to believe stronger in the many and vast benefits of our Glorious Brexit. He’s clearly brainwashed.
Druids did it is my new excuse for anyrhing.
(though... Isn't that Welsh? Ireland didn't have a druidic class no?)
Didn't they spec into rangers and oath of the ancient paladins mainly?