Redistricting Recap Episode 15: Ohio
Previous episodes:
Democrats aren't the only ones with a dummymander! At first, this looks like a brutal 13-2 gerrymander for Republicans. However, with two of those 13 red districts having narrowly gone to Biden in 2020 and one being represented by incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, the split could easily be 10-5 in a neutral year. Because the map was passed along party lines, it is only good until the end of 2025. Thus, we are unlikely to see it in a blue wave year, but 8-7 for Republicans wouldn't be out of reach in that scenario.
#15 OH-11
Incumbent: Shontel Brown (D)
Predecessor: OH-11 (Safe D)
Lean: D+55.5
Ranking: Safe D
Location: Cleveland
#14 OH-3
Incumbent: Joyce Beatty (D)
Predecessor: OH-3 (Safe D)
Lean: D+40.7
Ranking: Safe D
Location: Columbus
#13 OH-2
Incumbent: Brad Wenstrup (R)
Predecessor: OH-2 (Safe R)
Lean: R+39.6
Ranking: Safe R
Location: South Ohio
#12 OH-4
Incumbent: Jim Jordan (R)
Predecessor: OH-4 (Safe R)
Lean: R+38.0
Ranking: Safe R
Location: North Central Ohio
#11 OH-12
Incumbent: Troy Balderson (R)
Predecessor: OH-12 (Lean R)
Lean: R+34.4
Ranking: Safe R
Location: East Central Ohio
#10 OH-5
Incumbent: Bob Latta (R)
Predecessor: OH-5 (Safe R)
Lean: R+28.2
Ranking: Safe R
Location: North Ohio
#9 OH-8
Incumbent: Warren Davidson (R)
Predecessor: OH-8 (Safe R)
Lean: R+27.5
Ranking: Safe R
Location: Southwest Ohio
#8 OH-6
Incumbent: Tim Ryan (D) [running for other office] & Bill Johnson (R)
Predecessor: OH-6 (Safe R) & OH-13 (Tossup)
Lean: R+25.1
Ranking: Safe R
Location: East Ohio
#7 OH-7
Incumbent: Bob Gibbs (R)
Predecessor: OH-7 (Safe R)
Lean: R+21.9
Ranking: Safe R
Location: Northeast Central Ohio
#6 OH-14
Incumbent: David Joyce (R)
Predecessor: OH-14 (Safe R)
Lean: R+14.7
Ranking: Safe R
Location: Northeast Ohio
#5 OH-15
Incumbent: Mike Carey (R)
Predecessor: OH-15 (Safe R)
Lean: R+11.5
Ranking: Lean R
Location: Columbus Suburbs
#4 OH-10
Incumbent: Mike Turner (R)
Predecessor: OH-10 (Lean R)
Lean: R+8.0
Ranking: Lean R
Location: Dayton
#3 OH-1
Incumbent: Steve Chabot (R)
Predecessor: OH-1 (Lean R)
Lean: R+3.1
Ranking: Lean R
Location: Cincinatti
#2 OH-13
Incumbent: Anthony Gonzalez (R) [retiring]
Predecessor: OH-16 (Safe R)
Lean: R+3.4
Ranking: Tossup
Location: Cleveland Suburbs
#1 OH-9
Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D)
Predecessor: OH-9 (Safe D)
Lean: R+7.0
Ranking: Tossup
Location: Toledo
Net change: -1 Safe D, +1 Tossup, -1 Safe R
Running Total: +1 Lean D, -1 Tossup, -8 Lean R, +12 Safe R (+1 D, -1 T, +4 R)
Side note: believe it or not, this series is a third of the way complete! Time flies.
Posted Dec 27, 2021, 11:03 PM UTC