California has 14 more districts than the second biggest state, so it was obviously the most important state to watch. And it delivered. Love or hate the map, there is no denying that it will have a huge impact on the house for the next decade. While I wouldn't call the map a gerrymander, it definitely has some bias towards Democrats. Still, there are some blue seats held by strong Republican incumbents, and a few Democrats are made more vulnerable.

This map is the first to warrant two paragraphs! I wanted to mention that the map is designed to boost the power of hispanic voters. Another thing to mention is that this is the second map, just behind Arizona, to pass unanimously.

#52 CA-12

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

Predecessor: CA-13 (Safe D)

Lean: D+77.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Oakland

#51 CA-11

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

Predecessor: CA-12 (Safe D)

Lean: D+72.1

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Francisco

#50 CA-37

Incumbent: Karen Bass (D) [running for other office]

Predecessor: CA-37 (Safe D)

Lean: D+72.9

Ranking: Safe D

Location: West Los Angeles

#49 CA-34

Incumbent: Jimmy Gomez (D)

Predecessor: CA-34 (Safe D)

Lean: D+64.5

Ranking: Safe D

Location: North Los Angeles

#48 CA-43

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

Predecessor: CA-43 (Safe D)

Lean: D+63.8

Ranking: Safe D

Location: South Los Angeles

#47 CA-29

Incumbent: Tony Cardenas

Predecessor: CA-29 (Safe D)

Lean: D+51.8

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Fernando

#46 CA-8

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

Predecessor: None

Lean: D+51.2

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Solano County

#45 CA-15

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D) [retiring]

Predecessor: CA-14 (Safe D)

Lean: D+54.7

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Mateo County

#44 CA-16

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

Predecessor: CA-18 (Safe D)

Lean: D+50.2

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Silicon Valley

#43 CA-44

Incumbent: Nanette Barragan (D)

Predecessor: CA-44 (Safe D)

Lean: D+48.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Pedro

#42 CA-17

Incumbent: Ro Khanna (D)

Predecessor: CA-17 (Safe D)

Lean: D+46.5

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Santa Clara

#41 CA-30

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

Predecessor: CA-28 (Safe D)

Lean: D+45.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Glendale

#40 CA-2

Incumbent: Jared Huffman (D)

Predecessor: CA-2 (Safe D)

Lean: D+44.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Northwest California

#39 CA-14

Incumbent: Eric Swalwell (D)

Predecessor: CA-15 (Safe D)

Lean: D+42.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Fremont

#38 CA-18

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

Predecessor: CA-19 (Safe D), CA-20 (Safe D)

Lean: D+42.5

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Jose

#37 CA-42

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) [retiring] & Alan Lowenthal (D) [retiring]

Predecessor: CA-40 (Safe D), CA-47 (Safe D)

Lean: D+44.3

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Long Beach

#36 CA-36

Incumbent: Ted Lieu (D)

Predecessor: CA-33 (Safe D)

Lean: D+40.7

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Southwest Los Angeles County

#35 CA-32

Incumbent: Brad Sherman (D)

Predecessor: CA-30 (Safe D)

Lean: D+39.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Fernando Valley

#34 CA-52

Incumbent: Juan Vargas (D)

Predecessor: CA-51 (Safe D)

Lean: D+37.2

Ranking: Safe D

Location: South San Diego

#33 CA-19

Incumbent: Jimmy Panetta (D)

Predecessor: None

Lean: D+35.9

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Central Coast

#32 CA-7

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

Predecessor: CA-6 (Safe D)

Lean: D+34.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Sacramento

#31 CA-10

Incumbent: Mark DeSaulnier (D)

Predecessor: CA-11 (Safe D)

Lean: D+34.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Contra Costa County

#30 CA-4

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

Predecessor: CA-3 (Lean D), CA-5 (Safe D)

Lean: D+32.2

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Santa Rosa

#29 CA-20

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)

Predecessor: CA-23 (Safe R)

Lean: R+30.7

Ranking: Safe R

Location: Kern County

#28 CA-46

Incumbent: Lou Correa (D)

Predecessor: CA-46 (Safe D)

Lean: D+30.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Santa Ana

#27 CA-28

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)

Predecessor: CA-27 (Safe D)

Lean: D+30.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Northeast Los Angeles County

#26 CA-31

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)

Predecessor: CA-32 (Safe D)

Lean: D+30.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: East Los Angeles County

#25 CA-38

Incumbent: Linda Sanchez (D)

Predecessor: CA-38 (Safe D), CA-39 (Tossup)

