Source
r/bayarea•
PlanetTesla

Unpopular Opinion: It's good people are leaving the California, especially the Bay Area

I can live without my home increasing $200k a year, if I sell and move to another part of the Bay, or California for that matter, everything is going up so it's not like I'm going to pocket a lot of profit.

I'm tired of trying to find parking in hiking areas and giving up and going home, fighting through the trafic on the way to work, or having to reserve a campsite within 50 miles of my home 6 months in advance. So, if people want to leave, fantastic. We'll be fine.

Posted Apr 11, 2022, 12:05 AM UTC

41123
entity330•

Except the people who are leaving are daycares, caregivers, teachers, etc. It's all fine until you realize that the infrastructure around you is becoming unsustainable.

124
AlfalfaConstant431•

You are witnessing the beginnings of a market correction. It's a bit like watching a glacier fragmenting and collapsing into the sea. End result should either be higher pay or lower cost of living.

6
BriefMention•

Just look at Lake Tahoe. That is where the Bay Area is headed.

6
ChristineG0135•

Then they increase the salary and a bunch of those workers would come back, or do a long commute

-10
KagakuNinja•

Workers are already doing long commutes. People are riding BART in from places like Pittsburg. This works for some jobs, but not others.

17
jonfe_darontos•

I recall a story about a SFPD cop not caring about a situation because, "[He lives] in Hercules". That's a 45-60m commute depending on time of day. For a police officer. The guy who keeps you safe* from the criminals. Stressed out about his morning commute, and dreading having to make it back home at the end of day.

2
[deleted]•

[deleted]

98
WorkerMotor9174•

Housing costs are high because nothings on the market. Half the bay area could move out and they'd still probably be higher than they would if we had any inventory. And we have no inventory mostly because none has been built. Apartment buildings are basically illegal in SF now and have been since the 70s.

38
HelplessCorgis•

"apartment buildings are basically illegal in SF now and have been since the 70s." Bruh, what?

1†
Puggravy•

Yep it's illegal to build housing in most of the Bay Area due to zoning, everywhere in pink on this map is where it is illegal to build apartments.

17
[deleted]•

[deleted]

11
Zebiusu•

Wow, I hate it

6
HelplessCorgis•

A.) that doesn't explain the very alarming and untrue statement that any new apartments are illegal.

B. ) Several thousand apartment units were built in the last 5 years in San Francisco. It's certainly not "basically illegal"... Just prohibitively expensive due to material and labor costs, and it's mired in bureaucracy. In fact, that map is totally outdated because...

C. ) Gavin Newsom signed legislation to eliminate single family housing zoning in California effective Jan. 2022, allowing up to 4 units to be built on single family lots. Since loosening zoning rules, not a lot has changed in the Bay Area... Many cities have reported zero applications to split single family lots...

-1†
Beautiful_Pepper415•

It's basically illegal to build. Huge reason why prices are nuts

1
sugarwax1•

Don't bother. There's a cult who just repeat this nonsense who clearly can't look up from their phones and see apartments built after the 70's within a quarter mile in cities. Someone showed them a meme map with a headline telling them it's "illegal".

They shill so hard for multifamily housing, they will swear no systematic oppression ever occurred in apartments, and somehow they don't know the Bay is full of multifamily housing even in residential areas, that did not make shit cheaper or more equitable. But they can't admit any of this. It's sad.

-3
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
m3ngnificient•

Also, there are people moving here. So even if people move out, I doubt it's going to make a huge difference at this rate since others are filling those spots

5
sweetypantz•

I don’t think it’s how many people leaving, but who is leaving and what jobs are harder to fill. Especially coming up. From what I understand.

4
jszly•

Yes and it doesn’t matter if 200k people leave if 205k people move in

3
greyk47•

Also to that point, I doubt enough people are leaving to really make a difference in OP's parking problem either

1
uselessadjective•

True, Back in 2010 my gf and I used to go on trips. We had usual traffic. I used to complain sometimes though.

But now it is just insane. We are married and now she is afraid to drive. You lose confidence because once you are on fhe road ot becomes like a war zone where u have to dodge cars. F**K

If all people are leaving bay area then how come traffic keeps on increasing.

This is stupid to even imagine that people are moving out.

All I see is the game "Save your car and reach destination alive" and the game is getting tougher day by day!

1†
AlfalfaConstant431•

If you leave the Bay Area but still work in the Bay Area, you commute to work - don't you? There's your traffic.

2
throwaway12222018•

It is putting a dent in the economy. Have you seen California's population graph? California is actually losing a significant chunk of people, enough so to alter the slope of the graph significantly.

