From one Democratic gerrymander to another, we have Maryland. This map has 7 blue seats and 1 purple seat (one which Biden narrowly won in 2020). Unlike Massachusetts and Oklahoma, Maryland does not have geography as an excuse, as the old map did have a red seat. I wouldn't say Maryland is as bad as Illinois, but it is a close second out of the Democratic gerrymanders. (It is also worth noting that, despite Maryland being majority minority by voting age population, that is only true for 3 of the 8 districts.)

#8 MD-4

Incumbent: Anthony Brown (D) [running for other office]

Predecessor: MD-4 (Safe D)

Lean: D+66.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Annapolis

#7 MD-7

Incumbent: Kweisi Mfume (D)

Predecessor: MD-7 (Safe D)

Lean: D+54.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Baltimore

#6 MD-5

Incumbent: Steny Hoyer (D)

Predecessor: MD-5 (Safe D)

Lean: D+37.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: South Maryland

#5 MD-8

Incumbent: Jamie Raskin (D)

Predecessor: MD-8 (Safe D)

Lean: D+25.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: DC Suburbs

#4 MD-3

Incumbent: John Sarbanes

Predecessor: MD-3 (Safe D)

Lean: D+20.3

Ranking: Safe D

Location: North Baltimore Suburbs

#3 MD-6

Incumbent: David Trone (D)

Predecessor: MD-6 (Safe D)

Lean: D+14.9

Ranking: Safe D

Location: West Maryland

#2 MD-2

Incumbent: Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

Predecessor: MD-2 (Safe D)

Lean: D+10.3

Ranking: Lean D

Location: South Baltimore Suburbs

#1 MD-1

Incumbent: Andy Harris (R)

Predecessor: MD-1 (Safe R)

Lean: R+6.6

Ranking: Lean R

Location: East Maryland

Just to clarify what the rankings mean: Lean D seats are the most competitive seats in a red wave, Lean R are the most competitive in a blue wave, and Tossup seats are the most competitive in a neutral enviornment. The seats are ranked from least to most competitive in a hypothetical generic ballot tie.

Net change: -1 Safe D, +1 Lean D, +1 Lean R, -1 Safe R

Running Total: -1 Safe D +5 Lean D, -2 Tossup, -9 Lean R, +10 Safe R (+4 D, -2 T, +1 R)

Posted Jan 2, 2022, 5:28 PM UTC