Lean: D+29.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: East Los Angeles Suburbs

#24 CA-50

Incumbent: Scott Peters (D)

Predecessor: CA-52 (Safe D)

Lean: D+27.3

Ranking: Safe D

Location: West San Diego

#23 CA-35

Incumbent: Norma Torres (D)

Predecessor: CA-35 (Safe D)

Lean: D+27.1

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Inland Empire

#22 CA-24

Incumbent: Salud Carbajal (D)

Predecessor: CA-24 (Safe D)

Lean: D+24.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Southwest California

#21 CA-33

Incumbent: Pete Aguilar (D)

Predecessor: CA-31 (Safe D)

Lean: D+23.7

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Bernardino

#20 CA-1

Incumbent: Doug LaMalfa (R)

Predecessor: CA-1 (Safe R)

Lean: R+23.6

Ranking: Safe R

Location: Northeast California

#19 CA-39

Incumbent: Mark Takano (D)

Predecessor: CA-41 (Safe D)

Lean: D+23.6

Ranking: Safe D

Location: North Riverside County

#18 CA-51

Incumbent: Sara Jacobs (D)

Predecessor: CA-53 (Safe D)

Lean: D+22.0

Ranking: Safe D

Location: San Diego Suburbs

#17 CA-48

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)

Predecessor: CA-50 (Safe R)

Lean: R+18.8

Ranking: Safe R

Location: East San Diego County

#16 CA-21

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

Predecessor: CA-22 (Lean R)

Lean: D+17.5

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Fresno

#15 CA-5

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

Predecessor: CA-10 (Tossup)

Lean: R+17.0

Ranking: Safe R

Location: Modesto

#14 CA-26

Incumbent: Julia Brownley (D)

Predecessor: CA-26 (Safe D)

Lean: D+15.4

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Ventura County

#13 CA-23

Incumbent: Jay Obernolte (R)

Predecessor: CA-8 (Safe R)

Lean: R+15.3

Ranking: Safe R

Location: San Bernardino County

#12 CA-6

Incumbent: Ami Bera (D)

Predecessor: CA-7 (Lean D)

Lean: D+14.3

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Sacramento Suburbs

#11 CA-25

Incumbent: Raul Ruiz (D)

Predecessor: CA-36 (Lean D)

Lean: D+12.7

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Southeast California

#10 CA-9

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

Predecessor: CA-9 (Safe D)

Lean: D+9.3

Ranking: Lean D

Location: San Joaquin County

#9 CA-13

Incumbent: Josh Harder (D)

Predecessor: CA-16 (Safe D)

Lean: D+8.1

Ranking: Lean D

Location: Stanislaus County

#8 CA-41

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

Predecessor: CA-42 (Safe R)

Lean: R+6.5

Ranking: Lean R

Location: South Riverside County

#7 CA-40

Incumbent: Young Kim (R)

Predecessor: CA-45 (Lean D)

Lean: R+4.2

Ranking: Lean R

Location: North Orange County

#6 CA-47

Incumbent: Katie Porter (D)

Predecessor: CA-48 (Lean R)

Lean: D+6.2

Ranking: Lean D

Location: South Orange County

#5 CA-49

Incumbent: Andy Levin (D)

Predecessor: CA-49 (Lean D)

Lean: D+5.6

Ranking: Lean D

Location: North San Diego County

#4 CA-3

Incumbent: None

Predecessor: CA-4 (Safe R)

Lean: R+7.7

Ranking: Lean R

Location: East California

#3 CA-22

Incumbent: David Valadao (R)

Predecessor: CA-21 (Tossup)

Lean: D+10.7

Ranking: Lean D

Location: Central Valley

#2 CA-27

Incumbent: Mike Garcia (R)

Predecessor: CA-25 (Tossup)

Lean: D+7.8

Ranking: Tossup

Location: North Los Angeles County

#1 CA-45

Incumbent: Michelle Steel (R)

Predecessor: None

Lean: D+5.5

Ranking: Tossup

Location: West Orange County

Note that Devin Nunes's seat, currently CA-22, is vacant. Before the midterms, an addition incumbent will be added to California's delegation. They will likely run in CA-3, CA-5, or CA-21.

Net change: +1 Safe D, -2 Tossup, +1 Lean R, -1 Safe R

Running Total: -2 Safe D +7 Lean D, -3 Tossup, -8 Lean R, +8 Safe R (+5 D, -3 T)

Posted Jan 7, 2022, 6:23 PM UTC