-14
Miacali•

CA has massive surpluses last year and the economy is doing well - people leaving tend to be poorer and thus aren’t really doing much to dent the economy.

9
shinestory•

Define poor? What salary range for a family of 4?

-2
Excellent-Skill-8316•

I always hear this but all the people I know who’ve left have been upper middle class or younger professionals.

-2
throwaway12222018•

Could be a sampling bias.

5
Waste_Quail_4002•

It is usually the wrong people leaving.

Those with families, those doing much needed "service" jobs, those who have lived in this culture for a long time. To be replaced with short term residents, who don't plan to keep roots here.

Nothing against new people coming. I was not born here either. However rapid replacement to make the entire Bay Area into a "residence community" is probably not the best way to go.

66
[deleted]•

[deleted]

22
raymonst•

Prop 13 is cancer and I hate that it's untouchable in California politics

8
shinestory•

Prop 13 wont revise for businesses because the homeowners think that once it goes away for businesses, its matter of time it will go for then too. Thats why they keep voting it all in

7
Zebiusu•

Aren't there more people who don't own homes here? Prop 13 is like the most regressive tax I've ever seen. No tax for old and rich homeowners but if you're a first time owner you pay 22x the rate of those people. Dog shit system.

9
shinestory•

Everyone should be taxed based on their property value at current time. Those who cannot afford it , will buy the smaller home vs those who can will buy the bigger home. It will also make the older generation be more responsible for their retirement rather than just relying on their cash cow.

3
sugarwax1•

Isn't that the idea?

Also people like seeing longtime businesses survive in communities, and don't want to see them taxed out.

0
Waste_Quail_4002•

"...and tell beach house folks who want to keep their views of the ocean to go suck it."

Would make sense to leave one row of single, and one row of double story beach houses, and adjusting their tax rates to pay for the view.

2†
ChristineG0135•

Those that live in those houses are also the one who write the tax laws. Good luck asking them to increase tax on themselves.

6
sugarwax1•

That didn't work in San Jose.

Also raising property taxes on small businesses is still a bad idea. We need more small businesses that want the burden of retail frontage, and they are who pay reassessments directly.

0
botpa-94027•

You can't do that. The entitlements that your government has decided they need to hand out depends on the group that creates economic value. The state nor the region can keep the entitlements and lose the economic value creators. Half of all tax income comes from the group making over $500k per year or more. 70% from those who make $200k and up.

You can lose economic value creators if you decide which entitlements you no longer need or want. But that is a trade-off I rarely hear people openly consider. You can't forcibly relocate tech to the boonies (let's say Modesto). Value creators have choices and they can choose to not go there, and in a war for talent those who offer location and salary wins - a state policy can't change that they will just go somewhere else and now your economy is in the tank.

All of this is from the state legislature analyst office (eg not my data).

-1
GhostOfPaulVolcker•

Lol when Musk said he’d leave and politicians said “cap where you gonna go” so he left then they started crying saying that he owed California

-1
SeliciousSedicious•

I mean they’re making the proper decision for themselves tbh.

Those jobs don’t pay enough to guarantee a future in CA but can unlock a future in a more MCOL area.

2
HonkingAntelope555•

Judging from the shitty wage scales all those jobs come with it really makes you wonder just how "needed" they are.

-9
Waste_Quail_4002•

Judging from the shitty wage scales all those jobs come with it really makes you wonder just how "needed" they are.

public school teacher = $81k https://www.comparably.com/salaries/salaries-for-public-school-teacher-in-san-francisco-ca

taxi driver = $46k https://www.salary.com/research/salary/benchmark/taxi-driver-salary/san-francisco-ca

cook = $44k https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/OccGuides/detail.aspx?Soccode=352014&Geography=0604000001

I can go on about these "unneeded" jobs.

6
Excellent-Skill-8316•

Also ask anyone trying to do some remodeling at their home how needed construction workers are. The prices I hear are jaw dropping and people are up in arms over the cost to remodel a bathroom. yet people will still say if you can’t afford the area leave.

3
Army_of_bloodSan Anselmo•

OP, you’re not fighting through traffic, you are the traffic.

52
FlowJock•

This.
You are not the center of the world. You are part of it. That includes traffic, over-crowding, parking, and everything that goes along with it.

14
Army_of_bloodSan Anselmo•

OP seems to think he is more entitled to parking for hiking and camping than everyone else. Needs to realize the same reason he is drawn to those things is the same for everyone else. Basically, they’re a Karen.

10
[deleted]•

Haha, what you don’t realize is that it’s not the people driving your home price up that are leaving.

47
GhostOfPaulVolcker•

But on the flip side this drives up the price point for lower paid jobs thus increasing the wages for lower earners

3
[deleted]•

I would like to say that, but what I’ve seen is that the majority of companies paying low wage workers don’t budge after a certain point and either try to automate or end up closing.

There’s also a surprising amount of young people who can survive in the bay still working these jobs because of living with their parents or getting money from them. It doesn’t seem like it would be a large group but truthfully it is.

3
GhostOfPaulVolcker•

Which is good because it drives up the price point naturally for these bay natives

What people fail to account for when advocating for government imposed floors is internal migration - at certain price points Becky from Wyoming will decide to buy a one way ticket to the Bay and take that job from a bay native living with mom and dad

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

20
PlanetTeslaOP•

There isn't an exodous, but I want an exodous.

7†
ChristineG0135•

We are all waiting for an exodus. Lead the way buddy, you go first :))

21
[deleted]•

[deleted]

6
[deleted]•

Lmao, based.

3
sweetypantz•

For example I’m moving back. Not because I want to but because there are jobs. And I have family support.

But I’m not going to be a teacher or doing a service job, that may be harder to fill now. In a few years I can afford to live there and I think most people who decide to move there also think they can afford it. We’re probably going to drive prices up more, sadly :/

2
netllama•

We'll be fine.

And its only about you, who cares about everyone else? Amiright?

12
PlanetTeslaOP•

I am the majority of the Bay Area. Middle class.

I've lived in CA all my life. Saved for years to buy a house, but see the impact of just too many people in one area. There's no reason tech has to be concentrated in one place anymore.

You are free to get up and walk about the country.

-11†
[deleted]•

[deleted]

20
[deleted]•

[deleted]

8
Tossawaysfbay•

Uh, what do you think the forty-niners were?

6
shinestory•

But the tech workers aren’t the problem. Its all the tech companies concentrated in one place! If they go, workers will follow.

Nyc has a financial concentration. BUT they have lots of dense housing in nyc, then lots of dense cities surrounding like queen, brooklyn, hoboken, weehawken, places in ct, and then out in suburbs of CT, LI and NJ too, all serviced by high speed public tranport.

I dont think PT will change that much in CA, nor the density. so the tech companies must disperse to other locations!!

2
Inevitable_Guava9606•

more options to live elsewhere compared to those in the lower/middle class?

Blue collar jobs exist in most places. It wasn't until work from home started to take off that tech and some other white collar jobs started to be open to people outside of major metro areas. So that part might have been the opposite.

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
babybunny1234•

Haha. / laughs in single-family home-zoned suburbs

1
netllama•

You are free to get up and walk about the country.

No one needs your permission to leave. It takes a special type of egotist to think that they need to give others permission to live their lives.

I'm not going anywhere, I love it here.

9
caseyinnyc•

You are free to get up and walk about the country.

So are you! If you are concerned it's too crowded here, why don't you move then. Besides, for every 2 families that move, 3 move here for new jobs so your point is moot anyways. Might as well accept it you're just yelling at the ocean otherwise.

6
shinestory•

You know instead of telling the people to move, CA should vote for tech companies to go elsewhere! This will trickle down to the people. The root of the problem is not the people, but the tech companies being all in one place. Its super weird.

0
redditnathaniel•

Is my little man feeling better now? Let me go get you a juice box as a reward for writing such a brave post

11†
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1†
Raider-Z28•

people are leaving the cities, problem is the vast majority aren;t leaving the state. So they will still be competing with OP for parking at hiking trails and camping sites

4
PlanetTeslaOP•

Read very carefully...I said I want people to leave, not that I think people are leaving. Christ.

-9
[deleted]•

[removed]

-18
gdata•

I believe the migration net is still positive, so you might still have to compete for the charging station at the campsite for your Tesla.

11
Excellent-Skill-8316•

I think the last 2 years actually weren’t because of massively decreased immigration.

3
akirp001•

It hurts the economy in hundreds of ways. You might argue the economy is fine as is, but this just reflects the loss of the seen and the unseen.

And the workers who are leaving will just drive up the prices of all the services that now have labor shortages.

Really, the problem is the Bay Area has and wants a NYC level industry but wishes to preserve an LA style suburb experience.

I sincerely wish we decided to go the route of traditional big cities and build high density housing such that housing becomes affordable.

