Arizona's bipartisan commission unanimously approved a map that prioritizes competition. 3 of the 5 Democrats are in redder districts, while 3 of the 4 Republicans are in bluer districts. While the map does put Democrats in a tricky spot in the short-term, the map is overall fair for the long-term.

#9 AZ-3

Incumbent: Ruben Gallego (D)

Predecessor: AZ-7 (Safe D)

Lean: D+46.8

Ranking: Safe D

Location: West Phoenix

#8 AZ-7

Incumbent: Raul Grijalva

Predecessor: AZ-3 (Safe D)

Lean: D+29.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: South Arizona

#7 AZ-9

Incumbent: Paul Gosar (R)

Predecessor: AZ-4 (Safe R)

Lean: R+30.6

Ranking: Safe R

Location: West Arizona

#6 AZ-5

Incumbent: Andy Biggs (R)

Predecessor: AZ-5 (Safe R)

Lean: R+21.8

Ranking: Safe R

Location: South Phoenix Suburbs

#5 AZ-8

Incumbent: Debbie Lesko (R)

Predecessor: AZ-8 (Safe R)

Lean: R+19.2

Ranking: Safe R

Location: West Phoenix Suburbs

#4 AZ-4

Incumbent: Greg Stanton (D)

Predecessor: AZ-9 (Safe D)

Lean: D+3.6

Ranking: Lean D

Location: East Phoenix

#3 AZ-2

Incumbent: Tom O'Halleran (D)

Predecessor: AZ-1 (Tossup)

Lean: R+12.3

Ranking: Lean R

Location: North Arziona

#2 AZ-1

Incumbent: David Schweikert (R)

Predecessor: AZ-6 (Lean R)

Lean: R+4.4

Ranking: Tossup

Location: North Phoenix Suburbs

#1 AZ-6

Incumbent: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) [retiring]

Predecessor: AZ-2 (Lean D)

Lean: R+5.6

Ranking: Tossup

Location: Tuscon

Side note: the leans are based off of 2016 as well as 2020, and are also measured relative to the national popular vote. Biden won the new AZ-1 and AZ-6, which is why they are ranked as Tossups. (The rankings are also based on a hypothetical tied generic ballot)

Net change: -1 Safe D, +1 Tossup

Running Total: -3 Safe D +7 Lean D, -1 Tossup, -9 Lean R, +9 Safe R (+4 D, -1 T)

Posted Jan 5, 2022, 3:12 PM UTC

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