NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking all the teams in the 4-9 range
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
We've already gone through [Tier 3](https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/p3uwxr/nba_layer_cake_ranking_all_the_teams_in_the_1014/, Tier 4, Tier 5 and Tier 6 and now we'll keep climbing that ladder.
######TIER 2: more CUSTARD / CREAM OF THE CROP
Towards the top of the trifle, Rachel put some more custard. In this case, it'll represent the cream of the crop. Top teams who have a tangible chance (albeit a small one) of winning the NBA championship. Towards that end, we'll rank them in terms of TITLE ODDS more so than regular season records.
(9) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
last year: Despite an embarrassing combustion in the 2020 playoffs, the L.A. Clippers and coach Ty Lue decided to cruise through the regular season (47-25), knowing they had true title together if they could make the playoffs at full strength. The plan worked out perfectly... until they got hurt in the playoffs. The Kawhi-less cast hung on admirably, but ultimately fell 4-2 to Phoenix in the Conference Finals.
losses: The Clippers retained all the major pieces of their roster, but Kawhi Leonard's injury will cloud their entire season. Can he make it back for the playoffs? Does he even want to? Those questions make the team's fate almost impossible to project.
gains: The team added a couple of interesting draft prospects in the athletic Keon Johnson (Tennessee) and the high school stud Brandon Boston (Kentucky.) They also took a flier on Justise Winslow. I don't imagine any of those three will be major factors this next year unless things go wrong.
projected record: Paul George showed that he can carry this team to a pretty good result without Leonard around, so we can count on a solid 46-36 record. But again, it all comes down to Kawhi Leonard. If Leonard is actually going to play in the playoffs (at 100%), then this may be a true title contender. Personally, I felt that the Clippers had a top 3 roster in the league over the last two seasons. If Leonard didn't get hurt, they'd be in the top 3 again. Overall we'll give them a 4% chance of winning the title because that return is feasible. I'd certainly bet against Leonard returning, but it's not impossible.
(8) PHILADELPHIA 76ers
last year: In his debut season with the team, Doc Rivers showcased his strong defensive schemes. The Sixers rose up to the # 2 defense and grabbed the top seed in the East. And in the playoffs, Doc Rivers showcased his playoff... uh... what's the opposite of acumen? Whatever it is, the team flopped and lost 4-3 to the upstart Atlanta Hawks in R2.
losses: It's hard to project the Clippers' season without knowing about Kawhi Leonard, and it's hard to project the Sixers' without knowing the fate of Ben Simmons. He's still on the roster right now, and there's a chance that Daryl Morey lets the tension die down and plays the start of the season out. At the moment, there's been hardly any changeover to the roster so far. Backup big Dwight Howard is gone after a pretty solid season (7.0 points, 8.9 rebounds in only 17.3 minutes.)
gains: Fallen star Andre Drummond will come in and soak up the Dwight Howard minutes. And while Drummond is a punching bag, he also represents solid insurance in case of a Joel Embiid injury. Rookies Jaden Springer (Tennessee) and Filip Petrusev (Serbia) were two of the more underrated prospects in my mind, but neither should expect rotational minutes this year.
projected record: We're all expecting a major shakeup at some point, but if that doesn't happen, it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world. I'd still expected a solid 48-34 record and at least a 3 seed out East. And as long as the Sixers can make the second round at full strength, then anything can happen in the playoffs. We can give them a 4.5% chance of winning it all.
(7) UTAH JAZZ
last year: The league's other top seed, Utah actually had the NBA's best record overall at 52-20. Their advanced stats were even better than that. They finished # 1 in SRS, # 3 in offense, and # 4 in defense. Based on all those factors, they should have been a genuine title contender. Instead, they lost to the Clippers in round two.
losses: Backup Derrick Favors' return to Utah didn't go as well as planned. He only averaged 15 minutes a game, and got sent away after only one season.
gains: In Favors' place, the team added Hassan Whiteside. Like Andre Drummond, he's become vilified by fan bases, but he's certainly qualified to be a backup. Veteran Rudy Gay will also add some depth to the frontcourt. While Gay is more of a 15/20 minute player these days (at age 35), he's still productive in that role. In fact, Gay quietly averaged 19.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season.
projected record: The Jazz didn't end the season on a high note, but they're going to be among the best regular season teams in the league. Rudy Gobert's defense is still the most impactful in the game, and Quin Snyder's style of jacking up 3s (most in the league) is the smart way to play around him. I'm counting on a 52-30 record, and perhaps even better than that. Of course, after grabbing the 1 seed last year, the key is whether or not the Jazz can contend in the playoffs or not. I think they'll have a puncher's chance. Donovan Mitchell can get red hot and win a round or two. It's hard to imagine that happening in every single round though, which makes me think they'll probably peak in R2 or R3 again. We'll list them at 4.5% to win the title, which is lower than their record would indicate.