10
m0llusk•

House prices are screwed up because we stopped building in response to growing demand. Since demand will always fluxuate housing prices will probably stay messed up until we find some political solution to legalize residential construction.

And much of the demand for parks comes from out of state or even international travelers, so good luck with that.

9
shinestory•

Why did building stop? I understand post 2008, for a little bit, but the economy has been booming … for last 10 years. Whats the reason for not building?

1
m0llusk•

There are multiple factors but back in late 1970s and onward in response to development excesses a bunch of rules became common including strict zoning with large areas being limited to single family homes with limited options for expansion an a particular problem is the need for environmental impact hearings which get input from the community and cause delays and expenses. Depending on where you look development has been way down from long term averages since the 1990s.

The whole reason the crash of 2008 happened is because the lack of available units caused price spirals. In most cities the last time Case-Schiller housing price index numbers were near historical averages was in the mid 1990s. For most of the 2000s in most metro areas a majority of buyers already owned a property so the market is actually quite limited and specialized and not really serving the most important sector which is young people forming families.

3
sugarwax1•

The whole reason the crash of 2008 happened is because the lack of available units caused price spirals.

False. Do not spread disinformation.

The YIMBY timeline is hilarious too. We had housing booms in the 80's and 90's.... how did San Jose become the largest city?

0
[deleted]•

Nimby oppose any development, including ones that are conversions from malls to housing.

2
shinestory•

Even sfh?

2
OaklandLandlord•

Yup. They'll oppose new SFH if it's nicer than their house or if it's worse than their house. A lot of places also require huge lots due to the set-back requirements to build anything.

2
Puggravy•

Mainly Single family zoning and CEQA.

2
sugarwax1•

Building hasn't stopped. What's being built has just been to exploit the higher end of the market on the limited infill available, or nonprofit housing meant to exploit the idea they're adding "affordable" housing in response to the luxury housing.

There is a movement to finish off the Urban Renewal of the 60's and recapture the most valuable prime locations, and replace existing communities today, so you have the usual suspects here shilling for deregulation, or various ideas to price people out and let Developers do anything they want. But it's expensive to build when there's a lot of building, the materials and labor goes up, and Developers pick their projects more carefully and look for mass profits instead of trying to do volume sales.

2
peeping_somnambulist•

This person thinks. Over 1000 luxury units have gone up in my area in the last ten years. There is plenty of building, but it’s only on the high end.

1
ChristineG0135•

Lol, a lot of us think the same thing & are waiting for you to leave.

7
Puggravy•

fighting through the trafic on the way to work

You're not fighting through the traffic you ARE the traffic my dude.

Driving can't be all three of:

  • Cheap
  • Convenient
  • Not used by anyone

I can live without my home increasing $200k a year

Yep, everyone can, but the thing is people aren't actually leaving the Bay Area, we are still growing. The issue is do we want to have growth that is reducing our footprint, aka transit walking & biking oriented dense urban apartments, or growth that is climate arson and makes traffic even worse like more suburban sprawl.

6
ChristineG0135•

There won’t be an exodus, only people getting price out & pushed out. This May, when they lift the restriction at the border, there will be a lot more people come in, and a large number of them would go to big urban areas like LA, of SF Bay Area. There will be more crowd, not less.

4
gumol•

This May, when they lift the restriction at the border

what restriction?

2
ChristineG0135•

Title 24, expulsions at the border. Right now, anyone want to come in have to wait in Mexico while they adjudicate their cases. Once it is lifted, they are allowed to enter and live in the US.

-3
VanguardSucks•

Wow so excited for the incoming force-fed "cultural enrichment" !

-1
1544756405•

"Be the change you wish to see in the world."

4
Excellent-Skill-8316•

Personally I would have no problem with a million people leaving and my home losing half its value. Way too many people

3
funnymar•

Nah, it’s my family and friends who have been leaving and it really sucks. People who were actually born or raised here and can’t afford to live here. It sucks.

3
indigo_breeze•

agreed...it's mainly the locals that get pushed out

3
grad_ml•

poor locals getting pushed out by rich locals :).

0
GaWdLy1•

As a resident of the south bay for 45 of my 45 years, I'd say this is not an unpopular opinion.

Fare thee well former bay areans who are traipsing off to parts unknown. I'd like some room to breathe and drive and for housing to stabilize over everything else.

3
throwawayrenopl•

What kinda entitled bullshit is this? Bitch, you ain’t the only one hiking.

3
Brewskwondo•

Only problem is that CA government likes to spend as if property value is always going up, no corporations will ever leave, and that all new residents are multimillionaires.

2