(6) DENVER NUGGETS
last year: Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets had a great regular season, going 47-25 overall with an SRS power ranking that ranked # 6 in the NBA. Not only was Jokic a legitimate MVP, he probably should have won unanimously. Unfortunately, Jamal Murray got hurt, preventing the team from making a deep run in the playoffs. Phoenix sent them home 4-0 in round two.
losses: Jamal Murray's injury is still the biggest question mark on the team. Besides that, they didn't have many defections. PF Paul Millsap is still a free agent at the moment, although he's become more of a rotational player lately. Last season, he started 36/56 games and averaged 20.8 minutes a night.
gains: Veteran Jeff Green signed a two-year deal and will likely fill the void left behind by Millsap. Green may have been overrated early in his career, but he's reinvented himself as a solid depth player at PF and even smallball center. Rookie Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland (VCU) has some scoring chops, but will likely only play extended minutes if Murray misses even more time than we expect.
projected record: It's really a shame that Murray got hurt, because the Denver Nuggets were shaping up into a possible title contender. They had some of the wind taken out of their sails when they lost Jerami Grant, but a midseason trade for Aaron Gordon helped bring that defensive spark back. At full strength, they may have been a threat for the top seed in the West. Without knowing Murray's future, we'll go with a solid 48-34 record, but an elevated 5% chance at the title. The "upside" of the team is higher than Utah's in my opinion, given Murray's return and Michael Porter Jr.'s ascension. And the "floor" is also higher than the Clippers, because Murray's injury doesn't appear to be as serious as Kawhi Leonard's.
(5) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
last year: A few years after constructing the best team of my lifetime, the Warriors missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. Steph Curry led them to a 39-33 record and won MVP votes in the process, but they stumbled out of the play-in tournament. To their credit, the team played fast (3rd in pace) and played hard (5th in defense), but just didn't have enough talent to get the job done.
losses: Golden State will lose a few small pieces (Kent Bazemore, Eric Paschall, Nico Mannion), but Kelly Oubre stands out as the most impactful. Oubre shot poorly last year, but he was certainly a big piece of the team. He started 50/55 games, averaging 30.7 minutes and 15.4 points per game.
gains: Fortunately the Warriors have a pretty darn good 3+D guy coming back to replace him by the name of Klay Thompson. They also drafted two talented rookies in Jonathan Kuminga (G-League) and Moses Moody (Arkansas), both of whom have starting potential down the road. Vets Nemanja Bjelica and Andre Iguodala may also crack the rotation at some point or another. But honestly, the player that I'm most excited about (save Klay) is Otto Porter Jr. Porter's been injured and forgotten over the last few years, but he could be a major difference maker for the team. He has the height to guard 2-4, and he's a career 40.2% shooter from beyond the arc.
projected record: It's hard to know what the Warriors are getting with Klay Thompson. Steph Curry and Draymond Green are also over 30, and Otto Porter's got some glass parts himself. Given all that, there's a chance that injuries wreak havoc on this team and cause them to play their younger players more than they'd like. I'll pencil them in for a conservative 47-35 for that reason. That said, the upside of this team is undeniable. If Thompson can come back to form (or even 90% of his former self), and Otto Porter can be Harrison Barnes Lite, then the Warriors may be able to trot out a form of the "Death Lineup" once again and be a matchup nightmare in the playoffs. I'm giving them a healthy 7% chance to win the title for that reason. Boom/bust.
(4) PHOENIX SUNS
last year: Even with the addition of Chris Paul, the Suns were projected to have a modest 38.5 wins by Las Vegas. They beat those expectations almost immediately, going 51-21. The doubters remained, but the Suns kept answering, marching all the way to the Finals. Overall, they finished top 3 in SRS, top 5 in offense, and top 10 in defense.
losses: The team brought back Chris Paul, which means the vast majority of the rotation will stay intact. Last season addition Torrey Craig went to Indiana and Jevon Carter left for Brooklyn; both were underrated players, but neither cracked 20 MPG.
gains: James Jones and company made some small tweaks. They added Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet to the backcourt, and big man / gold medalist JaVale McGee to the frontcourt. It'd be a surprise if any of them cracked 20 MPG either.
projected record: Although the Suns made the Finals, we can't pencil them in to the top 5 automatically. Consider this: the last four teams to make the Finals (Toronto, Golden State, L.A. Lakers, Miami) combined to win a grand total of ONE playoff series the following year. It's possible Phoenix could peak in R1/R2. Statistically, you can make the argument for a team like Utah over them. I'm even going to put their regular season numbers a little lower at 51-31. So why are we still putting them in the top 4? Because to me the Suns still have some lingering upside that we haven't seen yet. Deandre Ayton is 23 -- Mikal Bridges is 24 -- Cam Johnson is 25. Heck, even Devin Booker is only 24. If those guys can use the Finals run as fuel to get better and better, the Suns may take another step up. I'd still rank them decidedly below the super teams, but an 8% chance of a title is realistic.
Posted Aug 14, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC